Worried about the snow

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

2005-06 was a pretty heavy winter - let me borrow a some some photos from that year as a reference:

http://www.pbase.com/aarondoss/image/72272375

this is north of Muir Pass, just above Lake Mc Dermont on July 10, 2006 - about twice the snow we had last July... and when we met people heading south, our conditions were described as "freakin' Siberia" by some PCT hikers. 2006 was MUCH worse - just look a few pages back from the above link at Mather's south flank
http://www.pbase.com/aarondoss/image/72272357

where we didn't have any snow at all around July 20. 2010

and Forester's north side where my first two images were taken - except we didn't have all that white stuff between the far ridge where our snow was and the pass, where this photographer is standing looking north

http://www.pbase.com/aarondoss/image/72272332

and I've never seen the lake south of Glen frozen...

http://www.pbase.com/aarondoss/image/72272337

[Blissful]

Thanks for the info. Would Yak Trax then be good to carry? I did good with them on my trail runners in snow on a day hike at Lassen Peak.

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

Thanks for the info. Would Yak Trax then be good to carry? I did good with them on my trail runners in snow on a day hike at Lassen Peak.

they'll help you in the morning when the snow is frozen - when the snow gets soggy soft, only real snow shoes really help, but they aren't worth carrying unless you have snow conditions like in those 2006 photos

[ChinMusic]

Thanks for the info. Would Yak Trax then be good to carry? I did good with them on my trail runners in snow on a day hike at Lassen Peak.

I agree with Yak Trax (pro) being good when things are frozen. They also are helpful in some muddy sections. In soft snow they neither help nor hurt. On dry rock they can be slippery. If the trail goes back and forth from ice to snow to dry to mud to rock etc they work better than nothing, just gotta be careful on sloped rock.

I'd love to find something better as I find them a hassle to take on and off with them occasionally rolling up (or to the side) or falling off.

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

from mammoth dweeb's forcast today

"Mammoth Mt is reporting 311 inches of fallen snow for the ski season of 2010/2011! The annual average is 343, so were less then 3 feet away from a normal ski seasons worth of snowfall and its only January 3rd!"

forecast looks low on snow for the next 10 days, though.

[nawlunz]

Based on what has happened thus far in the Sierras for snowfall, and the fact that I am not interested in serious stream crossings going solo, would you say (based on current pattern of snowfall), that leaving from Happy Isles last week in July for the JMT would be a good bet? I plan to come out at Lone Pine by August 12th or so.

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

The later the better. If the snow fall amounts return to what was forecast long term, you definitely will be fine (forecast was for below normal this year based on La Nina which is really kicking butt in Australia, and generally has the opposite effect on the precip in California)

[nawlunz]

The later the better. If the snow fall amounts return to what was forecast long term, you definitely will be fine (forecast was for below normal this year based on La Nina which is really kicking butt in Australia, and generally has the opposite effect on the precip in California)

plots. Seems like the early "uptick" for water/snow in the mountains, and now a level pattern, returning to "norm". Perhaps you may be righ about the long term forecast. In any case, for me, looks like I will try to get my permit August 1st as that seems to be the best window for me and seems to be a reasonable bet to balance all other factors.

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

la nina winters are marked by extreme precip followed by long periods of nothing. Could still get a few more big bumps, could just fizzle away.

[ChinMusic]

Wanting to take my daughter from Tuolumne to the Valley (Clouds Rest and HD included). Have a wedding I need to go to on 7/30 so I have to hike earlier than I like.

Would 7/18 be decent start for this section? Permit time coming up soon.

[Blissful]

Wanting to take my daughter from Tuolumne to the Vally (Clouds Rest and HD included). Have a wedding I need to go to on 7/30 so I have to hike earlier than I like.

Would 7/18 be decent start for this section? Permit time coming up soon.

We're going to be there even earlier, beginning of July.

[lori]

Take bug repellent and headnets just in case... we were nearly eaten on a July Clouds Rest hike. We ranranran to the cars and jumped in, and the ravening hordes were bumping against the windows.... The meadows will have lots of them.

If the snow continues to fall into April as it did last year, it may linger in some places pretty late. By late August we crossed a mere 5 feet of snow on the main trail going over Forester (there were many many use trails up and down from the snowfield, showing how hikers were able to get around it when it obliterated the trail).

June 15 when we were hiking into Paradise Valley for the day, we met a number of backpackers coming out - they were trying to do Rae Lakes loop and met 5 feet of slushy snow at the JMT, and rather than wading through it they turned back. They said the few thrus they encountered were forcing their way into the snow just the same. Which is not any indicator of how it will be this year, really. But the thrus were still going, just slowly.

[nawlunz]

the pattern of snowfall reaming this winter/spring. Started heavy, now tapering off....now on track to be an average year....


http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/PLOT_SWC



http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/PLOT_SWC

[nawlunz]

the pattern of snowfall "remaining" this winter/spring. Started heavy, now tapering off....now on track to be an average year....


http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/PLOT_SWC



http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/PLOT_SWC

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

The plot is an average of all measurements. First hand info from one of the snow surveyers who actually go out into the backcountry to measure where there are no sensors indicates that lower elevations have lots a lot of snow (7000 feet down from 5 feet to 1one foot) but up high above 10,000, little has changed and many places are still well over 100% of April 1.

also, there seems to be a pattern building that may bring in another round of storms in a few weeks

[ChinMusic]

I secured my permit, starting on 7/18, for my daughter and me.

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

snow is back:

http://mammothweather.com/2011/02/15...r-fridaynight/

[nawlunz]

snow is back:

http://mammothweather.com/2011/02/15...r-fridaynight/

it said you were not receiving PMs now...I had a question to ask you, but would rather send via email if OK with you...

Can I send you my question via PM or email and you can decide if you can or want to answer?

THANKS

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

Thanks for the info. Would Yak Trax then be good to carry? I did good with them on my trail runners in snow on a day hike at Lassen Peak.

like I said before - you can't know until late May what kind of winter we are having. Snow now is normal for la Nina winter and 5 feet of powder is nothing in the big picture. takes a few more of these storms to get a real serious snow pack going.

what is serious are the 150mph+ winds on Mammoth Mountain tonight - glad those don't come around in summer

[tuswm]

My friend works at badger, the ski resort in YNP. He said they just got another 4 feet