AT from New York to Vermont in October

[Patrickjd9]

I'm planning for retirement followed by section hikes to complete the AT in 2019-20, and was wondering about planning a long section hike from the Hudson River to Manchester Center, VT (just shy of 250 miles) in October 2019. This is my longest remaining section to complete the trail, and I should have finished my remaining miles south of there before then. I have no desire to take on the White Mountains or Maine, where I also have trail to finish, that late in the year. I won't have a long stretch of time available any earlier.

My usual planning distance is 10-13 miles a day, though I might stick to the shorter side of that as dusk starts arriving earlier. The main issue would seem to be needing to make town overnights during the week so as not to compete with leaf peepers for rooms and restaurants.

I'm comfortable enough with cold mornings or light snow, as long as days are reasonably warm. The hike may be mostly solo, with friends joining me for parts of the trip.

Am I missing anything else in terms of weather, crowds, or water supply?

[Miner]

Maybe I'll see you out there as I planning on doing the next section of my SOBO hike, picking back up at North Adams,MA and hiking to somewhere in Pennsylvania. Starting around the October 6th.

My last section, from a few years ago, took me from Maine to Massachusetts where I got off in mid October.
My experience was being wet for part of almost every day since the Maine/NH border, except for going over Mt Washington ironically. I was told this wasn't normal.

I'll talk about Vermont which is the only part of your hike I've covered in the same timeframe:
The leaves in Vermont were colorful during my time through there in the first half of October, though the colors weren't as vivid as normal and the leaves were being stripped off soon after changing due to the weather.
The leaves on the ground covered water pooled on the trail which was not a good surprise that happened often. I also slid on wet leaves. The trail was completely covered by them which made me think that hiking at night to make up time due to the shortening days would be difficult to not get off trail.
Hotels are full of leaf peepers, so I recommend calling ahead to reserve an overpriced hotel. You probably should try to limit your stays in town to be just during the day and sleeping on the trail as much as possible.
Nights fell to around freezing with a breeze coming up through the shelter floors. It made me think that sleeping on the ground would be warmer if it wasn't so damp. The days were normally in the mid to high 50's. But I was often covered by clouds. It might have gotten into the 60's without them. I did see light snow twice. One was more of a dusting and the other dropped a few inches starting as I packed up in the morning, but was well on its way to melting off by afternoon.
There weren't a lot of people hiking, but the weather might have been part of the reason.

[Patrickjd9]

Maybe I'll see you out there as I planning on doing the next section of my SOBO hike, picking back up at North Adams,MA and hiking to somewhere in Pennsylvania. Starting around the October 6th.
The leaves in Vermont were colorful during my time through there in the first half of October, though the colors weren't as vivid as normal and the leaves were being stripped off soon after changing due to the weather.
The leaves on the ground covered water pooled on the trail which was not a good surprise that happened often. I also slid on wet leaves. The trail was completely covered by them which made me think that hiking at night to make up time due to the shortening days would be difficult to not get off trail.

Footing in Vermont was tough enough with the mud a couple of weeks ago. I can see where leaves would add an extra issue. Maybe going north to south would help a little.
May just see you as I have a Pennsylvania trip (north from Port Clinton) scheduled for October.

[Slo-go'en]

Come October, sunset starts to get real early in these parts, so the 10 miles a day is a good guess. But since your required to use designated sites through NY/NJ/CT/MA, shelter spacing dictates your actual mileage, but it can be in the 10 MPD ballpark. Weather is a big factor, get a wet spell and that can slow you down.

I suspect we'll have another long and warm fall this year, but the weather does get iffy towards the end of October in Vermont. Cold fronts hit there first and often in a blink of the eye. Hard to say if NOBO or SOBO would be better, but I'd lean towards SOBO to minimize risks and get the "hard" stuff out of the way first.

[Traveler]

The NY - VT corridor is lovely and October is a great time of year for walking it. Weather swings at that time of year can be well outside of average ranges and those ranges change as you move north from the Hudson River to Manchester VT.

I would expect an average temperature range of 60 degrees during the day, 38 degrees at night (NY and southern CT may be a little warmer at first) with cloud cover approximately 50% of the days you will be out and precipitation approximately 30% under that cloud cover as a general rule. Use a temperature lapse rate of about 3.5 degrees per 1,000-foot elevation to extrapolate forecasted temperatures to mountains. All that to say, 70% of the time you should have enjoyable weather for hiking unless/until fragments of a hurricane decide to come ashore, in which case all bets are off.

Water sources should be fairly reliable, September has a higher precipitation rate than October so most springs and streams should be working. There are a number of small lakes, ponds, and marshes along the way if streams are dry. DO NOT drink water from the Housatonic or Ten Mile river due to long standing pollution issues, I believe most of the camping areas along that river corridor have wells you can pump water from, outside of this corridor most camping areas have nearby access to water that should be dependable. This really depends on precipitation rates prior to your hike which will change how you source and carry water.

Crowds should not be much of an issue. If its a nice weekend day, you will probably find day hikers going to/from features near trailheads and maybe a troop of scouts doing some backpacking but nothing out of the ordinary in that regard. You will likely have shelters and the designated camping areas around them to yourself for the most part.

Midrange to Peak fall color should be between the first and third weeks of October in central VT, so as you enjoy the scenery keep an eye on the treadway. Fallen leaves on rock and root can be really slick when wet, especially oak leaves. Add some acorns under the leaves and you have some footing problems. A minor issue overall, but can catch one by surprise in a moment of inattention.

Flying insects should be long gone by October most everywhere, though ticks will be active and proper precautions should be taken for those.

A great time of year for this particular walk, good luck!

[Gambit McCrae]

Last year I did 237 between Salisbury, CT and Palmerton, PA from October 1st to the 16th. Weather was perfect, 1 day of rain. It got up to mid to high 70s during day and most nights were around 55 to 60. After 1 week of carrying and not using any of our insulation we mailed it all home seeing that the forecast was to be consistent with week 1 and that worked out well. This year I plan on doing another 16 days starting end of the month which will finish Mass and Vermont for me, but I am starting that trip a month earlier then I did last year.

[Patrickjd9]

Midrange to Peak fall color should be between the first and third weeks of October in central VT, so as you enjoy the scenery keep an eye on the treadway. Fallen leaves on rock and root can be really slick when wet, especially oak leaves. Add some acorns under the leaves and you have some footing problems. A minor issue overall, but can catch one by surprise in a moment of inattention.
A great time of year for this particular walk, good luck!

Seems like I thought of most things. My mind is kind of fixed on seasons in Maryland and Virginia, where most of the leaves stay on the trees deep into October. I didn't think about many already being on the ground, but agree that it is a manageable issue.
Thanks all!

[Miner]

Here are my photos from the AT in Vermont from October 4-13 in 2012: https://photos.app.goo.gl/GkOqsag67XJ96u7n2

Should give you an idea of what it might be like. Hopefully there will have been more rain the summer prior to the fall next year so the colors are more vivid than what I saw. Because I was hiking SOBO, the elevation average was dropping, so as I hiked, there were more leaves still on the trees compared to what was likely the case behind me up higher. So it's more than just snow issues going NOBO at that time of the year. Though as I previously said, the weather was likely stripping the trees earlier than what might have been the case in another year.

[Patrickjd9]

Here are my photos from the AT in Vermont from October 4-13 in 2012: https://photos.app.goo.gl/GkOqsag67XJ96u7n2
Should give you an idea of what it might be like.

Thanks! Seeing the pictures of early October there was helpful. Except for the ball bearings on the trail, it should work well!