Hurricane Florence - Likely Impact on AT

[Corley]

The Virginia Department of Emergency Management (VDEM) is warning residents and visitors to prepare for Hurricane Florence. The current storm track has this category 3 hurricane hitting NC late Thursday evening. This slow moving storm is strengthening this morning so its likely to produce very high winds and torrential rains affecting most of the AT in VA. The most recent updates on this storm can be found at http://www.vaemergency.gov/

VDEM put the Shenandoah Mountain Rescue Group and other SAR units on standby last night.

[Venchka]

And the Carolinas. And Tennessee.
The mountains are already soggy.
New rain won’t be any fun.
Be safe Y’all!
Wayne

[Bird Dawg]

I started section hiking the AT in 2015. My first trip was supposed to go from Erwin, TN, to Damascus. That year, we hiked straight into the teeth of Tropical Storm / Hurricane Juaquin. I had to get off the Trail at Mountain Harbor Hostel because the chafing was so bad I could not continue. In 2016, my buddies and I continued north - from Damascus - and have hiked every year since. This year, I am all set to hike the missing section between Mountain Harbour and Damascus. Want to guess when? I'm leaving this Wednesday and will hit the Trail Thursday with a friend who's never been on the AT. I guess I'll just have to refer to the section between Erwin and Damascus as "Hurricane Alley". Wish us luck!

[DownYonder]

I started section hiking the AT in 2015. My first trip was supposed to go from Erwin, TN, to Damascus. That year, we hiked straight into the teeth of Tropical Storm / Hurricane Juaquin. I had to get off the Trail at Mountain Harbor Hostel because the chafing was so bad I could not continue. In 2016, my buddies and I continued north - from Damascus - and have hiked every year since. This year, I am all set to hike the missing section between Mountain Harbour and Damascus. Want to guess when? I'm leaving this Wednesday and will hit the Trail Thursday with a friend who's never been on the AT. I guess I'll just have to refer to the section between Erwin and Damascus as "Hurricane Alley". Wish us luck!

They are currently projecting as much as 12" of rain in that area. Having gone thru Hugo 20 miles away from Damascus, I can tell you that you might want to review your plans on Wednesday evening. It was just upgraded to CAT 4 and might be worse than Hugo. Good luck!!!!

[Quik]

I'm hiking SOBO with a fairly weak signal off and on.

Has there been a landfall path(s) posted by the weather forecasters, any predictions of path after making landfall?

Any info posted here would be helpful for me and others currently hiking south. It's better to be in town and out of weather like this than hanging between two trees.

thanks

[Crushed Grapes]

I'm hiking SOBO with a fairly weak signal off and on.

Has there been a landfall path(s) posted by the weather forecasters, any predictions of path after making landfall?

Any info posted here would be helpful for me and others currently hiking south. It's better to be in town and out of weather like this than hanging between two trees.

thanks

This is from NOAA as of 11 am this morning
145000_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

[DownYonder]

I'm hiking SOBO with a fairly weak signal off and on.

Has there been a landfall path(s) posted by the weather forecasters, any predictions of path after making landfall?

Any info posted here would be helpful for me and others currently hiking south. It's better to be in town and out of weather like this than hanging between two trees.

thanks

Crushed Grapes post shows what most models predict.

[SteelCut]

[QUOTE=Quik;2222538Has there been a landfall path(s) posted by the weather forecasters, any predictions of path after making landfall?thanks[/QUOTE]
The current forecast track is for landfall around south-eastern NC coast and then curving up through central NC and central/southwest VA. Landfall is projected late Thursday or early Friday with sustained tropical storm force wind strength winds (>40mph) out ahead of the storm that will impact the NC/VA AT sections as early as Thursday.

Of course, these predictions and tracks can change.

Good luck.

[Crushed Grapes]

Crushed Grapes post shows what most models predict.

Crazy how well defined the cone is, if I remember correctly a few days ago it was all over the place

[gpburdelljr]

From the ATC:

http://www.appalachiantrail.org/home.../trail-updates

[SawnieRobertson]

They are currently projecting as much as 12" of rain in that area. Having gone thru Hugo 20 miles away from Damascus, I can tell you that you might want to review your plans on Wednesday evening. It was just upgraded to CAT 4 and might be worse than Hugo. Good luck!!!!

Where did you learn that there may be 12" ahead for this area? Thanks.

[Venchka]

Soggy earth. Dead trees from fires in recent memory.
More rain on soggy ground.
Dead trees falling.
Be safe Y’all!
Wayne

[Venchka]

Where did you learn that there may be 12" ahead for this area? Thanks.

Reason enough to keep a close watch on the storm. Stay home if there’s any possibility of flooding and wind and downed trees.
Watch the weather, wind & rainfall, in Asheville and Boone North Carolina. If it’s bad there it’s pretty much bad throughout the mountains.
Be safe!
Wayne

[Venchka]

Where did you learn that there may be 12" ahead for this area? Thanks.

Currently watching the Weather Channel. It’s all canned warnings and hyped computer model numbers right now. Gotta keep the ratings up. Too early to tell what will actually happen.
Suffice to say this year has been very wet already in the Carolinas and Virginia. More rain will not be pretty.
Hiking in the mountains this week and next would be interesting to say the least.
Wayne

[johnnybgood]

Where did you learn that there may be 12" ahead for this area? Thanks.

There are two climatological weather data models used to predict storm tracks for hurricanes. One is the European model and the other is the U.S. data model.
The Euro model has the track more westerly and "hanging up" in the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains spinning around like a washing machine.
More than 12" over 3-5 days is very possible. Even the U.S. which has it turning more north has the entire state picking up significant rainfall over the entire weather event.

[bbikebbs]

Maybe this site will be of some help:

https://www.atweather.org/

[Traveler]

There are several models used to track these storms, called "Spaghetti models". These are updated every 6-hours (5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm). These models have a lot of tracks depending on the data set being used, many of them now showing a possible trend to the north, making landfall around Cape Haderas and into Southern VA. Some of the tracks are trending more west into the Raleigh area with outliers to Charlotte area.

Making landfall predictions are very difficult and are rarely accurate until a day or two prior to landfall, so many things change from the water temperature to steering wind development.

Spaghetti models for Florence.jpg

There will be some changes in the forecast, but most everyone on the eastern coastal areas will get wet.

[Quik]

This is from NOAA as of 11 am this morning
145000_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

The current forecast track is for landfall around south-eastern NC coast and then curving up through central NC and central/southwest VA. Landfall is projected late Thursday or early Friday with sustained tropical storm force wind strength winds (>40mph) out ahead of the storm that will impact the NC/VA AT sections as early as Thursday.

Of course, these predictions and tracks can change.

Good luck.

There are several models used to track these storms, called "Spaghetti models". These are updated every 6-hours (5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm). These models have a lot of tracks depending on the data set being used, many of them now showing a possible trend to the north, making landfall around Cape Haderas and into Southern VA. Some of the tracks are trending more west into the Raleigh area with outliers to Charlotte area.

Making landfall predictions are very difficult and are rarely accurate until a day or two prior to landfall, so many things change from the water temperature to steering wind development.

Spaghetti models for Florence.jpg

There will be some changes in the forecast, but most everyone on the eastern coastal areas will get wet.

Thanks everyone. I should be in Kent CT on Wed, have an overnight stay there reservation already made. Will have better internet access and weather updates, then decide what is best at that point, proceed or hold up. Heavy rain is one thing I can deal with, 12" is something entirely different then add in the wind to a saturated ground, no thanks. It's time for dinner and a good night sleep, back at it early in the morning.

[DownYonder]

Maybe this site will be of some help:

https://www.atweather.org/

Thanks for posting this!! I had never seen it.

[Mother Natures Son]

As of 6:30 P.M. (Monday.) Hurricane Florence is now a Cat. 4. It may turn into a weak Cat. 5 before hitting the coast. Be careful everyone. If I remember correctly when Hurricane Agnes hit, it was a nightmare for those on the trail. So many high water rescues I lost count. (Central PA.) Our prayers are thoughts are with everyone in the path of this monster.