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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by TOW View Post
    Is the AT dangerous?
    Yes. You'll never get your Babalon soul back quite right if you spend at least 1 or 2 months straight on it with only neros.

  2. #22

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    Is the original question referring to danger due to wildlife or people? I haven't heard of any bears applying for gun permits, but homeless numbers in the USA are on the rise and the disenfranchised are getting creative. Around 80% of homeless suffer from drug addition and 100% have mental health issues. Has anyone thought about creating a trail maintenance rehabilitation program for the homeless who are using shelters as squatter-like temporary housing to help them reintergrate?
    -- Probably written after hiking 8 miles and drinking a beer or two.

  3. #23

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    Statistically speaking, you're more likely to be killed by your own doctor...which is the 6th leading cause of death. So if you see your doctor while hiking, just turn around and run the other direction.

    -- Probably written after hiking 8 miles and drinking a beer or two.

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by High-Milage Hiker View Post
    Is the original question referring to danger due to wildlife or people? I haven't heard of any bears applying for gun permits, but homeless numbers in the USA are on the rise and the disenfranchised are getting creative. Around 80% of homeless suffer from drug addition and 100% have mental health issues. Has anyone thought about creating a trail maintenance rehabilitation program for the homeless who are using shelters as squatter-like temporary housing to help them reintergrate?
    Your numbers seem quite high. I call BS on the 100%.
    More walking, less talking.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by soilman View Post
    Your numbers seem quite high. I call BS on the 100%.
    Agree. In this country we use homelessness as a definition of mental illness. Have you seen the movie Nomadland? It shows how it's basically illegal to be homeless. Without a mailing address, you can't do anything. Get a bank account, driver's license, cell phone, passport, job, etc... Yes there are ways to work around the system. But should you have to?

  6. #26
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    unfortunately true

    Quote Originally Posted by High-Milage Hiker View Post
    Statistically speaking, you're more likely to be killed by your own doctor...which is the 6th leading cause of death. So if you see your doctor while hiking, just turn around and run the other direction.

    https://tinyurl.com/MyFDresults

    A vigorous five-mile walk will do more good for an unhappy but otherwise healthy adult than all the medicine and psychology in the world. ~Paul Dudley White

  7. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by Odd Man Out View Post
    I was on a Yellowstone NP group recently and the issue of bear safety came up. Someone wanted to know if they were staying in developed areas of the park, is bear spray necessary. Response after response rolled in saying that you will certainly die without out it (or some other such dire warning).

    In this case, there were some reliable data to do the calculation (so I did).

    from the NPS web page: https://www.nps.gov/yell/learn/nature/injuries.htm
    For people in developed areas, roadsides, and boardwalks the chance of getting attacked by a bear is 1 in 59.5 million visits (I'll round of to 1/60 mil)

    From NPS stats you can find that the average visit to YNP is about 1.5 days: https://irma.nps.gov/Stats/Reports/National
    This pushes the bear attack probability to 1/90 million per day = 1.11x10-8 attacks/person/day

    Form The National Safety Council (https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-ve.../introduction/), we find that there were 5.4 million cases of people needing medical attention from an auto accident injury in 2021. If we assume that every person in the US rode in a motor vehicle every day that year (an OVER estimate) and there were 322 million people in the US in 2021 (Google) and 365 days per year, this works out to 5.4/322/365=4.59x10-5 auto accident injuries/person/day.

    Dividing the two rates we find (4.59x10-5) / (1.11x10-8) we get that the chance of getting an injury that requires medical attention in a car accident is 4135 times more likely than getting attacked by a bear at a developed area of Yellowstone NP.

    So is XXX dangerous? I hate the question because the answer you usually get is the childishly simplistic answer "If something bad CAN happen, then it is dangerous". Two things are ignored by these fear mongers. One is the probability of the bad thing happening while doing XXX. If it is so low as to be negligible, then you can legitimately label it a NOT dangerous. But even more importantly, how does doing XXX affect other dangers?. If doing XXX prevents keeps you from using a motor vehicle (such as hiking), then your overall risk actually drops. In such a case, labeling it as "not dangerous" is an understatement. In reality is is the opposite of dangerous, but I don't think we really have a word for that.
    Perhaps innocuous is more befitting but with an element of risk.
    "What brings no benefit to the hive brings no benefit to the bee" Marcus Aurelius

  8. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by soilman View Post
    Your numbers seem quite high. I call BS on the 100%.
    You may want to look up stats on homeless populations. No one chooses to be homeless and all homelessness causes mental and physical health issues. Wouldn't being hungry or thirsty cause hunger or thirst? Being homeless causes inevitiable problems which affect basic mental and physical well being.
    -- Probably written after hiking 8 miles and drinking a beer or two.

  9. #29
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    The most dangerous thing most of us do is getting in a car. Stand at a busy intersection and simply watch the drivers and how little attention they pay to driving their vehicle. All choices in life are about playing the odds and youve got to ask yourself one question, Do I feel lucky? Reminds me of the joke:

    I picked up a hitchhiker last night. He seemed surprised that Id pick up a stranger.
    He asked How do you know Im not a serial killer?
    I replied, The chances of two serial killers being in the same car are astronomical.

  10. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by Odd Man Out View Post
    Agree. In this country we use homelessness as a definition of mental illness. Have you seen the movie Nomadland? It shows how it's basically illegal to be homeless. Without a mailing address, you can't do anything. Get a bank account, driver's license, cell phone, passport, job, etc... Yes there are ways to work around the system. But should you have to?
    According to HUD, if you're not on a lease or own property, then you're considered homeless. It doesn't matter if you're employed making 100K per year and couchsurfing, you're still considered homeless. So, part of the problem is based on how our system defines its terms. However, the pragmatic definition of homelessness to obtain social services isn't making 100K and couchsurfing. One in 4 individuals in the USA, homless or not, have mental health issues (and I think it's actually higher than that). So, that's already 25% of the total population. But having mental health issues and being a productive member of society is not the same as having a clearly-defined mental illness and living on the streets.

    It's difficult to understand the complexity of this issue if you haven't worked with large numbers of homeless individuals in urban cities. If you're from a small town somewhere in the USA, then you're mostly interacting with outliers. The issue is complex. Most people don't even now that most large urban homeless population areas are controlled by gangs which both supply drugs and charge the homeless tax to squat on their turf. It's a highly-controlled business. And if you fail to follow the rules (or disrupt the cash flow), you die.

    Someone originally asked if the AT is safe. Well, the numbers of homeless individuals living in AT shelters is increasing. That's a fact. So, if the AT community wants to make it safer, then someone needs to step up and do something about the problem. If not, then we're just spinning our wheels complaining every year while the problem gets worse.
    -- Probably written after hiking 8 miles and drinking a beer or two.

  11. #31
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    the AT ain't dangerous. the OP doesn't hike

  12. #32
    Registered User soilman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by High-Milage Hiker View Post
    You may want to look up stats on homeless populations. No one chooses to be homeless and all homelessness causes mental and physical health issues. Wouldn't being hungry or thirsty cause hunger or thirst? Being homeless causes inevitiable problems which affect basic mental and physical well being.
    I did a quick look and the numbers I found range from 25-33% of homeless have a mental illness. Far from 100%.
    More walking, less talking.

  13. #33

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    Quote Originally Posted by soilman View Post
    I did a quick look and the numbers I found range from 25-33% of homeless have a mental illness. Far from 100%.
    You're correct. The homeless population is not 100% mentally ill. It's closer to 30% as you indicated. However, I didn't say mental illness. I said "mental health issues". There's a difference between mental health and mental illness. Everyone exists on a spectrum of mental health and obviously not everyone is mentally ill.

    https://www.heretohelp.bc.ca/q-and-a...mental-illness
    -- Probably written after hiking 8 miles and drinking a beer or two.

  14. #34

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    When I gave up my lease and spent 6 months hiking the AT in 2008, I was actually and technically homeless. If 100% of homeless have "mental health issues", then I can only assume that you think wanting to live outdoors for 6 months gives you "mental health issues". I call BS.

  15. #35

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    Quote Originally Posted by Montana View Post
    When I gave up my lease and spent 6 months hiking the AT in 2008, I was actually and technically homeless. If 100% of homeless have "mental health issues", then I can only assume that you think wanting to live outdoors for 6 months gives you "mental health issues". I call BS.
    Just the opposite Montana, and I apologize for the misunderstanding. I think wanting to thru-hike (or hike in general) is posssibly our subconscious desire to tap into our programmed need to be nomadic, which likely stems from biologically-based behavioral epigenetics. Hiking (for me) is healthy for the mind, body and spirit in a modern-day sedintary lifestyle rought with endless sources of unhealthy negative external stimuli.

    As my ancestors would probably say, "Walking...good."
    -- Probably written after hiking 8 miles and drinking a beer or two.

  16. #36

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kittyslayer View Post
    The most dangerous thing most of us do is getting in a car. Stand at a busy intersection and simply watch the drivers and how little attention they pay to driving their vehicle. All choices in life are about playing the odds and you’ve got to ask yourself one question, “Do I feel lucky?” Reminds me of the joke:

    I picked up a hitchhiker last night. He seemed surprised that I’d pick up a stranger.
    He asked “How do you know I’m not a serial killer?”
    I replied, “The chances of two serial killers being in the same car are astronomical.”
    That is a good one

  17. #37
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    No kidding, right? Every time I am driving I see people "swerving" as they are looking at or using their phone or even switching channels on their console. Many of them cross the dividing lines at least by a little. I really need a dashcam because eventually it will capture one of these idiots causing an accident.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kittyslayer View Post
    The most dangerous thing most of us do is getting in a car. Stand at a busy intersection and simply watch the drivers and how little attention they pay to driving their vehicle. All choices in life are about playing the odds and you’ve got to ask yourself one question, “Do I feel lucky?” Reminds me of the joke:

    I picked up a hitchhiker last night. He seemed surprised that I’d pick up a stranger.
    He asked “How do you know I’m not a serial killer?”
    I replied, “The chances of two serial killers being in the same car are astronomical.”
    https://tinyurl.com/MyFDresults

    A vigorous five-mile walk will do more good for an unhappy but otherwise healthy adult than all the medicine and psychology in the world. ~Paul Dudley White

  18. #38

  19. #39

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    Things like that happen on the trail, but it is pretty rare.

  20. #40
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    Yes. Terrifying. Everyone but trail crews should stay off of it for a few years at least.

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