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  1. #41
    Registered User Paisley1985's Avatar
    Join Date
    10-24-2011
    Location
    Durham, North Carolina, United States
    Age
    35
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    36

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    I'm planning to do a NOBO LASH in 2021 - aiming for half the trail. I'll have my trail boss on sending reply supply boxes, so aiming to limit my time in more populated areas. I'm also in the life is short camp, its time for me to get some goals accomplished.

  2. #42
    Registered User
    Join Date
    08-14-2015
    Location
    Rome, Georgia
    Posts
    301

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    This person's April prediction for how the pandemic would develop is amazingly accurate.

    Quote Originally Posted by MuadDale View Post
    I've been nerding out on this pandemic since January, and every model I've seen has this initial surge of cases blunted by the various mitigation and suppression methods nations are presently enacting, but there's more to it.

    --->I make no guarantee or prediction to this data, I just really like to read and learn new things, and this is what I've seen from more than one (in my estimation) very credible source. These sources may have had different fatality rates and/or rates of infection for the virus, but they all agree on the following. I am not a virologist or epidemiologist and these aren't my computations, and I'm not the one who has to make federal or state policy decisions. I'm just passing along what I read and found interesting.<---

    The bell curves we all see showing the pandemic ending in a few months are neat to see, but they're predicated on whatever suppression methods that informed the model basically being permanent. This is unrealistic for many reasons, economic mostly, so what happens after the initial surge has passed?

    Based on what I've read, we'll likely see something like the following:

    -This initial surge will wane, and the present restrictions will be relaxed (they have to be because we need an economy).
    -People will mingle and travel again, and we will have another surge in cases.
    -Mitigation and suppression methods will be reenacted in some form and severity based on a "trigger" of something like "# of new cases per week" or "# of ICU beds filled due to COVID-19", maybe nationwide but I expect them to be targeted at the specific region(s) with outbreaks.
    -This follow-on surge will be mitigated, mitigation methods will be relaxed based on whatever trigger that caused them to be enacted, leading to more surges and so on, each likely less severe than the preceding one.
    -This cycle will continue until enough people have contracted the virus (if "herd immunity" is in fact a thing for this virus, still unknown as far as I can tell) and/or we are able to field an effective vaccine to billions of people. That particular data is beyond the scope of everything I've read, and I'm not sure the smart people know enough about this particular virus to know for sure what the "far end" looks like yet. Maybe they do and I'm just not aware of that document yet.

    So to get to the point of the thread, it's really hard to make a prediction about trail availability next spring for many reason, not least of which is the fact that we may not be out of the woods (lol) with COVID-19 by then. I'm really disappointed as I was planning on a NOBO 8-10 week LASH starting next February using a bunch of saved leave during my transition from military to civilian life. If it doesn't happen next year, I won't get another chance for at least 10 more years.

  3. #43

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    It seems to me we are getting used to what we need to do. Wear a mask inside or with groups. Stand apart. Avoid full shelters and hostel bunk rooms. If I were looking for the NOBO peak social bubble scene, might push that out a year unless
    an ironclad vaccine arrives. Otherwise I think some common sense will do the trick.

    Anyone have a good source for some ultralight common sense? And face masks?

  4. #44
    Registered User
    Join Date
    03-18-2019
    Location
    Mt juliet TN
    Age
    57
    Posts
    8

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    I agree that as time goes on more of us are getting used to the new way of life. I suspect that this will remain for some time. I worked for the airlines and we saw a marked increase in mask wearing since SARs and swine flu way before Covid. Whilst many younger people long for the days of full bars and nightlife, for many older (including myself) it will be a long time before I trust unknown people crowding around me.
    As for the trail - even on a busy day in the mountains I see only a few people.
    I always avoided crowded shelters previously due Norovirus, but I have rarely seen crowded shelters (apart from GSMNP) and most shelters are generally positioned in the middle of a large wooded area - so alternate spots were located easily.
    Closing the shelter privies (I do prefer not digging a hole) does worry me - especially as most do not have any doors that could be closed. (Liberal dousing in sanitizer - especially under the nose before entering)
    One group I worry about that may get adversely affected are the hostels. They are and have been a vital part of the trail for many years. Not sure that I am ready to share a closed small room with twenty other snoring people - truthfully I never have been. I will miss the social aspects of having a few beers sitting around the TV watching DVDs and the communal breakfast table may also be a thing of the past for me. Or I will wear a mask! Hopefully Hostels can offer more covered camping or other ways to change their business models until confidence and a cure returns.
    As for the zero days in town - I have spent quite a few nights in hotels recently - all seem to be open and to have mask requirements and modified cleaning regimes. Most grocery stores have masks and cleaning policies. You can get hot food - but restaurants and bars are still struggling to get full occupancy. (Another social downer)
    So next year (2021) will be my retirement and finally the thru hike of the AT. I suspect the trail experience will not be what it used to be - but with a little care/masks/sanitizer and distancing - I will still have a great time.

  5. #45

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mogster View Post
    I agree that as time goes on more of us are getting used to the new way of life....
    So next year (2021) will be my retirement and finally the thru hike of the AT. I suspect the trail experience will not be what it used to be - but with a little care/masks/sanitizer and distancing - I will still have a great time.
    Other than the retiring part, agreed. Taking a leave (and Iím sure some Aleve!) then back to work.

  6. #46

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    I did run into a hiker out there in July.
    They were starting a thru hike that got closed out because of virus.
    He - was with brother who did not restart - was trying to go as far north as he could after he lost 3 months.

    So.... There may be others that will restart from where they left off - moving the bubble furthur up or making it larger.

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