I believe he is trying to make a “the media is wrong with their fake news reporting” or something
along those lines or whatnot......
and you are correct—-the google machine will easy bring up those numbers....
I find it interesting after his statement of “Ummmmm. Back to the main question.”
Great perspective. I've also wondered about smoking affects on mortality with CV. The official stats show males die more frequently than females, but so far I have not found any official sources nor major news outlets bring up the smoking coloration possibility. Also, I wonder if the normal flu season cycles will soon reign in the CV in the northern hemisphere.
But the concern is not just about ones individual odds of coming out fine. If !% of the US dies, it will bring about social upheaval that will affect everything. Perhaps some will hit the trails to avoid civilization and the trails will be more crowded.
Italy had just 3 travel related cases until 2/22, when they picked up 6 more. That was 10 days ago. They have 1682 cases and 35 fatalities as of 3/2, a 2% fatality rate. It also takes 2-8 weeks (on average) from onset until death, but only 5 days to incubate. The number of deaths will be lagging behind the rate of new cases, suppressing the case fatality rate until spread slows. This is northern Italy where all the travelers are visiting. Guess that Mediterranean diet isn't so healthy?
There's going to be far fewer internationals on the trail is my guess.
"Sleepy alligator in the noonday sun
Sleepin by the river just like he usually done
Call for his whisky
He can call for his tea
Call all he wanta but he can't call me..."
Robert Hunter & Ron McKernan
Whiteblaze.net User Agreement.
I was wondering the same thing: how might the coronavirus affect the trail (experience) this year?
It's early days, so of course at this point we can only speculate, but here are mine..
1) I think that, based on the recent norovirus outbreaks each year, thru-hikers will not be immune. I suspect that norovirus is more catchy than coronavirus (but I'm sure someone can correct me on this), however.
2) The effects of coronavirus will depend likely be mild for most hikers, because most are young. For older hikers, there may be more of an issue, but I suspect that thru-hikers tend to be in good underlying health to be out there. I think the last place I'd like to be is in a nursing home when this strikes.
3) My reading of the information that's out there would suggest that coronavirus is 10 to 20x more lethal than the normal flu. So, I think it's right to be concerned. Worst-case estimates here in the U.K. are that it could affect 40-70% of the population, which would put a lot of people in the hospital.
In short, I could imagine that some people will be forced off the trail with coronavirus, but because of the demographics (and the ease of social-distancing), the impact may not be dramatic.
(trailname: Paul-from-Scotland)
Here's more info fresh off the press. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/...aphic-factors/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/h...virus-flu.html
I'm wondering how it feels to live paranoid.
Lonehiker (MRT '22)
No paranoia here,pal,just living in reality.People are about to freak out because of CV concerns.I would like to point out though that if I could get 29/30 odds of winning on a dice table in Vegas today I would be packing my bags and head to the airport right now.................
Would you play Russian Roulette with those odds, say with a $100,000 payout?
It is what it is.
Just imagine a theme park ride where 1 out of every 30 riders died. Or even 1 out of 100. Probably some would volunteer to ride, but not me and not my kids.
Call it paranoia or call it prudent. That kind of odds for a disease I have a high chance of getting gets my attention and is something that one might reasonably want to discuss. For those too busy discussing the latest on Meghan Markle to waste their time with Coronavirus paranoia, I accept that you have different interests.
Not paranoid. Living in the Houston area, this reminds me of when there is a hurricane in the Gulf and they are not sure where it is going to go. You might get clobbered or it might not be a problem at all but you need to be aware and pay attention to what is going on.
If you don't stand for something, you will fall for anything.
You guys are making way too much out of this.My point is that even if you or I get CV,the chances of survival are in our favor;especially if you have no other major medical issues currently.It's not a death sentence.
Exactly!
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to learn as we move along (people keep forgetting that we are in the very early stages of this) that the mortality rate is actually even lower than it now appears to be. It's becoming increasingly obvious that there are lots of people who have the virus but exhibit either no symptoms or mild ones and seem to be recovering quite quickly, so the numerator is probably much larger than we currently understand.
... and my point remains. It may not be a death sentence for you... but it may be a death sentence for the old person/young person you pass it along to. It may also trash your hiking season financially and timewise... when you have to recover in a hospital. You may not care if you roll the dice for a 1 in 30 chance of living, but don't roll the dice for the people around you.
Good morning, All. I have found this thread of particular interest because I believe that there are actions to take at this time. Also, it has been reassuring to read that you who have posted are truly concerned not only about giving your hands a soap bath w-h-e-n-e-v-e-r (and don't forget above your wrists). You are weighing the advisability of choosing to stay at shelters while on your hikes. Thank you. I agree for myriad reasons that can be found throughout WB posts. I do want to say though that in my short life I have survived low attendance in school due to colds and annual cases of flu. Pneumonia almost did away with me at age 17 but was frustrated by what was than called miracle drugs. (I was so far gone by that time that I was not able and have never been able to recall what transpired over the 24 hours before I woke up post injections of the wonder drug. Bronchitis became an annual event during the 1980s and 90s until I figured out that the family cat needed to go because maybe allergy to cats was the culprit. Since then I have been basically cold and flu free (20 years or so) as long as I evaluated others at groceries and such as though I were walking through a lion-infested jungle. So. what point am I trying to make? First, I may not make it through this siege. Yesterday I read that 15% of the people in my age group who contract this flu will NOT survive it. Still, I am going shopping for the OTCs that are decongestants, Tylenol for Arthritis, echinacea tea, and, if any is left, the MH freeze-dried meals that I actually like, and sufficient ZONE bars to take care of nutrients and my sweet tooth for 1 month. All can be used when this fright is behind me if I once again can walk on the trail for long distances, even though at my age 5 miles would be an amazing feat. If you read all of this, bless you, but most of all, listen to the heads up and take care of yourselves.
You never know just what you can do until you realize you absolutely have to do it.
--Salaun
Thanks for weighing in. One thing I've pondered even before the CV outbreak is the consequences of passing along the flu. Last time I had the flu, it was no big deal for me. But I don't know who may have caught it from me. Perhaps I passed it along to a couple of strangers, who passed it along to others where someone down that line eventually died. Although I wouldn't consider this to have been a moral failure on my part, it is something to consider and even more so with CV. Both my parents and my in-laws are old enough and in bad enough health to be at serious risk. It may be a time that the younger members of the family work to ensure our aged parents can stay clear of the virus. Perhaps we can do their shopping (and stay away from direct contact ourselves).
But there are numerous affects of this soon to be declared pandemic that don't solely pertain to our chance of survival. For example, if you were about to start a thru-hike and planned on purchasing hand-sanitizer, good luck finding it in the stores. If you were planning on buying freeze-dried meals, good luck with that too. That has nothing to do with paranoia, but is a simple, practical logistical concern related to hiking.