Worried about the snow

[Blissful]

OK, the Sierras are really getting dumped on right now and I am getting really worried about conditions for an early July start of the trail (the only time we can do it) . Someone on a forum talked about 10 ft snowdrifts back in the 80's on July 4 in Yosemite. We have to get reservations going mid Jan. And I only plan to wear trail runners (I can't do boots).

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

OK, the Sierras are really getting dumped on right now and I am getting really worried about conditions for an early July start of the trail (the only time we can do it) . Someone on a forum talked about 10 ft snowdrifts back in the 80's on July 4 in Yosemite. We have to get reservations going mid Jan. And I only plan to wear trail runners (I can't do boots).

worry about it around April. Yes, tons and tons of snow now, but still a good chance for a dry winter after that. It was 58 degrees on Bishop Pass on Dec 12, so even if it snows now, it can also melt away well before July. The current snow has nothing to do with overall patterns and may be the only really big snow fall for the year for a La Nina year (dry).

There is currently about 2/3rd the water content on the ground that was there last year on April 1, however, for the date, we are on record levels.

And even if there's a lot of snow in early July, it's just a little more water in the creeks to worry about - the snow itself is actually a ton of fun. If these 12-year-olds can do it, you can...









bring the right footwear and enjoy it - it is supposed to be an adventure, right?

[leaftye]

My ankles hurt just looking at those pictures. They are good pictures though.

[tuswm]

I was thinking about this today. I was supposed to go to cali in a few days for some backpacking. I have a month before school starts again. now i dont know what to do.

[Dogwood]

Blissful, every yr may be a bit different but you may want to consider PCTers enter the unofficial beginning of the Sierras, going NOBO, at Kennedy Meadows aorund mid June and get through.

Keep abreast on snow levels/pack and how fast its melting, which will effect fords, at Postholer.com.

[jwalden]

Helmuth, where on the JMT were those pictures taken? They don't look particularly familiar to me. But that's not surprising since I hiked it this September, walked over no snow (did see a few patches, tho, really roughed it!), and "endured" an hour of flurries one day and no other weather of note.

I'm not the sort to repeat trails -- too many to do! -- but it's increasingly clear to me that the JMT is a completely different trail early in the season (also south to north), so I may just have to (once, or twice?), which would be such a shame. But would it really be a repeat? Such difficult questions to ponder.

[nawlunz]

worry about it around April. Yes, tons and tons of snow now, but still a good chance for a dry winter after that. It was 58 degrees on Bishop Pass on Dec 12, so even if it snows now, it can also melt away well before July. The current snow has nothing to do with overall patterns and may be the only really big snow fall for the year for a La Nina year (dry).

There is currently about 2/3rd the water content on the ground that was there last year on April 1, however, for the date, we are on record levels.

And even if there's a lot of snow in early July, it's just a little more water in the creeks to worry about - the snow itself is actually a ton of fun. If these 12-year-olds can do it, you can...









bring the right footwear and enjoy it - it is supposed to be an adventure, right?

taken....and what passes? Seems a lot of snow for summer..BEAUTIFUL!

[nawlunz]

Helmuth, where on the JMT were those pictures taken? They don't look particularly familiar to me. But that's not surprising since I hiked it this September, walked over no snow (did see a few patches, tho, really roughed it!), and "endured" an hour of flurries one day and no other weather of note.

I'm not the sort to repeat trails -- too many to do! -- but it's increasingly clear to me that the JMT is a completely different trail early in the season (also south to north), so I may just have to (once, or twice?), which would be such a shame. But would it really be a repeat? Such difficult questions to ponder.

I posted...I had the same question.

[garlic08]

My ankles hurt just looking at those pictures. They are good pictures though.

Ditto this. Memories of suncups.

Ditto also don't worry about the snow until next Spring. A fast melt will completely change the picture in a matter of days.

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

Helmuth, where on the JMT were those pictures taken? They don't look particularly familiar to me. But that's not surprising since I hiked it this September, walked over no snow

first one going down from Muir Pass (southbound, just off the pass) The icy bottom is the bowl below the pass that stretches west from Black Giant

second and third image are on Forester Pass (around July 25!), just off trail, because when there is snow, the trail does not follow the official route, but hugs the ridge as high as you want to to before you traverse to the pass.

last image is Silver Pass looking south at the top.

[pyroman53]

bring the right footwear

So what do you mean by this? What, in your opinion is the right footware for these conditions, and why?

[leaftye]

I don't know about the perfect footwear, but I just found out about the Inov-8 Oroc 350. Wide toebox and spikes for icy terrain. If only I could get someone else to carry a second set of shoes for me.

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

So what do you mean by this? What, in your opinion is the right footware for these conditions, and why?

something that keeps you dry (and warm...). So if you are a trail runner fan, you need waterproof trail runners, and really good gaiters to keep the snow out of the top. You can't do that, you should not go in that season.

We used much heavier footwear (La Sportiva Trango GTX), but that's just preference. I wear these boots anywhere, 3-seasons. We also didn't have to take them off crossing most streams, because good boots with well fitting gaiters will go through water pretty well. It's the deeper crossings and many really muddy and wet trail sections that are a much bigger problem in early season than the snow.

here's a typical trail section below the snow line on July 22, below Helen Lake. Didn't even slow us down:




Snow cups are not a big deal because the trail gets broken in early spring by the PCT crowd and when you get there it will be pretty smooth. Frozen hard in the morning, darn soft and very wet in the afternoon, and that's the part of the day you want to avoid if you can.

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

I don't know about the perfect footwear, but I just found out about the Inov-8 Oroc 350. Wide toebox and spikes for icy terrain. If only I could get someone else to carry a second set of shoes for me.

slipping on ice isn't really a problem in July unless you hit a really high and shady part of frozen trail early in the day. The only difficult terrain I recall from this trip are deep water crossings, and we had a few that were radically deeper than in a normal July - places where I never had encountered more than a few inches of water were waist deep and raging.

here's some folks crossing the second stream you cross coming down from Silver Pass southbound - the first one was similar (the big waterfall thing), and this once, a quick hop from rock to rock usually in July. this is July 17, 2010, and even our boots and gaiters had to come off



Another place that was very similar to thos one was White Fork, a usually small and easly overlooked side stream coming down from the north just above Woods Creek at 2800 meters on the 25k topo map. You cross it when you're coming down from Pinchot about 45 mins before you reach the hanging bridge. In September, there's almost no water there, but last year that crossing was so violent I had to walk my kids over one at a time, without packs, and then do it a few more times to get all the packs across.

[sbhikes]

Helmuth is a bit old-school on footwear. He warned me I'd never make it hiking the JMT in sandals. My feet were never happier. (Sandals are not good in snow, however, so I wouldn't recommend them in early season. Snow gets stuck under your toes.)

I don't think you need waterproofness or gaiters. PCT hikers generally eschew goretext shoes and waterproof stuff when they come through. They have acceptance that feet will be wet all day. It's really not a big deal.

Microspikes can add traction for ice, but don't work too well on snow. Instep crampons help in snow, but are hard to walk over rocks with. I think either one is worth bringing, but neither are absolutely crucial.

Many hikers bring an ice axe. I believe it's probably not useful unless you know how to use it. Trekking poles will help with stability. There's also something called a whippet that looks useful.

In July you should have other people's foot prints to help you find the way and to help you place your feet.

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

Helmuth is a bit old-school on footwear.

Never had a blister... never twisted an ankle. Why change a good thing? I am currently walking in boots less than half the weight I used in my early years, so that's ultralight for me.

Am about to buy some "ultralight" AT ski boots - 3 pounds a piece... yikes, but I guess when you want to move through the backcountry on ski, they haven't really come up with the 7 ounce ultralight shoes for that yet.

I don't think you need waterproofness or gaiters. PCT hikers generally eschew goretext shoes and waterproof stuff when they come through. They have acceptance that feet will be wet all day. It's really not a big deal.

just put all that foot treatment tape and benzoine tincture in your weight budget. Pain comes free. Weather permitting, you can usually dry out, but weather doesn't always cooperate. we had 3 days and 2 nights of rain last July, and not just the small storms that stop and move away.

If you know that you don't get blisters hiking in totally wet shoes with the water softening up your skin, no worries. You're basically gambling that you will dry out completely, but we are talking early season after a potentially very wet winter. I would be worried to keep my heavier gore-tex boots dry if it got worse than what we had in 2010.

Many hikers bring an ice axe. I believe it's probably not useful unless you know how to use it. Trekking poles will help with stability. There's also something called a whippet that looks useful.

the ice axe will look cool strapped to your pack in July, unless it's a huge snow year and you need to do a few tricky traverses (Forester Pass south of summit is such a place, but even last summer it was snow free in late July). They are great for self-arrest (if you have practiced that) on a large snow slope. Perhaps north of Mather it would be good to have that - there are a few short passages where a slip could end very ugly at the bottom of a 45 degree snow slope.

hiking poles help a lot, especially if you bring snow cups for them, because once the snow gets soft, they have absolutely no support without the snow cups and your pole will go in 3 feet as you try to keep your balance. Been there done that. We had snow cups this summer and even with them, I once went straight through the snow, one leg and both poles, only one foot stayed above, body twisted from the pack pulling me around down the hillside, while the leg below the snow got into rocks and twisted, ouch. Could have been much worse, but I had two helpers who pulled me out right away.

The thing you will learn very quickly is that the snow is safest away from any rocks that peak through it. Those absorb heat and then melt the snow from underneath, too. Getting off snow and onto rocks is the most difficult thing, because you never really know how much support you have near the edge...

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

and in related news:


quote from http://news.sierrawave.net/"At last word, 166 inches of snow fell in December on Mammoth with 11 to 17 feet of it since last Friday. Skiinfo.com reports Mammoth has the deepest base of snow in the world right now with 260 inches of snow so far this season."

[nawlunz]

seen posting on WB, but I am also concerned about the snow based on my dates. Based on current data, its early I know, but it's matching one of the wettest winters in some time...see website.

So, I'll am going to pay close attention to this website and to posters on this forum as we get nearer to the date of departure!


http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snow/PLOT_SWC

[ChinMusic]

Ditto also don't worry about the snow until next Spring. A fast melt will completely change the picture in a matter of days.

Really? I honestly have no idea. I haven't paid attention to how things unfold out there but it is reported that there was something like 11-17 feet of snow since last Friday.

Wouldn't massive amounts of snow over winter increase the snow in July or is it more dependent on spring temps?

Wouldn't very heavy amounts of snow lead toward bridges out and difficult crossings once she starts to melt?

I was gonna post on this too but blissful beat me to it. I have plans on taking my daughter out there next summer.

[Helmuth.Fishmonger]

Wouldn't very heavy amounts of snow lead toward bridges out and difficult crossings once she starts to melt?

just look at one of the daily snow depth sensor graphs - if it stops snowing, stuff evaproates off, melts, etc - Dec 12 had a 54 degre day on BISHOP PASS at over 12,000 feet - places like Tuolumne Meadows were in the 60s. These days will happen again, and this year has been forecast to be dry. What I can see in the long term forcast from the guys who know the area (Mammth Dweebs mostly), there's not much more snow on the horizon for a while. Who knows - they may all be wrong with a changing planet. Last year the snow looked normal and below normal and then we got some late May snow - see the last year line in the above graph, which is a good place to track the overall pattern. On a week by week basis, what has fallen this month may not really matter that much by the end of winter. I bet if it stays very dry from here on, you won't see snow fields in July like in the above photos


snow depth graph for Bishop Pass this Month

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/histPlot/Da...ow&geom=Medium

note how it goes down between fresh snows. Now it's really high, but it'll settle due to its own weight. Sun may not have a shot at a really warm day for a while with all that white stuff reflecting heat, but it's california and if there's no clouds it will warm up

Bishop Pass Max temperatures this month graphed

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/histPlot/Da...ow&geom=Medium

Tuolumne Meadows snow depth graphed shows even better how things go down unless there's another dumping

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/histPlot/Da...ow&geom=Medium

July is a long time off (more than half a year). The real melt usuall begins in early May in the higher elevations. We'll have to see what happens

Bridges out? There are only a handful of them anyway, and the most dangerous crossings would be between Muir Ranch and Evolution Valley if those went out, but they have been there for a very long time. Those that got washed out in the 80s by the last super winter have not been replaced for the most part anyway.