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  1. #1
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    Default Trail Conditions and Hiker Bubble Question

    I had planned on hiking from Monson SB for a week on the 4th of May, but it seems that trail conditions (rain and snow melt) are going to keep me from doing that section at that time.

    I was thinking of jumping down to the Mass border and starting there going south for my week instead.

    Question #1: Will the trail conditions be conducive for a trail start of May 4th?

    Question #2: Will I have to worry about any hiker bubbles? I don't mind at all seeing hikers on trail. I don't want to see 45 tents set up outside a shelter like I did in the Smokies this past weekend. I want to avoid that at all costs.


    Thanks in advance

  2. #2
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    Bubble in MA? I don't think so.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by bighammer View Post
    Bubble in MA? I don't think so.
    That's what I was counting on and why I was thinking of going to MA -- just want to make sure I'm not swamping through trail due to all the snow melt. Was hoping trail conditions are conducive to a quick 90+ mile trek :-)

  4. #4
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    https://www.wherearethehikers.com/heatmap/

    this shows where the bubbles are....they are currently near us
    .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ..........
    Travel not for the destination, but for the joy of the journey.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by downyonder View Post
    https://www.wherearethehikers.com/heatmap/
    this shows where the bubbles are....they are currently near us
    thanks a bunch!

  6. #6

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    Bring some DEET and treat clothes with Permetherin
    Order your copy of the Appalachian Trail Passport at www.ATPassport.com

    Green Mountain House Hostel
    Manchester Center, VT

    http://www.greenmountainhouse.net

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by PepTalk View Post
    That's what I was counting on and why I was thinking of going to MA -- just want to make sure I'm not swamping through trail due to all the snow melt. Was hoping trail conditions are conducive to a quick 90+ mile trek :-)
    Precipitation in western MA and CT has been between 4 to 8-inches since January, over the past week alone there has been another 1.5-inches of rain with rain in the forecast for most of next week into the following week. Though weather forecasts can and do change frequently in the Northeast, the trend has been extremely wet for the last several months, which has elevated water tables significantly. As a result, ponding and run-off issues abound. There has been some localized trail damage due to people walking around ponding or avoiding brooks in the treadway, exacerbating mud issues and overall trail deterioration.

    Though shelters and/or camping areas are required use in MA and CT the good news is no hiker bubble. Its not likely there will be a lot of people along the MA/CT/MY corridor during the week, that may change over a weekend however. If tenting, you will want to look twice if not three times at a selected site to be sure you are not going to wake up in a pond or run-off brook.

    It will probably be wet a lot with parts of the trail providing a sloppy trek with spotty weather that will likely impact clear weather mileage. But overall doable.

  8. #8

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    The trail between Dalton and Lee will be swampy with lots of bugs. Between Lee and Jug End it will be swampy in all the lower elevations....with bugs. No crowds however....way too early.
    ...the maddest of all is to see life as it is, and not as it should be. Cervantes

  9. #9
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    Looks like if my son and I start in Catawba, VA in about a week, we may be in the bubble. Maybe we should rethink this plan....

  10. #10
    Registered User colorado_rob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bighammer View Post
    Looks like if my son and I start in Catawba, VA in about a week, we may be in the bubble. Maybe we should rethink this plan....
    I think you'd be fine; Per the "heat map" link, putting in May 5 (1 week hence), looks like you'd be pretty much in front of the historical "main bubble", which tends to converge on Damascus in early May, for obvious reasons. We're starting close to there (thinking Daleville) in a few days, slightly earlier than you.

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