Hurricane Florence - Likely Impact on AT

[Corley]

The Virginia Department of Emergency Management (VDEM) is warning residents and visitors to prepare for Hurricane Florence. The current storm track has this category 3 hurricane hitting NC late Thursday evening. This slow moving storm is strengthening this morning so its likely to produce very high winds and torrential rains affecting most of the AT in VA. The most recent updates on this storm can be found at http://www.vaemergency.gov/

VDEM put the Shenandoah Mountain Rescue Group and other SAR units on standby last night.

[Venchka]

And the Carolinas. And Tennessee.
The mountains are already soggy.
New rain won’t be any fun.
Be safe Y’all!
Wayne

[Bird Dawg]

I started section hiking the AT in 2015. My first trip was supposed to go from Erwin, TN, to Damascus. That year, we hiked straight into the teeth of Tropical Storm / Hurricane Juaquin. I had to get off the Trail at Mountain Harbor Hostel because the chafing was so bad I could not continue. In 2016, my buddies and I continued north - from Damascus - and have hiked every year since. This year, I am all set to hike the missing section between Mountain Harbour and Damascus. Want to guess when? I'm leaving this Wednesday and will hit the Trail Thursday with a friend who's never been on the AT. I guess I'll just have to refer to the section between Erwin and Damascus as "Hurricane Alley". Wish us luck!

[DownYonder]

I started section hiking the AT in 2015. My first trip was supposed to go from Erwin, TN, to Damascus. That year, we hiked straight into the teeth of Tropical Storm / Hurricane Juaquin. I had to get off the Trail at Mountain Harbor Hostel because the chafing was so bad I could not continue. In 2016, my buddies and I continued north - from Damascus - and have hiked every year since. This year, I am all set to hike the missing section between Mountain Harbour and Damascus. Want to guess when? I'm leaving this Wednesday and will hit the Trail Thursday with a friend who's never been on the AT. I guess I'll just have to refer to the section between Erwin and Damascus as "Hurricane Alley". Wish us luck!

They are currently projecting as much as 12" of rain in that area. Having gone thru Hugo 20 miles away from Damascus, I can tell you that you might want to review your plans on Wednesday evening. It was just upgraded to CAT 4 and might be worse than Hugo. Good luck!!!!

[SawnieRobertson]

They are currently projecting as much as 12" of rain in that area. Having gone thru Hugo 20 miles away from Damascus, I can tell you that you might want to review your plans on Wednesday evening. It was just upgraded to CAT 4 and might be worse than Hugo. Good luck!!!!

Where did you learn that there may be 12" ahead for this area? Thanks.

[johnnybgood]

Where did you learn that there may be 12" ahead for this area? Thanks.

There are two climatological weather data models used to predict storm tracks for hurricanes. One is the European model and the other is the U.S. data model.
The Euro model has the track more westerly and "hanging up" in the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains spinning around like a washing machine.
More than 12" over 3-5 days is very possible. Even the U.S. which has it turning more north has the entire state picking up significant rainfall over the entire weather event.

[Berserker]

I'm leaving this Wednesday and will hit the Trail Thursday with a friend who's never been on the AT. I guess I'll just have to refer to the section between Erwin and Damascus as "Hurricane Alley". Wish us luck!

If I had plans to head out this weekend anywhere in NC or VA I'd be cancelling. Never know what's gonna happen till it happens, but the current predictions have this thing making landfall somewhere on the NC coast and then sitting over NC/VA for multiple days. That would be one sucky wet hike best case scenario. Worst case is that it's also windy and limbs and trees are coming down.

[Quik]

I'm hiking SOBO with a fairly weak signal off and on.

Has there been a landfall path(s) posted by the weather forecasters, any predictions of path after making landfall?

Any info posted here would be helpful for me and others currently hiking south. It's better to be in town and out of weather like this than hanging between two trees.

thanks

[Crushed Grapes]

I'm hiking SOBO with a fairly weak signal off and on.

Has there been a landfall path(s) posted by the weather forecasters, any predictions of path after making landfall?

Any info posted here would be helpful for me and others currently hiking south. It's better to be in town and out of weather like this than hanging between two trees.

thanks

This is from NOAA as of 11 am this morning
145000_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

[DownYonder]

I'm hiking SOBO with a fairly weak signal off and on.

Has there been a landfall path(s) posted by the weather forecasters, any predictions of path after making landfall?

Any info posted here would be helpful for me and others currently hiking south. It's better to be in town and out of weather like this than hanging between two trees.

thanks

Crushed Grapes post shows what most models predict.

[Crushed Grapes]

Crushed Grapes post shows what most models predict.

Crazy how well defined the cone is, if I remember correctly a few days ago it was all over the place

[SteelCut]

[QUOTE=Quik;2222538Has there been a landfall path(s) posted by the weather forecasters, any predictions of path after making landfall?thanks[/QUOTE]
The current forecast track is for landfall around south-eastern NC coast and then curving up through central NC and central/southwest VA. Landfall is projected late Thursday or early Friday with sustained tropical storm force wind strength winds (>40mph) out ahead of the storm that will impact the NC/VA AT sections as early as Thursday.

Of course, these predictions and tracks can change.

Good luck.

[gpburdelljr]

From the ATC:

http://www.appalachiantrail.org/home.../trail-updates

[Venchka]

Soggy earth. Dead trees from fires in recent memory.
More rain on soggy ground.
Dead trees falling.
Be safe Y’all!
Wayne

[Venchka]

Where did you learn that there may be 12" ahead for this area? Thanks.

Reason enough to keep a close watch on the storm. Stay home if there’s any possibility of flooding and wind and downed trees.
Watch the weather, wind & rainfall, in Asheville and Boone North Carolina. If it’s bad there it’s pretty much bad throughout the mountains.
Be safe!
Wayne

[Venchka]

Where did you learn that there may be 12" ahead for this area? Thanks.

Currently watching the Weather Channel. It’s all canned warnings and hyped computer model numbers right now. Gotta keep the ratings up. Too early to tell what will actually happen.
Suffice to say this year has been very wet already in the Carolinas and Virginia. More rain will not be pretty.
Hiking in the mountains this week and next would be interesting to say the least.
Wayne

[sketcher709]

Currently watching the Weather Channel. It’s all canned warnings and hyped computer model numbers right now. Gotta keep the ratings up. Too early to tell what will actually happen.
Suffice to say this year has been very wet already in the Carolinas and Virginia. More rain will not be pretty.
Hiking in the mountains this week and next would be interesting to say the least.
Wayne

Please don't do that. This is a serious storm and minimizing it by portraying it as hype for ratings could have very serious consequences for anyone who reads your post and moves on. It is pretty obvious these days how many people get their information from poor sources and can not seem to distinguish form good sources. Don;t be a poor source.

There are a multitude of models and they are in relatively strong agreement in that there is a potentially catastrophic rain event headed for the NC coast and even moreso the mid-state region. Whether it hit north NC or South NC is still to be determined. It is also still to be determined whether this system shoots to mod-state and dumps 12+ inches of rain on the mountains. The flooding will be pretty bad, let along toppling trees in soggy ground.

There is high potential for this to be a Very bad Time to be hiking in this area. Be smart, get off the trail and if it were me, I'd probably get off on the western side of the mountains if at all possible.

Consider yourself lucky to find a room as people are reporting no places to stay 6-7 hours out from the coast. Imagine if this storm hits and moves to the central part of NC to dump 20" or more rain as some models predict? So, add the potential logistics of getting a shuttle to an open room at the last minute. If it were me, I would be getting off the trail today or at the very least lining up my pre-paid reservation and transport.

[Quik]

This is interesting.
App State has a home game in Boone Saturday against Southern Mississippi. Good luck!
Wayne

I see you're adding to your post count

Please don't do that. This is a serious storm and minimizing it by portraying it as hype for ratings could have very serious consequences for anyone who reads your post and moves on. It is pretty obvious these days how many people get their information from poor sources and can not seem to distinguish form good sources. Don;t be a poor source.

There are a multitude of models and they are in relatively strong agreement in that there is a potentially catastrophic rain event headed for the NC coast and even moreso the mid-state region. Whether it hit north NC or South NC is still to be determined. It is also still to be determined whether this system shoots to mod-state and dumps 12+ inches of rain on the mountains. The flooding will be pretty bad, let along toppling trees in soggy ground.

There is high potential for this to be a Very bad Time to be hiking in this area. Be smart, get off the trail and if it were me, I'd probably get off on the western side of the mountains if at all possible.

Consider yourself lucky to find a room as people are reporting no places to stay 6-7 hours out from the coast. Imagine if this storm hits and moves to the central part of NC to dump 20" or more rain as some models predict? So, add the potential logistics of getting a shuttle to an open room at the last minute. If it were me, I would be getting off the trail today or at the very least lining up my pre-paid reservation and transport.

Sketcher, thanks, he likes seeing is post count go up by adding useless info

I'm in Salisbury CT now and have better internet access, I see the storm is aiming for the NC-VA coast, this is something I couldn't see yesterday. We won't know for a few days which way it will follow after landfall. I think my biggest concern is it taking a northern turn, can't control it but definitely don't want to hike into it. I'm leaving Salisbury after I eat lunch should be in Kent later tomorrow, will check the storm status then. Hope the SoBo's have access to safe accommodations as this storm makes its way inland. Stay safe out there.

[bbikebbs]

Maybe this site will be of some help:

https://www.atweather.org/

[DownYonder]

Maybe this site will be of some help:

https://www.atweather.org/

Thanks for posting this!! I had never seen it.