Originally Posted by
MuadDale
I've been nerding out on this pandemic since January, and every model I've seen has this initial surge of cases blunted by the various mitigation and suppression methods nations are presently enacting, but there's more to it.
--->I make no guarantee or prediction to this data, I just really like to read and learn new things, and this is what I've seen from more than one (in my estimation) very credible source. These sources may have had different fatality rates and/or rates of infection for the virus, but they all agree on the following. I am not a virologist or epidemiologist and these aren't my computations, and I'm not the one who has to make federal or state policy decisions. I'm just passing along what I read and found interesting.<---
The bell curves we all see showing the pandemic ending in a few months are neat to see, but they're predicated on whatever suppression methods that informed the model basically being permanent. This is unrealistic for many reasons, economic mostly, so what happens after the initial surge has passed?
Based on what I've read, we'll likely see something like the following:
-This initial surge will wane, and the present restrictions will be relaxed (they have to be because we need an economy).
-People will mingle and travel again, and we will have another surge in cases.
-Mitigation and suppression methods will be reenacted in some form and severity based on a "trigger" of something like "# of new cases per week" or "# of ICU beds filled due to COVID-19", maybe nationwide but I expect them to be targeted at the specific region(s) with outbreaks.
-This follow-on surge will be mitigated, mitigation methods will be relaxed based on whatever trigger that caused them to be enacted, leading to more surges and so on, each likely less severe than the preceding one.
-This cycle will continue until enough people have contracted the virus (if "herd immunity" is in fact a thing for this virus, still unknown as far as I can tell) and/or we are able to field an effective vaccine to billions of people. That particular data is beyond the scope of everything I've read, and I'm not sure the smart people know enough about this particular virus to know for sure what the "far end" looks like yet. Maybe they do and I'm just not aware of that document yet.
So to get to the point of the thread, it's really hard to make a prediction about trail availability next spring for many reason, not least of which is the fact that we may not be out of the woods (lol) with COVID-19 by then. I'm really disappointed as I was planning on a NOBO 8-10 week LASH starting next February using a bunch of saved leave during my transition from military to civilian life. If it doesn't happen next year, I won't get another chance for at least 10 more years.
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