Worried about the snow

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

powder - the last storm was very dry, lots of fluff, nothing much to register on the water content graph. We are still around 100% and in a forecasted pattern of few storms with long breaks in between.

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/PLOT_SWC


My guess now is that we may just barely get more snow than last year. Definitely nothing to break any major records.

[Blissful]

Whew, sounds good to me. Many thanks for all your advice.

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

Latest news from one of the (lucky dog!!!) snow surveyers. Check out his photos - what a drag it must be to have that job....

We just returned from a twelve day snow survey of the southern Sierra between Cottonwood Pass and Shepard Pass. Three feet of fresh snow brought the seasonal average for the area (Kern River) to 136% of average for the year and 152% to date. It's interesting to note that our measurements at lower elevation courses had significantly higher % totals than higher sites (up to ~190% of April 1)


If you are interested in photos there are some here https://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=59435&id=100000518514856&l=a495c1dcf 8



Other river basins 0f intrest; Kings 112%, San Joaquin 118%, Merced 114%, Tuolumne 117%



JD
Walk the Sky: Following the John Muir Trail
www.johndittli.com

his guess is that right now it looks like a little more than last year, but not extreme, since last year we got a ton of snow late in the season.

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

It'll be a good week to watch that snow plot - when it gets updated on Monday, there'll be a big bump up on the third plot (the one that matters for the JMT)

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/PLOT_SWC

Just today and tomorrow, Mammoth Mountain will pick up 4 feet, and they already received a good load over the last few days.

The ski bums are stoked, which translated for hikers means: more snow in July. I was going to head to Yosemite for some backcountry skiing yesterday, but had to postpone it, since for the next few days there will be pretty high avalanche risk. Looks like the weather will remain unsettled at least through Wednesday. This second batch of heavy snow does put the summer snow clearly above normal even if there won't be another system in spring

[Blissful]

Its getting bad out there and I am getting nervous about my July 7th start and having to posthole my way through (which hubby does not want to do) and the river crossings. Yosemite is closed down for now. ugh. Looking at microspikes. Sure hope there's a good thaw soon

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

http://patrol.mammothmountain.com/MM...70-Current.htm

already a new record year in Mammoth and a near record March (only 1991 was bigger in March)

However, warm weather is rolling in, and yesterday I saw a mile of snow melt on the trail up to Telescope Peak in just 6 hours - 10-12 inches of snow turned to a few patches of white stuff, and it wasn't even as warm as it will be in the coming days. High country snow will stick around, though, and I think you can be guaranteed snow on all passes if you start July 7. Bring some proven waterproof boots and gaiters, and you'll be fine. July snow isn't postholer stuff - it's usually so compacted that only late in the afternoon, especially near hot rocks (where the snow melts underneath) you need to worry about breaking through the surface.

[paula53]

I live in Casrson City, Nv. The snowpack for the eastern Sierras near here is 160% of normal. I have confirmations of permits, for TM in Yosemity starting mid July, thru August 5th. I doubt if the snow is going to thaw out to allow safe travel in the backcountry,without crampons & ice axs.
Only once before did the YNP fail to open the High Sierra Camps, for the same reason.

[tuswm]

how much snow could there possibly be by the end of july? am I goign to need to change my equipment?

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

how much snow could there possibly be by the end of july? am I goign to need to change my equipment?

a lot, unless we get a very hot spring without any late snows.

Even in a drought year (45% of normal) we had snow in late July in some high locations. This year is about 175% of normal in JMT country

[Hangman]

Good Luck with the early July start. I've been watching this high snowfall this year too. I have plane tickets and permits for an Aug 22nd start ... I'm guessing I should be good as far as snow by then.

[ChinMusic]

I have a permit for Tuolumne to Happy Isle starting 7/18. From the best I can remember there isn't anything over 10K in that section, (I do want to do Clouds Rest again).

Any guesses as to conditions then? I know, I know, spring temps/etc. But a guess.

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

I have a permit for Tuolumne to Happy Isle starting 7/18. From the best I can remember there isn't anything over 10K in that section, (I do want to do Clouds Rest again).

Any guesses as to conditions then? I know, I know, spring temps/etc. But a guess.

Cloudy with a cahnce of meatballs

[ChinMusic]

Cloudy with a cahnce of meatballs

Thanks for the 90-day forecast.

Seriously, when would one know (reasonable prediction) the snow levels on 7/18?

I gotta buy plane tickets.

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

Whew, sounds good to me. Many thanks for all your advice.

note my post was Feb 22. Since then, the La Nina "dry" winter has moved up to the 4th wettest winter in history. This weekend Mammoth broke the all time snow depth record (not water content, though, which is why it isn't the wettest year on record). See this:

http://mammothweather.com/2011/04/10...ar-since-1970/


I was in the Sierras for 2 weeks from March 21 through April 3, and what I saw was "more than normal" - however, only at higher elevations, and it was all melting super fast. The fear of the locals is that spring will kick in hot and strong, causing flash flooding of epic proportions.

For the trouble spots on the JMT, that doesn't mean too much, as the above 10,000 foot snow is what we usually are dealing with in July. These snow fields at passes will be large again, and no hot spring will change that, given that in many of the southern Sierra locations we are looking at 175% of normal snow water content. It's just so much stuff up there, that it will take well into August to melt the deeper drifts near the passes.

No matter how the spring goes, water runoff will be deep through July, so bring those crossing shoes.

[Dogwood]

Helmuth, do you live in Wisconsin or the Sierras?

[Blissful]

More snow until Wed., another 2 feet

This is looking worse and worse for our July 7th start.

Man

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

Helmuth, do you live in Wisconsin or the Sierras?

that is the question...

working on making the Sierra primary residence, but that's going to take a bit. I was going to buy the Whitney Portal Store from Doug, but he's trying to retire before I can get out there (kids, college, yada yada...)

This year alone I'll be out west three times.

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

record snow, still 200% of normal in some areas like Bishop Creek drainage. Runoff is 160% of normal right now, because it's cooler than normal, and then there was a foot of fresh snow over the last few days. Doesn't look good for a dry early season. Still 10 feet of snow on the road down to Reds, Tioga Pass not gonna open before late June, maybe even July. Still didn't stop a guy to start the JMT two days ago at Whitney Portal northbound. On foot. Had to be talked into snow shoes by the Portal Store owner...

[tuswm]

wow nothing is open yet did he take 30 days worth of food with him?

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

wow nothing is open yet did he take 30 days worth of food with him?

May not need those resupplies - Doug Sr. from the Portal store posted that he also gave him directions for the Bubbs Creek exit opportunity. Probably going to use it with the way the conditions are, unless he suddenly becomes a snow shoe champ.