AT Death Rate

[WingedMonkey]

The deaths and injuries due to accidents or individual health issues dont really give me cause for concern. Its tragic, and we should learn what we can from them, but thats that.

Those caused by crime, pathogens, or wildlife are more cause for concern. I.e. those risk factors somewhat outside of our control.

Although I don't have the statistics, I would think you have it backwards.

I think you will find that death on the AT by "crime, pathogens, or wildlife" is miniscule. I can't find any reports of anyone killed on the AT by pathogens or wildlife.

[hikingshoes]

deaths and injuries due to accidents or individual health issues dont really give me cause for concern. Its tragic, and we should learn what we can from them, but thats that.

Those caused by crime, pathogens, or wildlife are more cause for concern. I.e. those risk factors somewhat outside of our control.[/QUOTE]
It's sad that someone passes away,but i think WB and the internet for as that goes is a good tool to have and use. I for one would like to know if anything bad or good is going on in the area where I'm going to hike thats just good planning in my book. HS

[MuddyWaters]

Although I don't have the statistics, I would think you have it backwards.

Nope. It matters not . Unfortunately, .... people die at home too from accidents and health issues.


And you are of course correct, the other risks are quite minimal.

[Rain Man]

... Without being morbid or crazy for sensationalism, I think we have a need to know. We, our families, our friends go out there. If there is something going on beyond the natural hazards, we should be aware.-Kinnickinic

Sawnie, you'll get no argument from me, except maybe for the need/want qualification and except for the qualification that I want honest information, put in perspective. And you are right, those being morbid or just sensationalizing things are worst than no help at all. Okay, here's another exception ... I do want to know about natural hazards on the AT. Those folks are just as dead. How's that for full agreement with a trilogy of qualifications?!

I do not care for folks lumping deaths OFF the trail with those on the trail. To me, that is just sensationalizing (inflating) the numbers falsely and skews perception when done without full disclosure. I consider the AT to be a very safe place to be, but some hikers need to stay home and hold their mama's hands, and inaccurate scare stories don't help them at all. It just reinforces their irrational fears and irrational conduct.

RainMan

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[Wise Old Owl]

Older List : http://southeasternoutdoors.com/outd...l-murders.html

The Appalachian Trail, like most parks and hiking areas in America is relatively safe. With over 3 million hikers visiting various sections of the trail per year, there have only been 9 murders along the trail since 1974, and according to the ATC an average of about 1 rape every 3 years.
One unusual aspect about the Appalachian Trail murders is that three incidents have been double murders. In two of those cases one of the victims was male.

• Georgia - May 1974, Joel Polsom, 26, of Hartsville, South Carolina was murdered and his female companion kidnapped by the killer at the Low Gap Trail Shelter in White County Georgia, which is in the Chattahoochee National Forest. Michigan fugitive Ralph Fox was later captured
• Tennessee - April 1975, Thru-hiker Janice Balza, 22, of Madison, Wisconsin was killed by a hatchet at Vandeventer shelter in northeast Tennessee. Hiker/tree surgeon Paul Bigley, 51, was convicted of her murder and died in prison .
• Virginia - May 1981, Susan Ramsay murdered while hiking along the AT with Robert Mountford Jr. Murderer Randall Smith was paroled after only 15 years for this double murder. After his release Smith tried to kill to two more people in the same area.
• Virginia - May 1981, Robert Mountford Jr. (and Susan Ramsay) were murdered while hiking along the AT. Murderer Randall Smith who was paroled after only 15 years and years later returned to the same area and tried to kill two more people.
• Pennsylvania - May 12, 1988, Rebecca Wight was shot dead and her partner, Claudia Brenner, was seriously wounded.
• Pennsylvania - September 12, 1990, Molly LaRue, 25, of Shaker Heights, Ohio and her fiancé from Tennessee were killed at the Thelma Marks Shelter on the AT south of Duncannon, Pa
• Pennsylvania - September 12, 1990, Geoffrey Hood, 26, of Signal Mountain, Tennessee was shot to death as he slept in the Thelma Marks Shelter on the A.T. south of Duncannon, Pa
• Shenandoah National Park, Virginia - May 28, 1996, Julianne Williams, 24, (and Lollie Winans) were bound and had their throats cut while hiking and camping near Bridle Trail and the Appalachian Trail. There bodies were found less than 1/4 mile from the road. This crime remains unsolved.
• Shenandoah National Park, Virginia - May 28, 1996, Lollie Winans, 26 (and Julianne Williams) were bound and had their throats cut while hiking and camping near Bridle Trail and the Appalachian Trail. This crime remains unsolved.
  
  
  

[coach lou]

[QUOTE
RainMan

.[/QUOTE]

You Sir, are one of the folks that I WANTED to hear from. You have been on this site since '03', so you would have that memory, and knowlege. My question was... are all these deaths, recorded this season, is this normal, or are there alot this year or less this year? Correct, I'm not looking for all the morbid sensationalizing, or some reason to stay off the trail.

[coach lou]

[QUOTE
RainMan

.

You Sir, are one of the folks that I WANTED to hear from. You have been on this site since '03', so you would have that memory, and knowlege. My question was... are all these deaths, recorded this season, is this normal, or are there alot this year or less this year? Correct, I'm not looking for all the morbid sensationalizing, or some reason to stay off the trail.[/QUOTE]

Oh, I should have waited, WOO has some facts for me!

[coach lou]

Older List : http://southeasternoutdoors.com/outd...l-murders.html

The Appalachian Trail, like most parks and hiking areas in America is relatively safe. With over 3 million hikers visiting various sections of the trail per year, there have only been 9 murders along the trail since 1974, and according to the ATC an average of about 1 rape every 3 years.
One unusual aspect about the Appalachian Trail murders is that three incidents have been double murders. In two of those cases one of the victims was male.

• Georgia - May 1974, Joel Polsom, 26, of Hartsville, South Carolina was murdered and his female companion kidnapped by the killer at the Low Gap Trail Shelter in White County Georgia, which is in the Chattahoochee National Forest. Michigan fugitive Ralph Fox was later captured
• Tennessee - April 1975, Thru-hiker Janice Balza, 22, of Madison, Wisconsin was killed by a hatchet at Vandeventer shelter in northeast Tennessee. Hiker/tree surgeon Paul Bigley, 51, was convicted of her murder and died in prison .
• Virginia - May 1981, Susan Ramsay murdered while hiking along the AT with Robert Mountford Jr. Murderer Randall Smith was paroled after only 15 years for this double murder. After his release Smith tried to kill to two more people in the same area.
• Virginia - May 1981, Robert Mountford Jr. (and Susan Ramsay) were murdered while hiking along the AT. Murderer Randall Smith who was paroled after only 15 years and years later returned to the same area and tried to kill two more people.
• Pennsylvania - May 12, 1988, Rebecca Wight was shot dead and her partner, Claudia Brenner, was seriously wounded.
• Pennsylvania - September 12, 1990, Molly LaRue, 25, of Shaker Heights, Ohio and her fiancé from Tennessee were killed at the Thelma Marks Shelter on the AT south of Duncannon, Pa
• Pennsylvania - September 12, 1990, Geoffrey Hood, 26, of Signal Mountain, Tennessee was shot to death as he slept in the Thelma Marks Shelter on the A.T. south of Duncannon, Pa
• Shenandoah National Park, Virginia - May 28, 1996, Julianne Williams, 24, (and Lollie Winans) were bound and had their throats cut while hiking and camping near Bridle Trail and the Appalachian Trail. There bodies were found less than 1/4 mile from the road. This crime remains unsolved.
• Shenandoah National Park, Virginia - May 28, 1996, Lollie Winans, 26 (and Julianne Williams) were bound and had their throats cut while hiking and camping near Bridle Trail and the Appalachian Trail. This crime remains unsolved.
  
  
  

WOO thanks, but what about accidents, which most of this years deaths seem to be.

[Wise Old Owl]

Rainman we have both been here long enough to realize there are hazards in everything, was it last year a teacher fell off a cliff while "leading" a group of school kids on the AT? Off the trail can mean a trail town where the trail runs through the town and that stuff doesn't get counted at all. Its not inflating numbers if it happens on the same hill or mountain. I guess I am not following you on this. And you can tell from my posts _ i do not care for irrational fears, because I deal with dysfunctional fear in pest control on the part of the clients. I wish I could show you the reactions of people who have an infestation of bed bugs in their home. All I can do is educate them and we are going to solve their problem.


Couch lou - I don't think its tracked at all.

[WIAPilot]

And then of course there was the Scott Lilly murder in 2011 and the rape/stabbing just a month or so ago where the female hiker was not killed.

[WingedMonkey]

I do not care for folks lumping deaths OFF the trail with those on the trail.

Yes it is stupid to try and list attacks that didn't happen on the AT to the trail.

[Wise Old Owl]

WiA Pilot that was an old list - I am still looking for the modern one that includes Stonewall - these lists are incomplete.... and I don't see an issue with incidents that happen on blue trails that pour into the AT being included.

I cannot find a "accident/suicide/list" but there are loads of accident articles out there. Suicides are not reported or tracked at all... The press will not do it, it is part of their code.

[bamboo bob]

One other factor might be whether deaths and assaults are defined as being on trail only if they are on the white blazed trails but not on blue blaze side trails or trail heads. My point being that "off trail" incidents may be more pertinent than not. Also the fact that the AT is used by millions is not really germane . Murders/thruhikers i.e. 1 murder per 1300 thruhikers is a pretty large crime statistic. Or maybe per night camped on the trail . 150 nights times 1300 thruhikers. We might need an FBI statistician to determine whats risky and not risky. The number of incidents per camped hiker has got to be minuscule no mater how it's parsed.

[Cookerhiker]

What about all the weather-related deaths in the White Mountains over the years. Some are "near" the AT, some perhaps on it. But because the Whites' trail system predates the AT, the AT route is still known to locals by the original name e.g. Crawford Path, Webster Cliff trail, and chances are those local names are used in any reporting by the news media.

[WingedMonkey]

How many folks were robbed at huts in The Whites?

[jeffmeh]

A little perspective, similar to a post I made in May:

For round numbers, let's say there have been 10 murders on or around tha AT since 1974. The ATC estimates between 2-3 million hikers on the AT per year. If we said all 10 murders occurred in one year (they did not, as the first was in 1974, almost 40 years ago), when 2 million hikers were on the AT, the intentional homicide rate per 100,000 people would be 0.5. If we said 1 murder occurred in a year it would be 0.05 per 100,000 people. The last year for which there are statistics (2010) puts the intentional homicide rate across the US as 4.8 per 100,000. So your odds of being murdered in the US in general are almost 100 times more than they are of being murdered on the AT.

If you don't walk around every day worrying about being murdered, then with almost 100 times less risk of that on the trail why would you worry about it?

In no way am I suggesting that one should not remain vigilant and aware of one's surroundings.

[Blue Jay]

If you really want to be scared, and clearly some of you do, add the number killed getting to the trail by car.

[Wise Old Owl]

Blue Jay that too would be a very low number 6000 deaths in the USA per year are auto accident related. It would be less than 50.

Getting back to the original post about folks dying on the trail - accidents and heart attacks - I am going to ponder something that I picked up on a long time ago that more green footed people are reading a book or getting infomation on the internet and hiking the trail will little knowledge or little excersise... If I pulled a group of pictures of the crowd at the Pinnicle in the past all were skinny as a rail today I see some very heavy people including myself. So going forward this is going to happen a lot more why?... Look at one very healthy athlete - Jim Fixx You can build muscle and health but you cannot exercise and build heart muscle.

Here is the reference.


On July 20, 1984, Fixx died at age 52 of a fulminant heart attack, after his daily run on Vermont Route 15 in Hardwick. The autopsy revealed that atherosclerosis had blocked one coronary artery 95%, a second 85%, and a third 70%.^[3] Although there were opponents of Fixx's beliefs^[who?] who said this was evidence that running was harmful, medical opinion continued to uphold the link between exercise and longevity.^[4] In 1986 exercise physiologist, Kenneth Cooper, published an inventory of the risk factors that might have contributed to Fixx's death.^[5] Granted access to his medical records and autopsy, and after interviewing his friends and family, Cooper concluded that Fixx was genetically predisposed (his father died of a heart attack at age 43 and Fixx himself had a congenitally enlarged heart), and had several lifestyle issues. Fixx was a heavy smoker prior to beginning running at age 36, he had a stressful occupation, he had undergone a second divorce, and his weight before he took up running had ballooned to 220 pounds (100 kg).^[6]

[Blue Jay]

Blue Jay that too would be a very low number 6000 deaths in the USA per year are auto accident related. It would be less than 50.

Therefore the question remains why are inquiring minds so obsessed with death on the AT.

[Rain Man]

• Pennsylvania - May 12, 1988, Rebecca Wight was shot dead and her partner, Claudia Brenner, was seriously wounded.
• Shenandoah National Park, Virginia - May 28, 1996, Julianne Williams, 24, (and Lollie Winans) were bound and had their throats cut while hiking and camping near Bridle Trail and the Appalachian Trail. There bodies were found less than 1/4 mile from the road. This crime remains unsolved.
• Shenandoah National Park, Virginia - May 28, 1996, Lollie Winans, 26 (and Julianne Williams) were bound and had their throats cut while hiking and camping near Bridle Trail and the Appalachian Trail. This crime remains unsolved.

Unless I'm mistaken (and please correct me if I am), none of these occurred on the AT.

RainMan

.