Southbound in mid February in Roanoke, Va.

[TinFoilHat]

Not from around Va. but am here and want to hike south starting in mid February. I figure I'll start towards McAfee and then go as long as my legs will carry me. Is the weather fair in February? Not concerned with rain and mud much, just freezing temps, ice and snow. Any thoughts? Thanks!

[Traveler]

The NWS averages for the month of February in Roanoke VA is approximately 50/30 degrees with average rainfall approximately 6-days out of the month. Long range weather prognostications for the AT in that area lean toward a colder than the normal average with near normal rainfall and above average snow.

That said, the AT being a few thousand feet in elevation as opposed to valleys where most weather stations are reporting/recording from. Localized weather patterns can be exceptionally different, which lends to advice to plan for 10-degrees colder than predicted in Roanoke. In mid-february that could mean some ice (especially on northern slopes and the trail ice monorail), perhaps snow, and most certainly fog/mist/rain combinations at the freezing point along the way.

Of course forecasts can be blown, however as a rule I typically prepare for the worse case forecast as opposed to best case so I am not caught off guard. It seems every few years we hear of unprepared people getting pinned down from an foot or so of snow in the mountains of VA and NC/TN about this time of year. Looking at recent weather patterns it appears that area is where most of the wet weather coming northeast out of the Gulf tracks over the mountains, so I would suspect some weather issues.

Under the "I'd rather have it and not need it than need it and not have it" rule I would plan on bringing a pair of micro spikes, a shelter that is able to close up and repel water, snow, and ice. I'd also bring a meal or two along as a buffer in case you get pinned down by weather. Of course my opinion is based on supposition of what the weather may do and being reasonably prepared for adversity should it arrive.

Good luck!

[TinFoilHat]

Wow! That was like the perfect answer!
Thank you very much!
I own everything for colder temperatures so I guess I'll live by that rule of "have it not need it" and follow it up with the other rule down the road "I can always mail it back home"!
Thanks again!
Stay Safe

[LittleRock]

In February your biggest concern is ice, though 35 degree rain storms can be equally nasty. Winter hiking can be pleasant but you also need a lot of gear to do it safely. You should bring microspikes, a four-season tent, a zero degree sleeping bag, plenty of warm clothes, extra food in case you have to hunker down, and a stove with plenty of fuel. Good rain gear and dry bags for your clothes and sleeping bag are a must.

In sub-freezing weather, I always boil a liter of water in the evening, pour it into a Nalgene, and put it in my sleeping bag. Serves the dual purpose of warmth and keeping your drinking water from freezing.

[rdljr]

Being from the north, but having hiked the the James river sobo to Mcafee last April. I would say that I walked over nothing that would be more than slow, bare booting it with ice and snow. Micro spikes would make things quicker and easier if there was ice. Have not yet done south of Mcafee but I would say that if you are ready for cold weather it would be a great walk

[CalebJ]

For the moment our weather forecast looks pretty decent over the next couple of weeks. If you've got the gear and the experience, I don't see any reason not to go out and enjoy the trail right now.