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  1. #41

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    Quote Originally Posted by Covetree View Post
    Just out of curiosity, what makes you say Emily's the first one out?
    She likes to party and she will get distracted.


    As far as the odds of finishing, assume each hiker has a one in five or 20% chance of finishing. The chance all three finish is 0.2 x 0.2 x 0.2 = 0.008, less than 1%.

    Of course you guys are young but there are other complications such as two being siblings and all of you knowing each other to start with. It's hard enough hiking the entire trail without having to adjust what you're doing for other people. If someone has to lay out for two weeks, what do the others do? Make sure that you have independent gear kits, that you are sharing a tent or cooking pot.

    Make a rule that no matter what kind of a mood you're in or despite any disagreements, nobody goes to sleep at night angry, that things get resolved before you go to sleep. That would significantly increase your chances.

    The camera guy is not thru-hiking but that puts a whole 'nother twist on it.

    Not trying to discourage you and it is just walking up and down mountains all day. But sometimes that just isn't easy.

    Good luck!

  2. #42

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    Jack has observed a lot of groups start out together and could probably give good advice about it.

  3. #43

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Tarlin View Post
    Tater's got it.

    And Reno would have a better chance of finishing, but she'd sure in hell finish alone.
    http://totallylookslike.files.wordpr...bill-gates.jpg

  4. #44

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    Sorry for all the posts but I left out a "not":

    Make sure that you have independent gear kits, that you are NOT sharing a tent or cooking pot.

  5. #45
    Registered User drifters quest's Avatar
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    Best of luck to the three of you. I'll be starting two days behind you so i'm sure i'll see you on the trail!

  6. #46
    Registered User WILLIAM HAYES's Avatar
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    too much hype and overkill with the bios sounds like a bunch of job resumes from a bunch of egotistical people no one cares about a bunch of ivy league -lawyer crap on the trail the lawyer may make it the whole way even a starving bear wont eat a lawyer

  7. #47

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    Quote Originally Posted by Appalachian Tater View Post
    She likes to party and she will get distracted.
    We have a winner! I put my money on her to finish. If you aren't partying and enjoying every distraction from the monotony of hiking 15 to 18 miles a day you are gonna burn out quick.
    Yahtzee

  8. #48
    Registered User ShelterLeopard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Appalachian Tater View Post
    Sorry for all the posts but I left out a "not":

    Make sure that you have independent gear kits, that you are NOT sharing a tent or cooking pot.
    Amen! This is what I was thinking- if you all have your own gear, at least you can continue on if one decides to drop out, or you realize that maybe you should split up (as hiking partners, not as friends). You can always wait until a town and buy new solo gear, but it's costly, and you'll have to go with what they stock.
    2010 AT NoBo Thru "attempt" (guess 1,700 miles didn't quite get me all the way through ;) )
    Various adventures in Siberia 2016
    Adventures past and present!
    (and maybe 2018 PCT NoBo)

  9. #49

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    Quote Originally Posted by ShelterLeopard View Post
    Amen! This is what I was thinking- if you all have your own gear, at least you can continue on if one decides to drop out, or you realize that maybe you should split up (as hiking partners, not as friends). You can always wait until a town and buy new solo gear, but it's costly, and you'll have to go with what they stock.
    I am not so sure I follow this logic.

    First off, it sounds like they are committed to sticking together. Not the most common way to hike, but not unheard of either, particular when talking about family or long term friends.

    If they start off with one stove, one cookset, one set of maps, one compass, one water filter, etc and one person DROPS OUT. The two remaining will need to redistribute the group gear, they don't need to get new gear. Up until that point they will be traveling lighter than otherwise.

    If they decide to split up they would need to aquire new gear. But keep in mind this could very well occur at the same point other hikers are quitting the trail and heading home, giving them the oppertunity to pick up slightly used gear for free or very cheap. And if they do stick together they save the money of having never need to buy the stuff. If the do need to buy stuff they will pay a primium, but it won't be that huge. If the town the split up at has a very limited selection, by taking two zero days or and paying a bit extra in shipping or by agree to stick together for one more town they can buy gear from REI or campmor and have it mailed to themselves.

    The upside of sharing the gear is they can each be 5 lbs or more lighter than they would be otherwise, greatly increasing their chances of completing the trail as a heavy pack is harder to carry than a ligher one.
    Love people and use things; never the reverse.

    Mt. Katahdin would be a lot quicker to climb if its darn access trail didn't start all the way down in Georgia.

  10. #50
    Registered User Symbol's Avatar
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    Each of you having all your own gear sounds like great advice... as well as never going to bed mad.

    Also, having worked out your game plan of what you are going in the case of one person needing to drop out or sit out for an extended time dur to injury may be a good thing to do too.

    (FWIW, I think the person needing to quit or sit out for an injury needs to encourage the others go on with their best wishes. If you sit out a week or two and rest an injury you can always rejoin them up the trail and then go back after the hike is done and do the section you missed.)

    Good luck to you all.

  11. #51

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    Maybe I missed something. The Tarptent Squall 2 sleeps two. If the scheduled shelter is full, what is your plan?

    Even "documentaries" are scripted. How will you get around the fact that filming something changes its nature?

  12. #52
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    "The upside of sharing the gear is they can each be 5 lbs or more lighter than they would be otherwise, greatly increasing their chances of completing the trail as a heavy pack is harder to carry than a ligher one."
    I'm not always a fan of every poll on this site, but if a poll was done with just successful thru-hikers contributing on this topic, I'd expect a strong majority to vote for "be independent with your gear". Stuff happens.

    "If they decide to split up they would need to aquire new gear. But keep in mind this could very well occur at the same point other hikers are quitting the trail and heading home, giving them the oppertunity to pick up slightly used gear for free or very cheap."
    It strikes me as quite unlikely that a person from a started-together-and-pooled-gear group would leave the group at the very same point AND time that another hiker was quitting the trail AND that that other hiker would be okay with selling or otherwise parting with a particular desired gear item AND that whatever that person was using for cook pot or tent or whatever would be something that a remaining group member would prefer. I did see a fellow on the PCT carrying a two person tent and so forth because his wife dropped out about 400 - 500 miles into the trip. I don't recall running into groups that formed before starting the trail --- there might well have been some, but the only groups I recall were ones that formed somewhere along the way.

    IMO a much better approach is to pick low weight solutions to the particular items that folks like to share --- shelter (tent, tarp), water treatment, cookpot & associated stove, perhaps first aid kit. Note that even worse in a way than a group whose member leaves the trail is one where all members stay on the trail but elect to split up (different pace, temperament, whatever). Now all of those members need their own gear.

  13. #53

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    Quote Originally Posted by Appalachian Tater View Post
    ...
    As far as the odds of finishing, assume each hiker has a one in five or 20% chance of finishing. The chance all three finish is 0.2 x 0.2 x 0.2 = 0.008, less than 1%.
    ...
    Good luck!
    So there are a few of Warren Doyle's trips that are mathematically impossible?

    What does internet logic have to do with the viability of a hiking plan??

    It is probably true that Ernie Banks has a better chance of pulling out of his recent slump than they all have of finishing, but to a true Cubs fan, both are reasonably likely.
    Rambler

  14. #54

    Default Bad odds

    Documentaries, schedules, bios, blogs? Is this a thru hike or a traveling circus? Most people hike the trail to get away from these kind of things. As long as we are throwing opinions out there, I think this little party will dissolve after a few days on the trail. On the other hand, I hope it works out for you. Enjoy the journey.

  15. #55

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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoky in TN View Post
    Documentaries, schedules, bios, blogs? Is this a thru hike or a traveling circus? Most people hike the trail to get away from these kind of things. As long as we are throwing opinions out there, I think this little party will dissolve after a few days on the trail. On the other hand, I hope it works out for you. Enjoy the journey.

    Wow! You seem to have a lot of hatred for traveling circuses. Did some clown not make the balloon animal you wanted when you were a kid?
    Love people and use things; never the reverse.

    Mt. Katahdin would be a lot quicker to climb if its darn access trail didn't start all the way down in Georgia.

  16. #56

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    I hate clowns.

  17. #57

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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoky in TN View Post
    I hate clowns.
    Especially no-talent ones of the ass variety.
    Yahtzee

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by Appalachian Tater View Post
    As far as the odds of finishing, assume each hiker has a one in five or 20% chance of finishing. The chance all three finish is 0.2 x 0.2 x 0.2 = 0.008, less than 1%.
    Not to be a pain, but this is not right. It would be (assuming one in five is correct) for three hikers selected totally randomly, but not for three hikers traveling together, or three people who know each other, or three hikers selected any way that isn't totally random.

    When any type of selection process is used, there are other factors at play besides the basic one in five that makes the analysis invalid.
    Frosty

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smoky in TN View Post
    Documentaries, schedules, bios, blogs? Is this a thru hike or a traveling circus? Most people hike the trail to get away from these kind of things.
    Diversity? My God! Who are these people with their blogs? How dare they enjoy something that you don't. Misfits, obvsiously. Take away their hiking licenses before this individualism catches on and we have chaos on the trail, with everyone doing what they want.
    Frosty

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frosty View Post
    Diversity? My God! Who are these people with their blogs? How dare they enjoy something that you don't. Misfits, obvsiously. Take away their hiking licenses before this individualism catches on and we have chaos on the trail, with everyone doing what they want.

    Thanks for the defense!

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