Karel Sabbe supported attempt

[chknfngrs]

Side comment about sleep: what’s this dude doing for sleep? I know he was in a hotel recently but what do he and his crewdogs do?! Photos on instrgam show a car with a roof top box, do they have tents they deploy or do they sleep in and around the car? Meltzer and Jurek had vans. Does Saabe?

[LittleRock]

Based on current rate of progress my guess is he's shooting for Harper's Ferry by Sunday night. That would be a little over 1000 miles covered in 19 days - pretty darn impressive!!!

[Just Bill]

Not even half time yet

What's on queue for half time show??

Was working on one of yours and one of mine....

Maybe 2+2=5 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6GO7c-zO6E

Or the globally minded Wanderlust- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJRiBDMfrTU

Or to cut things down maybe a bit of Thom; bjork combined-
Though 'I've seen it all' would be a poor choice, and while Nattura is more appropriate few of us speak Icelandic and Thom lends his voice as the wind- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0ORpf3fILw

Since Warren has gotten involved maybe an old fella singing well about the pain of this type of journey could participate- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt1Pwfnh5pc

Given Karel is from Belgium, their beers and hiking is addicting, and I only know one band from Belgium- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JT2SsWOCoEw
So I did book them for the opening act in exchange for some beer.


But since this is a competition mainly involving punching down personal demons to become the current G.O.A.T (Greatest Overall Appalachian Trail)...

I booked james to sing as the main act with the help of sponsorship money from Guinness and a generous donation from Secret Men's Unscented Antiperspirant.
Unplugged of course; but with plenty of support from the band and the crowd.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Side comment about sleep: what’s this dude doing for sleep? I know he was in a hotel recently but what do he and his crewdogs do?! Photos on instrgam show a car with a roof top box, do they have tents they deploy or do they sleep in and around the car? Meltzer and Jurek had vans. Does Saabe?

I really only spent about 10-15 minutes around the only support guy I saw, and I didn't ask. I spent about half the run trying to catch Karel, and he didn't seem too chatty while I was around. I figured maybe he wanted to concentrate on the trail in the dark so other than some intro chatting I just gave him some tips to make sure he stayed on the main trail around Humpback and at the I-64 crossing at Rockfish Gap.

Anyway, AFAIK they just have the SUV, and from a quick look inside it didn't look in any way set up to have room for sleeping. Last night they rented a place at Wintergreen (too bad, had I known I would've offered my house, but by the time I found out it was too late to cancel) and I read that they stayed at Angels Rest(?) hostel a couple days ago. They said the hot showers last night was really nice so I don't think they do anything like that often. It looks like they may have stayed in a shelter the night before based on the tracker, though that may have just been a signal issue. So maybe a lot of places under a roof, and I suspect they pitch tents other days. They don't seem to have an issue with staking out and driving away from trail. It helps that he can get the miles he wants and still end early. Jurek's wife said Scott liked to stay in the van at the trail head whenever possible to not lose time that could be spent running, eating or sleeping. Probably the same with Meltzer.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Did he win yet?

Just curious, is there an issue with talking about Karel's run in a thread about Karel's run in a sub-forum about speed records?

[Just Bill]

Just curious, is there an issue with talking about Karel's run in a thread about Karel's run in a sub-forum about speed records?

Irony.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Irony.

I guess I haven't been around long enough so I don't get it. Just checking to see if it's a passive aggressive way of saying there's too many posts about it, or we're getting ahead of ourselves.

I don't think anyone is saying he's got it wrapped up. But I will say, unless something pretty major happens, IMO he is going to lower the record by days, not hours. Or at least he won't be in a sleep deprived push at the end to get the record. I base this on first hand observation of how healthy and strong he looks, his disposition, how much he was actually running, how well he climbs, how well he handles rocky terrain, how he's eating while on the move, and that he's hitting this mileage without having to do 17-18 hour days, so he doesn't seem to be building up a sleep deficit. From what I saw his crew seems to be on the ball. Admittedly this was just 2 sightings for 3 hours total in a 12 hour window but Black Chucks reports a lot of the same, and so did a friend of mine that saw him later today. I know Stringbean finished strong, but he also had back to back sub 30 mile days in the 2nd to last week.

[chknfngrs]

Stringbean carried everything. Major difference to note.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Stringbean carried everything. Major difference to note.

Of course. If Karel continues at this pace, Stringbean will still have the unsupported record, with great respect. Just like Matt had before him, only a little more because it is faster than all of the other supported treks. I lead hikes for the local nature foundation sometimes, and they like us to have a "theme" for the hike. Sometimes I take them out on the AT and talk about the trail, thru hikers, history, etc. I always mention the speed records, both supported and unsupported, male and female.

[Just Bill]

Yar... the main inside joke if you want to call it that;
This year... and maybe later in the season last year... would mark the first time we haven't wasted 60% of the thread simply describing what an FKT is to other hikers, and 30% of the thread fighting with other hikers who wanted to complain about the hikes despite this sub-forum of the site being dedicated to those of us who wish to discuss the very topic at hand.

Certainly won't take credit, but I do try to kindly chase such folks away.

However this does leave us with quite a bit of time on our hands and nothing to do as we enter the placid stage of the hike.

Everything should be on cruise control. It's the smooth section of the trail and baring a crash this is the boring part of the race where we just watch and wait for things to get interesting.

Here are two oldies, but I still think goodies...
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Apygyt54yYPwmil5J60YNvO1I5YF
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Apygyt54yYPwoAnog06wd_N37rWc

The first is a calculator I made based upon the numbers map man was kind enough to patiently crunch.
The second is an old (2014) graph but it still does show you the part you aren't getting if you'd like to have one to not get.

The calculator shows all kinds of stuff- but to keep it simple: The slowest part of the trail (whites) is the baseline. On average the part of the trail that Karel is really tearing it up is 164% faster/easier.

Joe- at roughly 48MPD divided by 1.64 would be 29.26 in the whites... so slightly below what the calculator predicted.
Karel- at let's call it 52MPD here in speedy town would be 31.7MPD if all goes perfectly well.

What the graph shows is a visual representation of the difficulty of the trail, along with several hikes overlaid on it from the past. You will see that Joe's "back to back 20's" are quite in keeping with where every hiker ever bottoms out.

What Karel has done well for a NOBO... is to do well on the first stretch to NOC.
If you look at Odd Man Out's post you will see that Karel jumped to a whopping 20 mile lead (roughly) right out of the gate.
Which makes sense as its a very good section strategically and historically to do well.

Other than that... simple steadiness and not having to resupply has expanded his lead.
While it's never been very well spelled out by Stringbean... not impossible to piece together his hike though I'd rather hear it from him.

But one can easily see his up and down swings of miles once he cleared hot springs in a basic pattern.
Something like x, x+2, x+3, x+5 then crashing back to x.

A runner might read that as pushes followed by fatigue. As inconsistency.
A backpacker reads that as a heavy pack (and belly) out of a resupply with a steady increase in speed as packweight drops before hitting town again.

That's not even giving much time to resupply but if you were to simply tell Karel that every three and a half days he must limit himself to a 12 hour day, you'd likely see a few dips in his ticking miles.

If one looked carefully you might even note a few spots where Stringbean faced a full pack and a rougher than average section of trail... where he would likely do worse than if he hit that same spot with a few gels and 12 ounces of water in his vest.

Yar... still some holes to exploit in Stringbean's spreadsheet.
But on the flipside he is from Boston and by most accounts didn't stroll lightly into the whites.

Jen did okay, but in pushing though the weather she got hit with a bout of hypothermia that followed her for a few hundred miles beyond that day. She might yet hold the overall if not for that... skinny ass ultra folks just ain't built fer that stuff

Karel may not do as well as Joe... going from carrying little with a well oiled crew into a stretch of hills where meetups are few and further and safety gear and provisions carried increase. To an extent the self-supported hiker has a minor advantage in that they are used to carrying stuff. It's easy to make light of... but having watched a few SUL speed folks I know agonize over a single pound to maintain pace... might be just enough to grind the gears on this well oiled machine.

All good reasons why comparing Stringbean and Karel can be futile... but Stringbean selected his method of choice and so did Karel. No issue there- just makes a head to head analysis a bit more complex overall.

What I see-
The good jump off Joe might have gotten... but Joe started well enough.
Karel hit the shennies- running well, good crew, off trail in 12-14 hours and still steady in the low fifties.
All very good signs for sure and reasons to stay hopeful.
Weather has seemed to be good, if not exceptional.
His good luck piggy bank seems exceptionally full as well... but that's not any animosity just simply that everyone has something go wrong so odds are decent they will for him too.

But like I says... other than a massive wreck this is just watching the cars circle round the track for a few hundred miles or more for a bit. Until he hit's Maine junction we are just waiting for the real race to start.

But it's a good time fer all of us to goof around, get to say hi, and generally stand around the FKT water cooler.

[black chucks]

...Anyway, AFAIK they just have the SUV, and from a quick look inside it didn't look in any way set up to have room for sleeping...

Yep, no van, just a car.

Karel has his driver/physiotherapist back from his PCT run two years ago. They worked out the crewing and trail sleeping over 52 days on that trail, so this is old stuff for them.

The other crew person for this section runs 25 or more miles each day with Karel for company. He said he was very surprised how much uphill running is happening. The driver calculates trail speed to be 6km/hour (3.7 mph or about 16:15 minutes a mile) and Karel has arrived early and surprised him sometimes.

Meltzer, on the AT, said he was happy anytime his mile was under twenty minutes and I think his average was about 18:45. Karel and his crew are making this look easy so far. 28 days to go.

[Just Bill]

Of course. If Karel continues at this pace, Stringbean will still have the unsupported record, with great respect. Just like Matt had before him, only a little more because it is faster than all of the other supported treks. I lead hikes for the local nature foundation sometimes, and they like us to have a "theme" for the hike. Sometimes I take them out on the AT and talk about the trail, thru hikers, history, etc. I always mention the speed records, both supported and unsupported, male and female.

One last inside joke...
We like it when Team Backpacker beats Team Runner...

even though we are all on the same team.

One last insight joke...
Ward Leonard's hike was a myth, an Urban legend that sat for over two decades.
Going self supported under 60 days, imagining and proving it could be done... was pioneering.

Heather's hike was an attention getter, and Joey Camps is pretty special all around.

Stringbean will likely stay king of the trail fer some time fer many here regardless of what happens with Karel... much like there was something special about Jennifer Davis's effort despite excellent efforts by the gentleman that followed.

Unfortunately we are mainly bumping the bar an inch or two at a time to see who can clear it next... no less impressive... just harder to really stand out or get super fired up for.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Points taken on both posts.

One last inside joke...
We like it when Team Backpacker beats Team Runner...

even though we are all on the same team.

I get that. I guess that's why I'd like to see a runner take it back, myself being a runner. It's a little embarrassing (for lack of a better word) to have your best trail runners (maybe a little long in the tooth, but not that much off their prime) go out there and get beaten by someone without support. If Karel edges him it doesn't change much, but at least a runner will be back on top overall.

Unfortunately we are mainly bumping the bar an inch or two at a time to see who can clear it next... no less impressive... just harder to really stand out or get super fired up for.

Maybe it'll get bumped a little more this time. On the Harvey Lewis thread there was some discussion that it would probably take a hybrid approach to significantly reduce the time. Karel really isn't doing anything different than what Meltzer and Jurek did, but so far he is well ahead. Maybe he's just had pretty ideal circumstances so far and that won't continue, or maybe he's just doing it better. That's one thing I find interesting here, that maybe it doesn't take a much different approach.

One interesting thing he told me yesterday is that he didn't follow Harvey's run because he had a plan, and didn't want to alter it at the last minute based on factors that may or may not apply to him. We did not discuss anything about what the plan actually is and how/if it might differ from others.

[illabelle]

What's the latest with the flooding in Pennsylvania? Seems like he'll be there early next week. All clear now?

[brew]

I don't know, y'all. I haven't followed as closely for Karel's attempt as for Harvey's. The tracker's not as "user friendly" and there's not as much fun stuff on Facebook, although I do like the cartoons. But the dude seems to be absolutely crushing it. In the words of the great Cal Naughton, Jr. "Frenchy can drive." I know he's Belgian, but whatever. He's from across the pond and he's hiking like a mofo.

Warren (Doyle) called me a week or two ago and had camped out (as he's known to do) at Sam's Gap for when Karel and crew were coming through. Warren really liked them. Said they were humble and friendly. He also brought up that when Jen did the women's record in 2008 and hiked "only" 38 miles a day, David Horton who was helping Warren and me crew Jen toward the end said "You're not hurting enough. You're making it look too easy." Warren said that's pretty much what Karel looked like to him. Which is freaking ridiculous to think about with him averaging 53 mpd or whatever he's been doing.

I think Karl (not Karel, which I've gotten a kick out of since Karl did the #WheresKarl thing and now we've just added an "e") said a few years ago somebody could get it in the 44s and it's definitely looking that way.

I haven't been following the weather too closely up north- flooding, heat waves, etc. But usually people have an injury by now (and the low that comes with it) and Karel's blown through that. Unless something freaky happens weather wise or he has a severe, non-overuse injury (broken ankle or something), he's looking really really good. Good on ya, Karel (and crew)! Keep it up.

[chknfngrs]

Yep I think his crew is doing just as much to make Karel with An E’s run look so effortless.

[black chucks]

...they were humble and friendly... ...You're making it look too easy... ...Good on ya, Karel (and crew)! Keep it up.

Amen to that.

They are modest. Karel was telling me about being on the PCT and he wasn't going to mention that he finished it in record time. When I told "Jo" the driver I appreciated how hard his job is, he said it seems easy to him. And Kristian the current "pacer" (actually he runs behind KS on trail) who had never run with KS before his first AT morning, said he got used to the job easily.

Humble and friendly and making it look easy.

Example: At the Tye River trailhead at 1:40pm Thursday, after a long morning with some big climbing earlier and long downpours (hungry, feet soaking wet and puddles everywhere), the crew car wasn't there yet and no cell signal. In front of him was 10.6 miles over the Three Ridges- a pretty big climb. I shared some food which he appreciated. But it didn't affect morale at all. Karel said if I hadn't been there he would have left a note for the crew and gone on, no worries, its all good, feeling fine, big smile.

27 days to go!

[Odd Man Out]

I've added a column to my spreadsheet to calculate Karel's lead over Stringbean. The spreadsheet has distance measurements for 1792 segments of the trail. For each of those, it calculates the time it took Stringbean to hike. For example, From Justus Mtn to Justus Creek it is 1.4 miles. Stringbean hiked this on a day he covered 42.6 miles. That means that segment took him 0.033 days to cover. Then at the end of each day, the spreadsheet adds up the time it took Stringbean to get from where he was at the end of that day to where Karel was at the end of that same day. Assuming Karel ended Day 17 at Hightop Gap, by this formula he is 1.68 days ahead of Stringbean and has matched or exceeded Stringbeans pace on all but one day.

Capture.JPG

[chknfngrs]

Love the analysis that’s cool!

[Violent Green]

Go Karel! Looking good so far. Hoping for good health and weather.