I'm planning on a flip-flop hike starting April 15th at Front Royal, VA, going NOBO; then back SOBO from Front Royal. My layers consist of under armor, short sleeve shirt, long sleeve shirt (both synthetic), micro fleece, and rain jacket. Pants, Columbia convertibles over the under armor bottoms. I'm thinking about an additional (regular medium weight) fleece, but my pack is pretty full. I like to be warm, but I'm thinking all these layers ought to be able to do it. The extended forecast for the 12th through 16th is for mid-60s for highs and low-to-mid 40s for lows with a pretty good chance of rain. Thoughts?