Map Man's Mean Miles/Day in a Visual

[jeffmeh]

For those of us who comprehend data better in pictures than in characters, lol.AT Mean Pace.jpg

[map man]

Thanks, jeffmeh, for making the effort to do this. One thing that strikes me while looking at it is that this shows the relatively steady increase in miles per day in the first 20% of the trail as hikers get their trail legs.

[rocketsocks]

Thanks, jeff mah, for making the effort to do this. One thing that strikes me while looking at it is that this shows the relatively steady increase in miles per day in the first 20% of the trail as hikers get their trail legs.

And the adage 80% of the miles and 20% of the effort,Thank you both.

[jeffmeh]

No problem. Actually, my son is on the AT now and has a deadline for finishing, and I wanted to get some insight into likely paces in different sections. I suspect that the shape of the "curve" is a reasonable approximation even for those hiking faster or slower. He's averaging around 18 miles/day and should hit Damascus today. He expects to bring that average up and that seems like a reasonable expectation. He is intimately familiar with Glencliff to Gorham, so he knows what awaits him.

[jeffmeh]

And thank you Map Man for doing all the work that made throwing the chart together pretty simple. I also calculated the cumulative average (miles/day) for the entire trip at each waypoint. In case you are interested:

Destination	Cum Average
Georgia Border	9.4
Fontana	10.3
Damascus	11.4
Waynesboro	12.3
Harpers Ferry	12.6
DWG	12.8
Kent	12.9
Glencliff	13.1
Gorham	12.9
Stratton	12.8
Katahdin	12.9

[jeffmeh]

Achilles AT Northbound Pace 20120323.jpgAnd using the above data as a benchmark, I can see how my son's trip is progressing....

[jeffmeh]

Smoothing out the benchmark line (continuous rather than step-function).... Achilles AT Northbound Pace 20120323.jpg

[jeffmeh]

Here's one more, again showing the Mean Miles/Day by Section, but adding the cumulative Miles/Day line. Fun with data, lol.AT Mean Pace.jpg

[jeffmeh]

The boy has reached Waynesboro, VA. Here's an updated chart.

Achilles Pace 2012-04-08.jpg

[map man]

Wow, your son is really motoring. No zero days if I'm seeing the illustration right. A 100 day hike (or less) if he keeps moving like he is. Most folks who leave Springer the last few days of February don't have to worry about getting to Vermont before mud season (traditionally mid-April through May) is over!

All these illustrations look great, by the way.

[jeffmeh]

Thanks Map Man. He is definitely moving. It is difficult to see a zero day on the chart (I opted to show cumulative mileage rather than daily mileage; showing both made the chart too busy IMO), but there is one at 3/14. He took another yesterday, but the chart does not yet reflect it.

He is planning on slowing down a bit, as he has learned that he values company over speed. Apparently, one can learn many things on the trail, lol.

[Tom Murphy]

Wow , that is a strong pace out of the gate.

I am following the trail journal of another son of New England, Float. He is racking up the miles as well.

Shows that hiking in NH, VT, and ME are good conditioning for a thru hike. Probably also helps to have young knees.

[jeffmeh]

After completing all of the NH 4000 footers, Mahoosuc, and Katahdin, I don't think that he finds any of the terrain thus far particularly intimidating. The youth, excellent physical condition (former wrestler), and embracing of hiking poles does not hurt either. The irony around the hiking poles is that he had some serious back issues at age 15, so started with them then and has never looked back. I suspect that over the long term that is going to pay huge dividends.

[Malto]

Curious on the data for the chart..... Was this only for hikers that made it all the way or did it include hikers that quit as well? That would have a huge impact on the data set.

[jeffmeh]

Map Man's original thread, now an article, is here: http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/cont...-and-Schedules)

The short answer, "This study is limited to north bound thru-hikers (NOBOs) who completed their hike in one hiking season and passed ten section defining landmarks along the way in south to north chronological order (though the study does include hikers taking occasional SOBO dayhikes within sections). The sample sizes would not be large enough yet for me to make a meaningful study of SOBOs or flip-floppers, but someday I would like to replicate this study for SOBOs."

[jeffmeh]

He hit the midpoint on 4/21, and this one puts that into perspective.

Achilles AT Northbound Pace 20120421.jpg

[jeffmeh]

I am pleased to report that Achilles summitted Katahdin yesterday, and my wife and I were fortunate enough to be able to join him. Here is the final chart. He was slowed down toward the end by injury and by tragedy, but he persevered. We are very proud of him.

Lastly, if anyone likes the chart and is interested, I would be happy to pass along the Excel spreadsheet I used to put it together.

Achilles AT Northbound Pace 20120629.jpg

[Mountain Mike]

Congrats to him for his finish! I hope he enjoys his accomplishments despite the tragedy so close to the end. It was great of him to do what he did.

[WIAPilot]

Thanks for this, Jeff. I just printed it out. Our prayers are with your son.

[Driver8]

Congrats to him for his finish! I hope he enjoys his accomplishments despite the tragedy so close to the end. It was great of him to do what he did.

+1 Jeff, your son did great and is a fine young man. I hope that with time and perspective he can see and accept that he did everything he possibly could that fateful day, that it was by no means his fault, and that he and his fellowship of thrus honors Parkside deeply for the stretch of trail he himself didn't get to hike. My heart goes out to Achilles - he and the others close to Parkside are in my thoughts and prayers.