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  1. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by RockDoc View Post
    Vaccines are a temporary fix. You will need another one in a few months because the effects wear off. Just like flu vaccines that people have to take every single year...
    Partly true, partly not. Influenza viruses mutate rapidly so the virus that causes this years flu is different enough from last years influenza virus that immunity to last years influenza virus won't protect you from this years influenza virus. That is one reason you need to a flu shot every year. So far at least the mutations to the COVID-19 virus have not produced changes to the virus that would make current vaccines ineffective. How long the immunity to Covid-19 from the vaccine will last has not determined because it is so new however Moderna expects their vaccine to provide immunity for at least 1 year. Time will tell if that is the case or not.
    If you don't stand for something, you will fall for anything.

  2. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by Traffic Jam View Post
    I just got the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine. It didnít hurt but my arm started getting sore within 15 minutes. I expect fatigue and muscle soreness for the next few days.edit...itís not a localized (at the injection site) soreness. The soreness goes up to my shoulder and down into my hand.
    Quote Originally Posted by PennyPincher View Post
    that doesn't sound "great." I'm wondering how long that lasts and if it causes any damage.
    Quote Originally Posted by JNI64 View Post
    I just received my first dose Friday night. The actual shot i barely felt but yes me too shortly after my shoulder started hurting. Saturday it felt like a mule had kicked me i couldn't even lift my arm above my head and felt sick. Saturday night I ended up taking nyquil. Today back to normal I think although I crave BRAINS !! Just kidding !!
    My wife and I got our first dose (Moderna) Jan 13. For reference, we are 59 and 64 years old respectively and have some underlying medical issues. We both work for Government agencies that bring us into contact with large numbers of other people/public. I had moderate, decreasing to mild, soreness in the general deltoid/shoulder area starting about an hour after the injection and lasting about two days total. Very similar to the reaction I had to a flu shot one year. Sometimes I get sore from these, sometimes I don't. My wife had mild nausea for about 6 hours total after the shot. She has allergies to bee/wasp/scorpion stings, so the EMT's monitored her for about 1/2 an hour at the facility, but the symptoms didn't increase and they gradually declined as the day went on.

    In a perfect world we would have had more extensive clinical trials and such regarding these vaccines. But this is what we got for now to fight this. I have a 50 year old coworker in otherwise good health who is currently in the hospital on a BiPAP and getting Remdesivir treatment. He went from mild fever to shortness of breath and low SPO2 readings in less than 24 hours. He seems to be "on the mend" - for now. We've had to shut down our entire facility ten times since March due to confirmed COVID cases, quarantined countless employees due to exposure, had people hospitalized, and sadly had one person die.

    Is there some risk in getting this vaccine? As with any injection/vaccine, yes. Noting is without some risk. But that risk is very low from what we are seeing. There's almost undoubtedly a bigger risk, both individually and in the public health context, from not getting vaccinated. I'll deal with the sore shoulder if it provides protection.

    BTW, JNI64, did you have any leftovers? You know, BRAINS? I have this odd craving...
    I was self employed once, but it proved too stressful. My boss was a jerk and my employee was a slacker - I didn't know whether to quit or fire myself.

  3. #123
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    I'll be 57 next month with no underlying medical conditions . I've never had a flu shot, my theory has always been don't fix it if it ain't broke. But the serious consequences of this and I felt a certain responsibility to do it.

    I work in a major school system as emergency essential personnel. I work nights so that puts me out of alot people Traffic. The guy I work with at night cares for his elderly dementia mother and I would feel awful if I was to give it to him somehow.

    I went and bought some home gym equipment because they can't seem to make half the people walking around the gym wear a mask. So I really don't have much risk ,shoot i was social distancing before social distancing was cool .....

    4eyedbuzzard sorry no I need all the BRAINS i have I can't spare none I really need the little I have!
    Last edited by JNI64; 01-18-2021 at 13:19.

  4. #124
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    Even though the vaccinated are supposedly 95% " safe" .
    For how long ?? We still have to wear mask ,keep distance, can we still be asymptomatic and pass it on ? Still alot of unknowns, but it's a start i reckon.

    Out of the 10 it was made available to Friday night 2 refused .
    That's 80% ,now if we can get 80% of everybody else.....

    So really the thread topic " how well covid-19 effect the 2021 hiking season " i don't think anyone knows yet. I mean if done legally as far as quarantining in certain states.

    Right now the county i work in is at 17% no where near ready to open schools. As a country we're at 4,000 dying every day, not good,not good at all!!

    So I really don't know if I'll get to do last year's hiking this year or a plan b for me is starting to hike the SNP trails this year. Staying close to home doing loops no rides , no towns, no shelters.
    It's all good in the woods! Getting out is getting out!

  5. #125
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    I got my first dose last week and had no side effects. I now feel I can responsibly resume the hike I postponed last spring.
    More walking, less talking.

  6. #126
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    I read an article in The NY Times that says the vaccine is being undersold. Even with 95% efficacy it is one of the best vaccines. There is still a lot to be learned about the virus and vaccine. Doctors say if you are one of the 5% that become infected after immunization chances are the symptoms will be mild. The vaccine can be a life saver.
    More walking, less talking.

  7. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by soilman View Post
    I read an article in The NY Times that says the vaccine is being undersold. Even with 95% efficacy it is one of the best vaccines. There is still a lot to be learned about the virus and vaccine. Doctors say if you are one of the 5% that become infected after immunization chances are the symptoms will be mild. The vaccine can be a life saver.
    It is far better than the seasonal flu vaccines and I have also read that even for the 5% who get symptoms of COVID, symptoms are much less severe. The issue with the vaccine is that it does not necessarily prevent someone from acting as a carrier of the virus and passing it on to unvaccinated people. So that's why wearing masks even after vaccination is something that public health authorities are recommending until enough of the population is immunized to achieve so-called "herd immunity", at which point we should be able to go back to something resembling normalcy.

  8. #128
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    Pardon if this has been mentioned, but one of the biggest differences that I saw in the age of covid (which may also apply to 2021) is that non-USPS places that normally hold mail drops have decided to no longer offer that service. It is ALWAYS advisable to call ahead and confirm that a business will hold a package, no matter what the internet or previous guides say.

  9. #129

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    Quote Originally Posted by Prov View Post
    one of the biggest differences that I saw in the age of covid (which may also apply to 2021) is that non-USPS places that normally hold mail drops have decided to no longer offer that service. It is ALWAYS advisable to call ahead and confirm that a business will hold a package, no matter what the internet or previous guides say.
    I had no trouble at all in the south (GA-NC-TN) this past fall (2020). I absolutely agree about calling ahead, which I did, and every place I contacted was open and willing to hold a mailed box. That included 2 motels, 3 hostels, and 3 outfitters.

  10. #130
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    Predicting the state of Covid and government regulation and how they'll affect the AT this year is challenging, but there are promising trends, apart even from the vaccine.

    Transmission rates suddenly began dropping in most states about a few weeks ago. See: Rt: Effective Reproduction Number. As of today, 37 states are below the critical 1.0 threshhold, which is up from about 5 a few weeks ago. The numbers are the most encouraging I've seen since last summer. The key IHME model (COVID-19 (healthdata.org) shows the rate of infection peaking in the US right now and just at the threshold of a rather steep decline. Mortality, which lags by a few weeks, is tapering off and projected to begin a sharp decline by the end of the month.

    It is possible the vaccine will only add to this good news; it is also possible that new strains or other new factors will affect the trends, positively or negatively, so that there are no certainties.

    Finally, it remains to be seen how the new administration perceives everything - whether there's a move for enhanced lockdowns or whether an improving environment (assuming models and trends are accurate) allows easing at some not-too-distant point in the future.

    Overall, the trends look promising for a much less worrisome situation by March or April. I'm pretty optimistic about my planned section hike in late April.

  11. #131

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    https://kmph.com/news/local/batch-of...ccines-on-hold

    Moderna vaccines on hold due to allergic reactions found in Tulare, Kings & Kern counties

    https://tinyurl.com/MyFDresults

    A vigorous five-mile walk will do more good for an unhappy but otherwise healthy adult than all the medicine and psychology in the world. ~Paul Dudley White

  12. #132

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Roper View Post
    Predicting the state of Covid and government regulation and how they'll affect the AT this year is challenging, but there are promising trends, apart even from the vaccine.

    Transmission rates suddenly began dropping in most states about a few weeks ago. See: Rt: Effective Reproduction Number. As of today, 37 states are below the critical 1.0 threshhold, which is up from about 5 a few weeks ago. The numbers are the most encouraging I've seen since last summer. The key IHME model (COVID-19 (healthdata.org) shows the rate of infection peaking in the US right now and just at the threshold of a rather steep decline. Mortality, which lags by a few weeks, is tapering off and projected to begin a sharp decline by the end of the month.

    It is possible the vaccine will only add to this good news; it is also possible that new strains or other new factors will affect the trends, positively or negatively, so that there are no certainties.

    Finally, it remains to be seen how the new administration perceives everything - whether there's a move for enhanced lockdowns or whether an improving environment (assuming models and trends are accurate) allows easing at some not-too-distant point in the future.

    Overall, the trends look promising for a much less worrisome situation by March or April. I'm pretty optimistic about my planned section hike in late April.
    We're not going to get any of the politics that have been involved with the pandemic other than to note that there's absolutely no way the new administration is going to be any more lenient than the last one. That's plainly stated. No discussion of that statement is necessary and frankly anything further on politics will be removed. If you are reporting actual conditions on the ground regarding state regulations or short term planning statements from official sources ok. Trail businesses with Covid restrictions or specific closures also fine.

    I have to say, using projections of case numbers going down are a significant reason for the numbers not actually going down. Case numbers flatlined mostly but never went down. So if people could just wait until daily case numbers are ACTUALLY DOWN, returned to low numbers of daily cases, we'd be saving the lives of ~2% of the difference in numbers (flat level of cases - low case numbers)*2%. Please stop taking your foot off the breaks too soon. They are too many people dying who don't have to.

    But we're not going to discuss the prediction stuff any further. Far too much non-hiking material involved with that. Real time trail conditions folks.
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  13. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by PennyPincher View Post
    https://kmph.com/news/local/batch-of...ccines-on-hold

    Moderna vaccines on hold due to allergic reactions found in Tulare, Kings & Kern counties
    To be more specific, one batch of Moderna vaccine (LOT# 041L20A) is on hold in that local area of California due to some people (less than 10) experiencing more severe allergic reactions that occurred at ONE vaccination site. The fact that these reactions seemed to only have occurred at the one vaccination site raises the possibility/suspicion in my mind that something may have occurred at that specific site in the vaccination handling, storage, or clinical process, rather than necessarily being indicative of the whole lot/batch of vaccine being somehow at fault. As this seems to be a local phenomena, there is also the possibility of those affected sharing a common genetic background that might make them more susceptible to a severe allergic reaction. Or they could all have some unique underlying medical condition(s) making them more susceptible. There just isn't enough info yet to determine why the allergic reaction rate at this location was higher than anticipated. I would hesitate to jump to any conclusions either way, and wait for Moderna and CDC investigation results.

    Just FWIW, I checked my card and both my wife and I received our shots from that same exact batch (we are in Fort Worth, TX). We had some mild symptoms/reactions, I had soreness in the arm and she had a bit of nausea as I stated in my prior post (#122 in this thread). These are both commonly reported side-effects/symptoms. We were monitored for approx 1/2 hour after receiving the shot with roughly 30 other people who were considered higher risk for allergic reaction and asked to stay for monitoring. We didn't see anyone who required any medical intervention during that time, nor have we heard of any in our local area.

    For more details, here's Moderna's statement: https://investors.modernatx.com/news...th-cdph-report

    and the CA Dept. of Public Health statement: https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA.../NR21-021.aspx
    Last edited by 4eyedbuzzard; 01-19-2021 at 19:24.
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  14. #134

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    The vaccine, sadly, will not end our problems. You can still transmit the virus to others and will need to wear a mask and social distance, because the virus lives within your nasal passage. Fauci has said this. It is discussed thoroughly in the new Joe Rogan interview with Tulsi Gabbard (COVID discussion starts at about 125 mins).

    So don't fool yourself. You won't be able to go visit Grandma just because you got vaccinated. Hiking will still be problematic.

    [I don't mean to be a downer, but I am a research scientist and I seek out info]

  15. #135
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    The vaccines reduce the number of symptomatic cases by 95%. Even if they have no effect whatsoever on asymptomatic numbers (we don't know yet), that's still a tremendous reduction in the rate the disease spreads.

  16. #136
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    Vaccines are only going to work if we get enough of a percentage of the population that choose to do so. And alot of we don't know yet, like when will we have to be vaccinated again?

  17. #137
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    Quote Originally Posted by RockDoc View Post
    The vaccine, sadly, will not end our problems. You can still transmit the virus to others and will need to wear a mask and social distance, because the virus lives within your nasal passage. Fauci has said this. It is discussed thoroughly in the new Joe Rogan interview with Tulsi Gabbard (COVID discussion starts at about 125 mins).

    So don't fool yourself. You won't be able to go visit Grandma just because you got vaccinated. Hiking will still be problematic.

    [I don't mean to be a downer, but I am a research scientist and I seek out info]
    I have a question from what I understand this covid vaccine is not like the flu vaccine, Meaning this doesn't introduce the virus itself into your system but more a antibody to fight off ?

    So if this is the case then why do so many people get sick after taking the shot ? Present company included. From what I understand the second shot the "booster " has even stronger side effects.( I watched some of that interview I'll have to catch the rest of it).
    Last edited by JNI64; 01-22-2021 at 02:54.

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    As far as I understand it:
    When the vac is sharpening up your immune system against the Corona virus, this is hard work for the body to control a possible overshooting of the immune system.
    More so as the second shot meets an already somewhat hot immune system, giving you an even harder immune reaction.

  19. #139
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    Quote Originally Posted by JNI64 View Post
    I have a question from what I understand this covid vaccine is not like the flu vaccine, Meaning this doesn't introduce the virus itself into your system but more a antibody to fight off ?

    So if this is the case then why do so many people get sick after taking the shot ? Present company included. From what I understand the second shot the "booster " has even stronger side effects.( I watched some of that interview I'll have to catch the rest of it).
    My layman's understanding is that the mRNA vaccines like those from Moderna and Pfizer duplicate/mimic? the protein spike portion of the Coronavirus, the part that the virus uses to infiltrate your cells and then allow the virus entry to cause your cells to start replicating the virus. This is different than many traditional vaccines that use whole dead virus and other techniques, the mRNA only presents the part of the virus that initially invades the cell wall. So, after receiving the vaccine, your body's immune system starts to produce antibodies to fight off this intrusive spike - basically antibodies and other specialized cells and such that bind to this spike to prevent it from infiltrating your cells. Your reaction - feeling ill, soreness, etc. is your immune system at work. It has detected an invader. So you get the (hopefully controlled/limited) feeling bad part of the immune system response - but without actually having your cells replicating the virus. The response is limited because only X amount of what the body detects as a threat has been injected as there is no actual virus, just the mRNA protein spike, and it's not replicating so the feeling bad part is limited as well. This is also why there are two doses required. The first to "prime" your immune system to initially recognize the threat and start the process, the second to produce even more antibodies and other defensive cells, etc. This pretty much primes your immune system to both recognize and have a defense already in place if and when you are exposed to the real virus. You don't want too strong an immune response all at once during the immunization process as this creates problems such as cytokine storm in where the reaction causes severe cell inflammation and other problems due to too big an immune response all at once (the body starts attacking itself). If I got some of this wrong, please correct me. This is pretty new ground for most of us.
    Last edited by 4eyedbuzzard; 01-22-2021 at 07:15.
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  20. #140
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    You put it way better, 4eyedbuzzard.
    May I add just one tiny detail:

    The mRNA-vac like the one from Moderna/Pfitzer, does in fact introduce a tiny mRNA-protein (that has nothing to do with the virus itself) into the cell that causes the cell to produce a chunk of the virus' protein, especially the spike protein that is typical for this Corona virus, and this self-produced protein is the teaching material that educates the immune system for what to watch out and remove.

    The vector vaccines like the Astra Zeneca one, uses (part of) a dead virus of some other kind that is harmless for humans, these virus will be added with chunks of the Corona-Virus, and that combination will be injected by the vac.
    The harmless virus' body is needed to allow the whole soup to get into human's cells.

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