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  1. #1

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    Exclamation Hurricane Florence - Likely Impact on AT

    The Virginia Department of Emergency Management (VDEM) is warning residents and visitors to prepare for Hurricane Florence. The current storm track has this category 3 hurricane hitting NC late Thursday evening. This slow moving storm is strengthening this morning so its likely to produce very high winds and torrential rains affecting most of the AT in VA. The most recent updates on this storm can be found at http://www.vaemergency.gov/

    VDEM put the Shenandoah Mountain Rescue Group and other SAR units on standby last night.

  2. #2
    Registered User Venchka's Avatar
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    And the Carolinas. And Tennessee.
    The mountains are already soggy.
    New rain wonít be any fun.
    Be safe Yíall!
    Wayne

  3. #3
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    I started section hiking the AT in 2015. My first trip was supposed to go from Erwin, TN, to Damascus. That year, we hiked straight into the teeth of Tropical Storm / Hurricane Juaquin. I had to get off the Trail at Mountain Harbor Hostel because the chafing was so bad I could not continue. In 2016, my buddies and I continued north - from Damascus - and have hiked every year since. This year, I am all set to hike the missing section between Mountain Harbour and Damascus. Want to guess when? I'm leaving this Wednesday and will hit the Trail Thursday with a friend who's never been on the AT. I guess I'll just have to refer to the section between Erwin and Damascus as "Hurricane Alley". Wish us luck!

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bird Dawg View Post
    I started section hiking the AT in 2015. My first trip was supposed to go from Erwin, TN, to Damascus. That year, we hiked straight into the teeth of Tropical Storm / Hurricane Juaquin. I had to get off the Trail at Mountain Harbor Hostel because the chafing was so bad I could not continue. In 2016, my buddies and I continued north - from Damascus - and have hiked every year since. This year, I am all set to hike the missing section between Mountain Harbour and Damascus. Want to guess when? I'm leaving this Wednesday and will hit the Trail Thursday with a friend who's never been on the AT. I guess I'll just have to refer to the section between Erwin and Damascus as "Hurricane Alley". Wish us luck!
    They are currently projecting as much as 12" of rain in that area. Having gone thru Hugo 20 miles away from Damascus, I can tell you that you might want to review your plans on Wednesday evening. It was just upgraded to CAT 4 and might be worse than Hugo. Good luck!!!!
    .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ..........
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  5. #5

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    I'm hiking SOBO with a fairly weak signal off and on.

    Has there been a landfall path(s) posted by the weather forecasters, any predictions of path after making landfall?

    Any info posted here would be helpful for me and others currently hiking south. It's better to be in town and out of weather like this than hanging between two trees.

    thanks

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Quik View Post
    I'm hiking SOBO with a fairly weak signal off and on.

    Has there been a landfall path(s) posted by the weather forecasters, any predictions of path after making landfall?

    Any info posted here would be helpful for me and others currently hiking south. It's better to be in town and out of weather like this than hanging between two trees.

    thanks
    This is from NOAA as of 11 am this morning
    145000_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by Quik View Post
    I'm hiking SOBO with a fairly weak signal off and on.

    Has there been a landfall path(s) posted by the weather forecasters, any predictions of path after making landfall?

    Any info posted here would be helpful for me and others currently hiking south. It's better to be in town and out of weather like this than hanging between two trees.

    thanks
    Crushed Grapes post shows what most models predict.
    .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ..........
    Travel not for the destination, but for the joy of the journey.

  8. #8
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    [QUOTE=Quik;2222538Has there been a landfall path(s) posted by the weather forecasters, any predictions of path after making landfall?thanks[/QUOTE]
    The current forecast track is for landfall around south-eastern NC coast and then curving up through central NC and central/southwest VA. Landfall is projected late Thursday or early Friday with sustained tropical storm force wind strength winds (>40mph) out ahead of the storm that will impact the NC/VA AT sections as early as Thursday.

    Of course, these predictions and tracks can change.

    Good luck.
    Remote for detachment, narrow for chosen company, winding for leisure, lonely for contemplation, the Trail beckons not merely north and south, but upward to the body, mind, and soul of man.


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    Quote Originally Posted by DownYonder View Post
    Crushed Grapes post shows what most models predict.
    Crazy how well defined the cone is, if I remember correctly a few days ago it was all over the place

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    Quote Originally Posted by DownYonder View Post
    They are currently projecting as much as 12" of rain in that area. Having gone thru Hugo 20 miles away from Damascus, I can tell you that you might want to review your plans on Wednesday evening. It was just upgraded to CAT 4 and might be worse than Hugo. Good luck!!!!
    Where did you learn that there may be 12" ahead for this area? Thanks.
    You never know just what you can do until you realize you absolutely have to do it.
    --Salaun

  12. #12
    Registered User Venchka's Avatar
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    Soggy earth. Dead trees from fires in recent memory.
    More rain on soggy ground.
    Dead trees falling.
    Be safe Yíall!
    Wayne

  13. #13
    Registered User Venchka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SawnieRobertson View Post
    Where did you learn that there may be 12" ahead for this area? Thanks.
    Reason enough to keep a close watch on the storm. Stay home if thereís any possibility of flooding and wind and downed trees.
    Watch the weather, wind & rainfall, in Asheville and Boone North Carolina. If itís bad there itís pretty much bad throughout the mountains.
    Be safe!
    Wayne

  14. #14
    Registered User Venchka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SawnieRobertson View Post
    Where did you learn that there may be 12" ahead for this area? Thanks.
    Currently watching the Weather Channel. Itís all canned warnings and hyped computer model numbers right now. Gotta keep the ratings up. Too early to tell what will actually happen.
    Suffice to say this year has been very wet already in the Carolinas and Virginia. More rain will not be pretty.
    Hiking in the mountains this week and next would be interesting to say the least.
    Wayne

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by SawnieRobertson View Post
    Where did you learn that there may be 12" ahead for this area? Thanks.
    There are two climatological weather data models used to predict storm tracks for hurricanes. One is the European model and the other is the U.S. data model.
    The Euro model has the track more westerly and "hanging up" in the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains spinning around like a washing machine.
    More than 12" over 3-5 days is very possible. Even the U.S. which has it turning more north has the entire state picking up significant rainfall over the entire weather event.
    Getting lost is a way to find yourself.

  16. #16

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    Maybe this site will be of some help:

    https://www.atweather.org/

  17. #17

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    There are several models used to track these storms, called "Spaghetti models". These are updated every 6-hours (5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm). These models have a lot of tracks depending on the data set being used, many of them now showing a possible trend to the north, making landfall around Cape Haderas and into Southern VA. Some of the tracks are trending more west into the Raleigh area with outliers to Charlotte area.

    Making landfall predictions are very difficult and are rarely accurate until a day or two prior to landfall, so many things change from the water temperature to steering wind development.

    Spaghetti models for Florence.jpg

    There will be some changes in the forecast, but most everyone on the eastern coastal areas will get wet.

  18. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Crushed Grapes View Post
    This is from NOAA as of 11 am this morning
    145000_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
    Quote Originally Posted by SteelCut View Post
    The current forecast track is for landfall around south-eastern NC coast and then curving up through central NC and central/southwest VA. Landfall is projected late Thursday or early Friday with sustained tropical storm force wind strength winds (>40mph) out ahead of the storm that will impact the NC/VA AT sections as early as Thursday.

    Of course, these predictions and tracks can change.

    Good luck.
    Quote Originally Posted by Traveler View Post
    There are several models used to track these storms, called "Spaghetti models". These are updated every 6-hours (5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm). These models have a lot of tracks depending on the data set being used, many of them now showing a possible trend to the north, making landfall around Cape Haderas and into Southern VA. Some of the tracks are trending more west into the Raleigh area with outliers to Charlotte area.

    Making landfall predictions are very difficult and are rarely accurate until a day or two prior to landfall, so many things change from the water temperature to steering wind development.

    Spaghetti models for Florence.jpg

    There will be some changes in the forecast, but most everyone on the eastern coastal areas will get wet.
    Thanks everyone. I should be in Kent CT on Wed, have an overnight stay there reservation already made. Will have better internet access and weather updates, then decide what is best at that point, proceed or hold up. Heavy rain is one thing I can deal with, 12" is something entirely different then add in the wind to a saturated ground, no thanks. It's time for dinner and a good night sleep, back at it early in the morning.

  19. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by bbikebbs View Post
    Maybe this site will be of some help:

    https://www.atweather.org/
    Thanks for posting this!! I had never seen it.
    .................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ..........
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  20. #20

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    As of 6:30 P.M. (Monday.) Hurricane Florence is now a Cat. 4. It may turn into a weak Cat. 5 before hitting the coast. Be careful everyone. If I remember correctly when Hurricane Agnes hit, it was a nightmare for those on the trail. So many high water rescues I lost count. (Central PA.) Our prayers are thoughts are with everyone in the path of this monster.

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