2013 may be the worst thru-hike season in a very long time.

[Stink Bug]

The numbers of Germans on the trial this year was amazing. If that one documentary could have that affect, one can only imagine what a movie is the US will do......

Talking with Lost and Rolling R, at the Peter's Mountain Shelter, they said that a lot of Germans had also quit the trail as it was too hard and nothing like the documentary they had seen!

[jcheil]

Is it really possible that 2700 people started a Northbound hike this year?

i know that is what the ATC website says but if true, why the spike? Did the southern service providers see a business bonanza?

If that number of people were spread out evenly over 90 days, you'd have an average of 30 people starting every day. And some days would have to be double or triple that or more, right?

I am thinking something might be off-- I hope so.

I was #939 when I checked in on April 10th

[Stink Bug]

I have been waiting for theses stats. It seemed to me almost everybody I hiked with finished so I thought the success rate might be higher. I wonder what caused this illusion?

I am badass aren't I?

Violet, I was under the same impression. Of the massive bubble I left Springer with and hiked with, only 2 dropped off the trail. Like you, I assumed this year would be a bonanza year for NOBO finishers.

Oh and yes, you are badass - totally!

[Grampie]

I was amazed at the number of AT hikers that I met during my thru that said they were "thru-hikers" but only were planing to spend a month or two on the trail. When folks asked me if I was thru-hiking I would reply; "I don't know. I'm just going for as long as I can."
Many AT hikers claim to be thru_hikers but have no intention of staying out for the long haul.

[ALLEGHENY]

I never was given a number on Springer Mt. 02/29/2012 and I never asked for one. Going through the GSMNP I forgot to turn in the permit. At the ATC Office in Harpers Ferry WV I got my photo and given a number 250 something 06/01/2012. After the 176 days from Springer, I night hiked into Baxter making it to the Ranger station about 2am (No one home to give me a stinking number) I hung my hammock for a few hours and made it to the summit before noon 08/23/2012. I know I "thru hiked" touching every white blaze. I did it for me and nobody else. I'm sorry if my hike screwed up your numbers. P-Squared

[Stink Bug]

I was amazed at the number of AT hikers that I met during my thru that said they were "thru-hikers" but only were planing to spend a month or two on the trail. When folks asked me if I was thru-hiking I would reply; "I don't know. I'm just going for as long as I can."
Many AT hikers claim to be thru_hikers but have no intention of staying out for the long haul.

No matter where I was along the trail, and even when I arrived at Abol Bridge, whenever I was asked if I was a thru hiker, I would reply, "Hoping to be!"

[ALLEGHENY]

No matter where I was along the trail, and even when I arrived at Abol Bridge, whenever I was asked if I was a thru hiker, I would reply, "Hoping to be!"

I always replied, no I'm not done hiking when asked if I was through hiking.

[1234]

I took my daughter to springer and she started Mar 23, she signed the register at springer, not amacola, I hiked with her to neels gap, it was cold we went in to warm up and no one said anything about signing in. She got to harpers ferry at 8 they were closed, I met her at Katadhin and I hiked up the hunt trail with her, we signed the register on the post on the board number 2 and 3 for the day. So she went the whole way and never got a number anywhere. So I wonder how she is counted or not counted. She sent in the paperwork. Not much accuracy to the current system. On the 23 I would say an easy 25 started, 10 stayed at the springer mt shelter of those 10 we know of 2 that went all the way and 2 more made it at least to the whites, then we lost track. I have started at springer 6 times and this was by far the most busy I have seen. I will say there are big groups and then nothing, sort of like waves of hikers that move up the trail. And I agree with all of you after 2 hiking movies hit the big screen I have no doubt 10,000 will start the next year. I also think that less than 10% will complete the trail if 10k start. Reason being the trail is not la la land like the TV make everything out to be.

[Son Driven]

At 56 I was clueless, of what I was getting into. Suffered hypothermia and minor frost bite. Several episodes of poison ivy. 3/7/13 Springer, made it 1,177 to Swatara Gap. On 7/4/13 doctor ordered me off trail. Took train, bus, and private shuttle to Baxter park. Katahdin summit on 7/7/13. Made it back to Swatara gap on 10/7/13. Seven months to the day from when I started. Best seven months of my life, and can hardly wait to do it again. The hardest part of the trail is PA, the poison plants rocks suck.

[4shot]

And I agree with all of you after 2 hiking movies hit the big screen I have no doubt 10,000 will start the next year. I also think that less than 10% will complete the trail if 10k start. Reason being the trail is not la la land like the TV make everything out to be.

2 thoughts: 1)if I made gear for a living, whether I was a big corporation or a 1-man shop, I would be looking forward to the release of these 2 movies. I think someone else said it above, Mountain Crossings will also benefit greatly. 2) there is a going to be a surplus of good, slightly used gear the spring after the movies are released. A glut of inventory will drive prices of the used gear well below normal levels.

[Lady Grey]

Son Driven - so glad to see you finished!!

I think the stats are difficult to manage. I started at Springer on March 8 and signed the log, but I was never assigned any kind of number. When I reached Harper's Ferry on May 21 I was number 155. I "jumped" MA and VT, two states I'd hiked already, picked the trail up again at the VT/NH border, and summited Katahdin on July 28. I told the ranger that I'd jumped 242 miles of the trail that I'd already completed, but he still assigned me a number, saying I was the 66th to report in.

I think every year must be tough on the AT. If it isn't one thing, I'm sure it's another. Yes, we had snow in the Smokies, the norovirus around Erwin, TN, and rain through the Whites, but all of this "stuff" sure makes for great stories! I wouldn't have traded my relatively early start for a later start because I loved walking the trail down south with the leaves off the trees. The views on the clear days were spectacular!

Lady Grey (www.trailjournals.com/LadyGrey)

[fishfeet]

Youre not a thru-hiker until you have THRU-HIKED. You wouldnt call yourself a tri-athlete because you were out for a bike ride.
I was #800 i believe from Amicalola on April 2nd.
At HF i was #844. Late June.
At Katahdin i was #444. Sept 21.

At Hawk Mountain shelter i recall 60-70 people in the immediate area camping that night. Yeah, there was alot of people. Then came a Horrific freezing rain storm the next day that i almost died in.....there were ALOT LESS hikers a day or two later.

[Malto]

At Hawk Mountain shelter i recall 60-70 people in the immediate area camping that night. Yeah, there was alot of people. Then came a Horrific freezing rain storm the next day that i almost died in.....there were ALOT LESS hikers a day or two later.

just curious what makes you think you almost died? Challenged, uncomfortable maybe, but almost dying???

[hikerboy57]

just curious what makes you think you almost died? Challenged, uncomfortable maybe, but almost dying???

i was in that ice storm, and trees and branches were crashing down pretty much everywhere. i remember laughing thinking "i could die out here!" it was a little hairy,but i survived. i attribute it to my wearing a lucky survival bracelet.and heck, i would have died happy anyway..i dont think anyone got hurt during the storm though it did chase a lot of people off the trail.

[Pressure D]

I started on April 8th, had a great hike and summited on Oct 9th. I have not applied to the ATC for my 2000 miler certificate yet. I bet many finishers are just like me.

[Zmaidment]

Got a snowplow patch from my man fresh grounds

[takethisbread]

I think most folks don't check in at amicoala falls. I think all check in at HF. that explains that discrepency . I was friends with a few hikers this year, and they all left the trail . injuries, and miserable weather.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[prain4u]

Reason for the high numbers? Bad economy for several years. High unemployment rates (and the ability to get unemployment benefits for a year or more). College grads who can't get good jobs or any job at all (and parents willing to support them). People retiring early when their job suddenly came to an end (or when their jobs became unbearable). The WWII generation dying off and leaving modest inheritances to their kids and grandkids.

For many decades, countless people have dreamed of hiking the AT. Many of them never find a way of getting around to it.

If these same persons are unemployed, have very few job prospects, and have at least a few thousand dollars at their disposal--the chances are increased that they might start pursuing their dreams and hike the AT.