I think I have pinned down my NoBo 2019 Thru hike start date to April 7th. I'm wondering what the weather will be like and what to be prepared for. I currently have a cold weather setup and a warm weather setup.
My cold weather setup is, in addition to my my regular gear:
-Mountain hardware Phantom15, 15 degree down bag
-Down booties (sleep socks)
-possum down gloves and liner gloves that can be paired with rain mitt shells
-waterproof socks for freezing rain or slushy snow hiking (paired with my Altra Lone Peak trail runners)
-Ghost Whisperer down jacket
-wool buff (also have a regular buff and a beanie that I take on warm an cold weather trips)
-long sleeve Smartwool Merino 150 Crew Base Layer
-long bottoms Patagonia capilene 3 (mid weight)
-Microspikes
My Warm weather gear excludes the above and swaps out the Phantom 15 for a Sea-To-Summit Traveler 50 degree down bag / quilt
My regular gear that I take on both warm and cold weather trips
-convertible pants (worn)
-under Armour briefs (worn)
-darn tough socks ( one worn, one packed)
-generic polyester short sleeve shirt
-Altra Lone Peak shoes (worn)
-brimmed hat (worn)
-Arc'teryx long sleeve zip neck polartec fleece pullover (this is a very thin pullover that works perfectly for me for chilly starts and for standing still)
-regular buff (has many purposes and I like to keep it on hand for that reason)
-dirty girl gators (worn)
-Zpacks Duplex Tent
-Sleeping bag silk liner (in warm weather I often just sleep in the liner and have the 50 degree bag next to me just in case. In cold weather it serves to protect the bag from grime and also gives some extra protection from the cold)
-Therm-a-rest Neo Air XLite pad
Questions:
First, from the winter setup, I'm wondering what I can leave at home for the start and end of my thru hike.
Secondly, I'm wondering when I can change to my warm weather setup and if there is anything from the cold weather gear that I should keep such at the puffy jacket.
thirdly, I'm wondering if I will need to get back some of my cold weather gear toward the end of my thru hike and about when.
I am an experienced backpacker and have a moderately fast pace in what I consider the Appalachian foot hills (Red River Gorge, Cumberland Gap, Big South Fork, Etc.), however, I'm not sure how that will change on the AT, but I thought I would not try to push myself. I plan on starting out with 8 to 10 mile days and slowly work up to 15 to 20 mile days. My best estimate is 168 days start to finish ... plus or minus a week or two. In June, I should be in VA around mile 658, July in MD around mile 1046, Aug in MA around mile 1521, and Sept. in ME around mile mile 1928. Again, these are just estimates.
Note, I purposely left out the other gear that I will have that is not relevant to the questions.