Choosing a hard end date?

[OhioHiker]

My Bday is mid September, I would love to summit Katahdin on my Birthday at the end of a NOBO Thru hike!

How difficult would it be to plan that? how to you estimate overall time on trial and zeros? this all assumes nothing take me off trail for an extended amount of time. I know there are MANY variables, overall speed, physical conditioning, zeros, weather..

Just wondering if it can be done?

[Slo-go'en]

It can take 4 to 6 months to complete the trail. Where in that time span do you think you fall?

Let's assume you have an overall average of 12 miles a day which factors in zero and nero days. That means it will take 183 days. Working backwards from Sept 15, you would have to start March 17th. When you get a month out, you'd have to adjust your pace to finish more or less on the day you want.

[4eyedbuzzard]

Well beyond the issues of 75% of thru-hikers never make it to Baxter, and the impossibility of estimating hiking pace to that degree of certainty, even if everything goes perfectly according to plan . . . then a storm blows in on the morning of your birthday - and Baxter Rangers shut down the trails on Katahdin. Just hike and let the birthday summit be a bonus if it happens.

[peakbagger]

I have run into numerous thru hikers with a desired end date. Usually, they have plane tickets or job or school commitment. My guess is the only way to do it is get ahead and then if things are going well kill some time along the trail in Maine. The alternative is get ahead and have the people you want to celebrate come pick you up ont he trail and do a dayhike up the mountain on your birthday and then have them drop you off on your birthday.

BTW if people are meeting you it is highly advised that they get reservations in the park for camping that you can use. September is a busy month for thruhikers in the park and the AT campsite (the Birches) gets filled to capacity most days early in the day as its limited by the park to 10 (?) campers, by having the guests make reservations elsewhere in the park it guarantees you have space in the park on the day you want. Weather patterns can change in the park in September which means some days can be very crappy to dangerous on the summit. Early September can have long hot stretches where a poor summit day may only occur 1 in 5 days but later in the month it gets closer to 1 in 3. A very good reason to book a couple of nights in the park.

[HankIV]

Besides the Katahdin specifics above, I think having a target date helps keep you on pace. Some folk like to let the trail set the pace, and that works for them. I liked having a goal. Due to an unexpected 4 day break for a west coast funeral, I had to pour it on rather than throttle back. But the challenge was enjoyable.

[gpburdelljr]

From the ATC website:

“Most thru-hikers take between five and seven months. The average is a week or two shy of six months. Weather conditions tend to limit the amount of time available.”

[peakbagger]

BTW, " No Rain, No Maine"

Many folks fall into the trap of a social AT hike, it is easy to get in with a group and drift into zeros in town. Not only is it bad on the budget, its bad on mileage. Once past Damascus, it turns into a job.

[Miner]

Assuming you avoid any injury or illness that will take you off trail for more than a few days, from my experience, it's possible to plan a thru-hike out enough to get within roughly a week of when you'll actually finish. Use that to backdate to your starting date. Having some extra days in your planning will help with a few minor interruptions along the way that you can always absorb any unneeded ones toward the ends with a slower pace or extra zeros. But to actually do it requires either previous thru-hiking experience (especially with the trail in question) or a lot of research ahead of time. You'll also need to have discipline to not take unplanned zeros and the willingness to walk away from a group you may enjoy their company to meet your daily mileage goals and how long to take in town. If you join up with others, YOUR hike becomes THEIR hike which may throw off your schedule.

Basically your hike becomes your full time job and you can't just wing it and do what you want. Not everyone wants to hike that way. If you whole point to is to enjoy yourself, unless you have a commitment like returning to a job or a life important event like a wedding, it isn't a good idea to constrain yourself like that. When I hiked the PCT, I got injured on the 2nd week and was off trail for 3 weeks. I was concerned about finishing before winter at the Canadian border so I was forced to do just that and had a must finish by date. I had a certain daily mileage goal for each section and I stuck to it. I only took an unplanned zero when I decided I could live with the consequence on my schedule. I also skipped a few planned zeros for a nero or even just a half day off along the way to stay on schedule since I figured my body could get away with it.

As for the research needed, you basically identify where you are physically, your age, past hiking experience, and a very realistic and honest pack weight (going lighter means easier to maintain a higher pace and lessens the chance for injury), and then search online for Journals, blogs, vlogs of people that seem to be similar to yourself who successfully completed the trail in question in roughly the same seasons as you (someone hiking in snow will go slower and some hiking in late fall will have shorter days to hike in). You then figure out what resupply locations they used and how long it took them between those; if you picked your people out correctly, you should see a similar pace for most of them for a given section. Most trails have sections that are easier or harder than others so you have to figure out that an average pace for one may not be the same as another. You then use their actual schedule as your guide of when to start and how you should pace yourself. Put it all into a spreadsheet that you update with your actual arrival dates as you hike so you can see how far off your planning you are so you can adjust your pace for the next sections.

This is a spreadsheet I did for an AT SOBO hike, to give you an idea (note some minor reroutes since then will have changed the mileage a little). It is essentially the same thing I did for the PCT, only I didn't need to finish on a given date, so I was only using it to check my pace, see how much food to carry and where to send any packages or my bounce box on the trail (to see if I'd arrive on a weekend, in which case I sent my boxes further up the trail). I could look at the next 3 weeks and know what town was best to send it, as I knew I'd arrive within half a day of when I planned. I do adjust things in the spreadsheet as I hike so the dates are the actual ones I arrived so things propagate forward with the correct dates.

[gpburdelljr]

Make your best guess on when to start, but don’t let trying to reach the end on a specific date 6 +/- months out spoil your enjoyment of the hike. Also, don’t hike through injuries trying to meet a specific date.

[LoneStranger]

It is as simple as figuring out how long it will take you to do the hike and starting on the right date

I put together a spreadsheet that paces me from a Feb start to celebrating my BDay on Katahdin. Definitely not making BSP reservations and totally expect to arrive a few weeks later assuming all goes well. As PB suggested, all you can really do is allow too much time and enjoy neros and zeros if you have to. Maine in the Fall is quite nice for sleeping in and making camp early.

[The Solemates]

We kept to a schedule we made beforehand pretty much the whole hike. We were only about a week off (early). It’s easily doable with planning.

[peakbagger]

It is as simple as figuring out how long it will take you to do the hike and starting on the right date

I put together a spreadsheet that paces me from a Feb start to celebrating my BDay on Katahdin. Definitely not making BSP reservations and totally expect to arrive a few weeks later assuming all goes well. As PB suggested, all you can really do is allow too much time and enjoy neros and zeros if you have to. Maine in the Fall is quite nice for sleeping in and making camp early.

Maine has a few campsites worth spending a few days at. Cooper Brook, the Antlers and Pierce Pond are all worth a couple of days to hang out.