WhiteBlaze Pages 2024
A Complete Appalachian Trail Guidebook.
AVAILABLE NOW. $4 for interactive PDF(smartphone version)
Read more here WhiteBlaze Pages Store

Page 5 of 9 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 LastLast
Results 81 to 100 of 164
  1. #81

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dogwood View Post
    It may just be my illusion but it's my best guess a SOBO JMTer starting at Happy Isles in early July this year will not be faced with some kind of winter wonderland hike as illustrated in the pics above!
    The point of the pix above is: in a normal May, you don't see a winter wonderland up there. Instead, you'd find seriously suncupped snow that is melting away quickly, not conditions for perfect ski runs.

    Meanwhile, it is apparently snowing again in Mammoth tonight, and there's another shot at snow on the weekend. Time for that hot sprng is running out, and with each cold week that goes by now in spring, the snow will last one week longer into the summer.

  2. #82

    Default

    No, I didn't miss the story about the guy who just started. While that story is interesting and details CURRENT snow conditions in the Sierras it DOES NOT FULLY address snow conditions when the two perspective JMT thru-hikers on this thread plan on starting THEIR JMT thru-hikes, who I mainly was addressing in my posts on this thread. One of them started this thread and by the title of it one of their concerns should be obvious. I attempted to alleviate some of that concern, not elevate it!

    I, and I thought you, were following their perspective hikes. You certainly provided much worthy advice in other threads when they asked questions about the JMT. I thought you were aware of their start times. I thought by now after all my posts it should be very obvious where I've been going -don't act prematurely with regard to trail conditions that will be experienced 4-6 weeks from now! Conditions will be different.


    While having a detailed long term play by play weather review leading up to their July starts might help prepare for trail conditions for when they start they REALLY DO NOT YET HAVE A FULL picture of trail conditions for when they will start in 5-6 wks. That is best determined with trail reports/conditions nearer to when they hike the JMT. While posting pics of recent snow accumulations and conditions are quite stunning they don't accurately or fully portrait what those conditions will be like in 5-6 wks! Now, do they?


    Not saying this is THE WAY it will be in 5-6 wks but, perhaps, MUCH of the "Worried About Snow Conditions" thinking MIGHT NOT be as BIG of a concern in 5-6 wks!


    Just a thought.


    Too bad about the Whitney portal store. It seems like you would be a great asset there with your knowledge of the Sierras. With your love affair with the Sierras(I love it too!) I suspect one day you might live closer to it than Wisconsin.

  3. #83

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dogwood View Post
    I, and I thought you, were following their perspective hikes. .
    to me the thread appears to be generally about the snow conditions, not just the two hikers and their plan. I figured others with different plans could benefit from the info, too. I also didn't mean to imply anywhere that the snow conditions in the summer would resemble May. In fact, if I were to cross teh Sierras with snow, I'd prefer the May snow over what comes in June when the snow cupping begins to get extreme.

    Based on the snow fall numbers, the cool spring weather so far, I think it's safe to say now that this summer will have more snow than last year, and last year was already a rather white July for the JMT average.

    What happens in May has a lot of impact on what you get in July. We are only a few weeks away from July, and in a below average year, you'd be able to hit Donohue Pass on July 4 and not touch any snow. We are well beyond that condition. I'd say in 2011, you have to go up there on August 4 to not touch any snow on the trail.

    FWIW, I base that on 23 years of Sierra experience, always with a slant towards early season. I am a sucker for snow on passes - without that, the Sierra loses its alpine character for me and becomes little more than a crowded pretty horse trail. Early season means less hikers, more water, more color, more flowers, and a real big mountain feel up on the passes. You pay for it with the mosquitoes, and some folks may have to modify their gear choices if they planned on a sunny and dry mid summer trip. Bascially, I've never hiked the trail in August. That month would be my lat choice for a JMT hike. Only once was I there in September, the rest was all late June through late July, or months well outside the popular JMT window.

    Based on those recent May snow reports, I am 99% certain that unless you actually are looking for snow like I am, you will have less than desireable conditions before mid July, possibly later, depending on what your idea of "too much snow" is. Too many parameters make it difficult to predict a general date for when it is "good to go" for somebody else, as you don't know what their response to snow will be. I've seen many hikers hit snow on these passes for the first time in their hiking days, and most of them handled it just fine. Only a few responded with extreme caution, usually triggered by the realization that their trail runners had very limited grip. But even they made it, because compared to climbing steep snow couloirs on big mountains the JMT snow fields are pretty safe terrain. Just totally new for many hikers.

    The "danger" areas are very limited even when there is a lot of snow, so unless you have a snow-phobia, conditions will never really be that bad to wreck your hike when you start after June 15. It's just going to change from slushy wet stuff at 10,500 to solid snow above 11,500 in mid June to slushy snow above 11,500 in mid July. As always, early mornings on frozen snow are the most dangerous hours of the day, and that only really matters on Mather (north) and Forester (south) where slipping can actually result in a dangerous slide, but those areas are very limited (a few steps here and there). For the most part, it's just a different kind of trail.

    So based on what I have seen so far, here is what I predict for a July 15 start this year:

    • - some snow on Cathedral Pass and some patches east of the pass into the woods.

    • - snow on Donohue will start above the crossing of Lyell Fork, with solid snow above the second crossing, all the way across the top and down to the valley floor on the south ramp, about where the first small trees start growing.

    • - Island Pass will be snowy from before you reach the top, as that approach in the north is protected from the sun. Only small patches down to 1000 Island Lak. The top of the pass will be snow free for the most part, with some patches in protected areas

    • - smaller patches on and off on the many ridges that follow before dropping to Reds.

    • - no idea about the section above Reds, as I rarely go there. It's not very high and very exposed to south and western sun, so probably no real issues there.

    • - definitely snow at Silver Pass, probably starting just above the last lake. Big snow field and not safe in the early morning when frozen hard. south side should be almost clear. There were only small patches on that side last year.

    • - Selden Pass isn't a big snow pass - just patches there last year, and even if there's more, it probably will have the least snow of any pass, pending local weather abnormalities.

    • - Muir Pass - serious snow. That area is a different climate zone. It all begins before Wanda Lake and depending on when you hit it, there may be little trail beyond Wanda and the next time you'll see it is down below Helen Lake on the other side. It won't be quite as bad as this image http://picasaweb.google.com/dirtybrew/PCT2HighSierras#5526393588171131714 but that may not even be a good thing, as the slushy melting snow we had a month after that image was very difficult to hike on.

    • - Mather - steep pass, and with snow the north side of it can be one of the more difficult places, especially if you should get off trail (easy to lose since many times the snow tracks hit rocks and the previous group would use the rocks to continue up). Always good to know where you ultimately have to end up. If in doubt on Mather, climb up on the rocks towards the east or south east - eventually you will see where to go. But caution, even the bigger rocks can be loose...

    • - Pinchot will have some snow fields on the north side, but nothing that will slow you down. Most cases you will be able to bypass them. South flank could get a littel sketchy if there's a lot of snow.

    • - Glen is among the tougher passes with snow - the north side especially, where with a lot of snow the trail gets completely buried and it is a steep pass, with very loose talus between the switchbacks. So the more you can stick to the trail the better, but for a while the terrain is rather steep and you will be happy to see footprints that give you some assurance to be on the right track. South of Glen the trail is cut in a very loose flank of the mountain and even if the switchbacks are snowed in, you want ot stay on that route, on top of the snow, rather than get into the steep loose scree that makes up the upper south flank of the pass. Very early in the season, there can be some tricky snow fields and going down is even harder than up because of the different perspective http://picasaweb.google.com/dirtybre...93176541430930

    • - Forester - snow will begin for real just as you come around the last bend onto the ridge that opens up the final view to the pass, and it will most likely be one big snow field from there, but nothing really dangerous. South of the pass then the pucker zone at the deeply cut couloir just below the summit - here on June 8, 2010:http://picasaweb.google.com/dirtybre...92990376826514

    • That place will have a proper trail cut through it by mid July but when frozen in the morning, it is a real danger zone. If you have an ice axe, that will be the place you will feel good about having brought it. You'll also be putting on whatever crampons you have.

    • - Trail Crest is usualy not very snowy until you begin the descent to the Portal. Nothing really up on the trail to Whitney. There is very little snow now. But down lower on the switchbacks, where all that snow from the top has been deposited, you'll probably have a lot of snow on some switchbacks. Should not be a big deal with all the traffic on that route, though. Down at the cables it may be the only place where you will want to be very careful, especially if the packed snow trail is above the cables.
    Having seen total rookies in higher than normal snow years, I don't remember anyone ever turning back. There's some learning experiences that come early on, and after you know where to watch for possible weak snow (melt from below), it's business as usual. Only adds to the adventure. My kids were very cautious the first few times on snow fields, but now, after two rather snowy summers, the white stuff doesn't bother them at all.

    It is really just the deep crossings that worry them, and for good reason, given their bodies are much more likely to be carried away. Where the water gets deep or moves fast, I carry their gear across and then walk each of them across in a pair to maximize their safety. So instead of walking Bear Creek once through deep water, I went 9 times last year. Gives you a new perspective - it's really not that dangerous if you focus and know how to move safely. The cold water won't get you in summer, given even 9 back-to-back careful crossings just numbed the pain. The first one is always the coldest.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dogwood View Post
    Too bad about the Whitney portal store. It seems like you would be a great asset there with your knowledge of the Sierras. With your love affair with the Sierras(I love it too!) I suspect one day you might live closer to it than Wisconsin.
    Well, there are other plans in the works. Working all summer at the store may actually not be the best way to enjoy the Sierra... And then there are those kids who first need to get to college before I can become a real mountain bum.

  4. #84
    AT 4000+, LT, FHT, ALT Blissful's Avatar
    Join Date
    07-14-2005
    Location
    Virginia, 10 miles from the AT near SNP
    Age
    61
    Posts
    10,470
    Journal Entries
    1
    Images
    171

    Default

    Hope this holds true for a July 7th start (ours) as I plan to print it out.

    Maybe also best guess as to water crossings and levels, where to access etc?







    Hiking Blog
    AT NOBO and SOBO, LT, FHT, ALT
    Shenandoah NP Ridgerunner, Author, Speaker


  5. #85

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Blissful View Post
    Hope this holds true for a July 7th start (ours) as I plan to print it out.

    Maybe also best guess as to water crossings and levels, where to access etc?

    July 7 = one week of melt less, and more likely to meet my description. Worst case, the whole thing starts a few feet lower down. Definitely want to bring boots you know have good grip on snow and won't soak through. If in doubt, treat any leather with SnoSeal - that stuff really works.

    A list for what crossing will be deep is short. A list that covers all potential difficulties when crossing would be very long and not really helpful. I'll have to think that over, because conditions on creeks really vary with daytime temps and can be dramatically different just because of short term weather changes. I suppose a worst scenario list may help, but then I don't think I have seen every crossing at their worst.

  6. #86
    Registered User ChinMusic's Avatar
    Join Date
    05-22-2007
    Location
    Springfield, Illinois, United States
    Age
    65
    Posts
    6,384

    Default

    Thanks so much for your predictions. I have been waiting for a guess like this for my trip with my daughter starting 7/18. I'm HOPING for a bit of snow on Cathedral Pass. Also the late snow should be beautiful.
    Fear ridges that are depicted as flat lines on a profile map.

  7. #87

    Default

    Different part of the country, but they also had record snow fall in Yosemite; curious to see how this plays out on the JMT. http://www.abc27.com/story/14744082/...ite-waterfalls

    Record snow makes spectacular Yosemite waterfalls

    YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK, Calif. (AP) - Water, water everywhere - and it's a spectacular sight.

    Record Sierra snowfall over the winter now means record snow melt as temperatures rise, swelling Yosemite National Park's iconic waterfalls, streams and rivers to their most turbulent level in years.

    Yosemite Falls, the nation's tallest, is spewing enough water to fill a gasoline tanker truck every two seconds. The force of water at Bridalveil Falls across the valley kicks up a mist that clouds the meadow below.

    It means that until the peak melt around mid-June, visitors will experience more treacherous beauty in Yosemite than even the travel brochures promise.

    "Breathtaking, that's what it is," said Lynne Bousie of Scotland, who stopped to pose for a photograph at the spot where the paved trail to Yosemite Falls makes a turn and the first full view of its entire 2,425-foot drop comes into view.

    Water cascading from the many signature falls that cut across Yosemite's granite walls (as well as countless unnamed ones that spout only in peak years like this) is swelling the Merced River. For the next few months the roar of violently churning water will drown out all other background noise in the park.

    "Some falls that you can see now don't have names and aren't even on the map," said park spokeswoman Kari Cobb.

    Already the frigid, 40-degree river that drains Yosemite Valley's snowmelt is flowing at more than 1,600 cubic feet per second, carrying people and objects away at more than 10 mph.

    "That's infinitely more powerful than anyone can imagine," said Moose Mutlow, coordinator of Yosemite's swift water rescue program, which began practicing for the season on Thursday. "You can't keep up with someone if the water is that fast and you're running and dodging trees."

    Even minor creeks and streams are flowing hard, which has forced closure of a few campsites. Because of the mild spring, the danger of flooding has been reduced.

    Thanks to a snowpack twice as deep as usual park officials say the ephemeral falls like Yosemite that dry up in early summer will still by flowing into August. For the first time in a long time record melt and the peak visitor season are falling on the same weekend.

    Yosemite Valley was carved eons ago by the ebb and flow of glaciers over many ice ages. The sheer 3,000-foot granite cliffs drain multiple watersheds, each sending a cascade of water into Yosemite Valley. Some flow for only a few weeks - or in dry years not at all.

    It's a dangerous beauty both in its force and in the allure that draws some people near. Rangers warn visitors to keep a safe distance and to be mindful the water makes granite boulders slippery.

    Two people died earlier this month in accidents that might have been attributed to the water. One visitor slipped and fell below Yosemite Falls, where raging water sends a wet shroud over trails and rocks. Another fell into the Merced River, where he swiftly was carried about 150 yards and lodged under a rock. It is presumed he drowned.

    Only three of Yosemite's dozens of waterfalls can be counted on to flow all year -- Bridalveil, Vernal and Nevada, and the last two require a steep hike. For a few more weeks, however, even those without the stamina for long walks can experience something rare and special.

    "We are very lucky the timing was right," said James Ayres of England as he gazed at Yosemite Falls. "This is incredible."

  8. #88

    Default

    Correction: I was thinking the JMT was in Colorado.

  9. #89

    Default

    The "danger" areas are very limited even when there is a lot of snow, so unless you have a snow-phobia, conditions will never really be that bad to wreck your hike when you start after June 15. Helmuth

    This sums up what I've been attempting to relate!

  10. #90
    AT 4000+, LT, FHT, ALT Blissful's Avatar
    Join Date
    07-14-2005
    Location
    Virginia, 10 miles from the AT near SNP
    Age
    61
    Posts
    10,470
    Journal Entries
    1
    Images
    171

    Default

    I am going on your optimism as my hubby is really having second thoughts and planning another hike within Yosemite proper (like in the canyon area) if its too dangerous (with danger of water crossing and snow travel in the passes), though I am really trying to hope for the best. We looked into possible changing airline tickets, thinking of other trails, but the cost is too much to transfer or something else and we had gotten them way back in Jan.
    Last edited by Blissful; 05-29-2011 at 19:53.







    Hiking Blog
    AT NOBO and SOBO, LT, FHT, ALT
    Shenandoah NP Ridgerunner, Author, Speaker


  11. #91
    AT 4000+, LT, FHT, ALT Blissful's Avatar
    Join Date
    07-14-2005
    Location
    Virginia, 10 miles from the AT near SNP
    Age
    61
    Posts
    10,470
    Journal Entries
    1
    Images
    171

    Default

    A poster on the JMT Yahoo group mentioned that crampons are needed for an early July start this year. The microspikes are rolling. And some PCTers are getting ready to head into the Sierras. Should get some more reports soon.

    http://www.pcta.org/planning/during_...ail_con_CC.asp
    Last edited by Blissful; 05-31-2011 at 11:23.







    Hiking Blog
    AT NOBO and SOBO, LT, FHT, ALT
    Shenandoah NP Ridgerunner, Author, Speaker


  12. #92
    Registered User
    Join Date
    03-22-2009
    Location
    Ashburnham, MA
    Age
    80
    Posts
    1,951
    Images
    2

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Blissful View Post
    A poster on the JMT Yahoo group mentioned that crampons are needed for an early July start this year. The microspikes are rolling. ...
    On steep terrain microspikes (and traction) can roll off your foot. In the Northeast in winter, people will often carry both microspikes and crampons into the mountains. The microspikes are very convenient, easy on and off and easy to walk with. But, at some point it gets steep enough that crampons are safer, especially if you can fall very far. Lots of info on this at adkforums and http://viewsfromthetop.com/forums/.

  13. #93

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Blissful View Post
    A poster on the JMT Yahoo group mentioned that crampons are needed for an early July start this year.
    It's a very personal decision. I have used crampons in summer and winter in the Sierra, but I'd never take them on a proper JMT even in June this year. I'd also never purchase microspikes. However, I do wear real mountaineering boots, which you will need for crampons to stay on your feet and not hurt you anyway. But once you have the boots, you already have what it takes to navigate most snow and ice conditions on the JMT. If it's truly black ice on the steep stuff, wait for the sun, brew some exta coffee and then go.

  14. #94

    Default

    FWIW, I just tried, 3 days ago, to hoof it SOBO on the PCT from Chester CA where the trail crosses Highway 36 to Quincy. Above 6000 - 6200 ft it was complete snow travel. Without snowshoes I decided not to continue. I will try again in about two wks depending on weather.

    We should, HOPEFULLY, start seeing that typical Sierra mid June melt kicking in soon! Temps simply have not been consistently warm enough for much snow to melt. Instead, we are still experiencing cold spells and the occassional light snowfall in higher elevations around the Carson City/Lake Tahoe area. For JMTers looking at July/Aug SOBO starts I would keep in mind that trail conditions can, and often do, change significantly during June! With days getting longer and warmer it's just a matter of time when that melt kicks in! It's a wait and see game depending on temps!

    After leaving Chester, I hit the rails to trails Bizz Johnson Trail stretching about 26 miles from Westwood to Susanville. I got snowed on, only 3 inches though, two nights ago on that trail at an elev of about 5200 ft. It melted off on the old railroad grade by 9 a.m. The trail is especially well graded and quite scenic in the 20 miles or so nearest Susanville where it goes through Susanville Canyon and follows along the Susanville River.

  15. #95

    Default

    latest long term outlook from mammothweather.com - not much change in the near future, so the melt will be delayed even more

    The updated outlook consedes that the train of closed lows will continue at least another week….possibly two

    Wednesday June 1, 2011

    Posted at 9:23 am by Howard


    It there an end in sight? It looked that way a week ago….just a head fake!
    Coldest May? Actually for Fresno, both May of 2010 and 2011 were tied at -3.7F degree below normal for the month.

    It appears that another in the series of cool upper level low pressure systems will track across the Sierra today and tonight bringing snow showers and gusty winds to our region. Lake wind advisories go into effect at 1:00pm this afternoon and continue through 8:00pm tonight. The strongest winds will occur late afternoon and into the early evening hours with the FROPA. Then an even wetter system arrives for the weekend and may end up bringing a good 4 to 8 inches of snow above 9000 feet Sunday into Monday. Snow showers could begin anytime beginning Friday night. So here we go with another unsettled weekend and the way the WX maps look for next week it may continue for some time. Why?

    OUTLOOK:
    WX Discussion….
    An expansive warm core ridge is expected to remain anchored from the mid southern states southwest to Northern Mexico. This working teleconnection tied with a persistent positive upper height anomaly off the British Columbian coast will keep a signifacant negative height anomaly in the mean off the Northern Coast for the next week, possibly two. This leads to a series of deep cyclones dropping down into California for the next week to 10 days. The guidance, operational and ensembles are all in agreement concerning the next system to effect California this weekend. After the weekend the ECMWF keeps a trof in the mean over California pretty much all of next week with a series of small features dropping south over our state as either coastal sliders or interior sliders. The next more organized system is poised to drop south in California about Saturday the 12th/Sunday the 13th. “It ain’t over till its over!” (Yogi Berra)

  16. #96

    Default

    June 3rd forecast - check out the prediction on temps for the weekend, which is more important that the absolutely rare June rain in Owens Valley

    FRIDAY 03-JUN-2011, 6:39 AM PDT
    A few high clouds today as weak high pressure influences our district. So, mild temps and dry weather. But a very interesting early June weekend, weather wise, is in store for us. An impressive low pressure system from the Gulf of Alaska will begin its migration through Central California on Sunday. Ahead of this system, breezy conditions are expected in both Inyo and Mono Counties starting later today. For Mono County, a chance of rain and snow begins on Saturday and intensifies Sunday into Monday. Both counties will see increasing winds through the weekend and the Owens Valley will see a slight chance of rain on Sunday as well. Whats really interesting, for this time of year, is that temps are going to drop some 10 – 20 degrees below normal and snow amounts of several inches is expected above 7,500 feet by Monday. Along with this, there is a chance of hail producing thunderstorms here and there. The system exits by Tuesday and a mild warming trend will ensue thereafter.

  17. #97

    Default

    HF, that was an extremely well written, knowledgable, and detailed post on #83.

    Is it also safe to say that SOBO JMTers hiking at a moderate pace will experience additional snow melt as they head south in increasingly warmer temps?

  18. #98

    Default

    I hiked a short week last August and I have to say the scenery is a lot more boring without snow. I'm a little snow phobic, but I think I would rather go with a lot of good firm snow than to go with big expanses of sun-cuppy snow. Since I'm a creek crossing wussy I'm not sure if having lots of pretty snow would override my fear of creeks, though. It would be a tough call for me whether to reschedule or not this year.
    Some knew me as Piper, others as just Diane.
    I hiked the PCT: Mexico to Mt. Shasta, 2008. Santa Barbara to Canada, 2009.

  19. #99

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dogwood View Post
    HF, that was an extremely well written, knowledgable, and detailed post on #83.

    Is it also safe to say that SOBO JMTers hiking at a moderate pace will experience additional snow melt as they head south in increasingly warmer temps?
    Unless you're not a super fast trail runner, you'll be spending a few weeks on the trial so there is ample time for stuff to melt - all that runoff is coming from something. We usually find much less snow in the south, plus just like in years past, there's less snow towards SEKI to begin with

  20. #100

    Default

    Thanks for spending the time in ALL the detailed responses!

Page 5 of 9 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 LastLast
++ New Posts ++

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •