If snowing stopped right now and a big heat wave hit then we would probably be looking at a "normal" trail year. But considering we still have the big snow months of Feb, March and April to go through (and May sometimes isn't too shabby) I think we can plan for at the very least an above average year with the possibility of a record year. So what does a record year look like? Look at 2011. Some say 82-83 was bigger but I don't buy it. Mammoth sits smack in the middle of the High Sierras (I lived there for 2 years) and in 82-83' they got 546" of snow but in 10-11' they got 669" (an all time record for them by far). They average 400" a year and that's exactly what they have right now even though they have several more big months to go. So although no one likes to play weatherman more than a couple days out let alone 4 months out, I think it is safe to say we are looking at between an above average year at best to a record breaking year at worst. Which brings me back to 2011.

Here are all the trail journals from 2011:
http://www.trailjournals.com/journal...est_trail/2011
(Balls and Sunshine are one of the best ones)

Here are some YouTube videos from 2011:

Forrester Pass
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_tMtCjq57Y

Fords and "Stream" Crossings
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6KHKa6SeKk

The Whole Trail
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8Ch-f8tjJk&t=639s


A couple things to point out from these records. A little girl who just turned 11 (Sunshine) hiked the entire PCT in this record breaking snow year. So if anyone of you have any doubts of if you can hike it or of prohibitively high dangers then you shouldn't worry. Anyone can do it if they want to. Which brings the question, do you want to? For me my answer is no. I look at all those pictures and videos and all I see is white. Granted we are only talking about the Sierras but for most the Sierras is the main highlight of the whole trail. When I go back into the Sierras I want to see brown trail, green meadows, purple flowers, blue lakes, green trees, and mountains that are both granite grey and snow white. I do not want to see white trail, white meadows, white lakes, buried trees, no flowers, and pure white mountains. This is not even considering that many stretches people were making 1 mph when even with good timing you would be looking at a 9 day resupply. If I am going to invest the amount of time and money to hike the PCT then I want a reasonable level of assured-ness to be able to do the kind of hike I want and to get the experience I want, and seeing nothing but white in the Sierras is not what I am looking for.

So this is my plan. If Mammoth gets more than 550" of snow then I will not be hiking the PCT this year. If they manage to somehow come in at less than 550" then I will hike it with a mid-May start date. That is just my plan based upon my preferences and I certainly understand people's indifference at doing a pure white Sierra and hiking no matter what, but I am a little confused at these people with beginning of April start dates, unless they either plan on hanging out at KM for a month or unless they plan on blazing a white snow covered untracked trail hundreds of miles through the mountains.



(It should be noted I hiked from Red Meadows to Thousand Island Lake on the PCT and back to Red Meadows on the JMT in late July 2011. The PCT was perfectly fine until you got to the Thousand Island Lake area upon which point I was hiking on frozen lake and snow. Thousand Island Lake had a bunch of snow around it and small parts were iced over but there was enough cleared dirt areas around the edges for good camping and the vast majority of the lake was a beautiful glass of water. The hike back on the sun-hidden JMT was mostly snow but not a big deal. I found it actually easier in the snow as I was going downhill and could just slide on my butt for parts. The valley was flooded but walking through 2 feet of water was no big deal).