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  1. #201

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    No. 1.04 days on day 28 is the amount he covered on that day compared to Stringbean's 28th day (as I understand it). The chart below explains the cumulative difference in their performances. At present, it's a bit over 2 days of separation.

  2. #202
    Ounces are the little-death
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    No.
    "Each section of the trail is measured in how many days it took Stringbean to cover that section (miles per section divided by miles/day Sringbean hiked on the day he covered that section)."



    Quote Originally Posted by pbakwin View Post
    We put a special page on FastestKnownTime.com to bring together info and track his progress in the back stretch of this thing.
    Thank you so much for explaining the terminology at the top!

  3. #203

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    Add the numbers and subtract 28 (the # of days so far) = Karel is 2.04 days ahead. He covers 6.7% more miles than SB each day. If he continues like that he'll finish in 42.6 days (45.5 / 1.067) !

    Is Deerfoot his real trail name? I was thinking QUADrapel would be good for the Belgian! (eh, Bill?)

  4. #204
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    Fresh perspective and nicely done Odd Man Out.

    Deerfoot... close to the Jurker's non hiker trail name.

    Well... the not quite always truthfully polite writer in me finds 'Guinness' to be an appropriately poetic choice.

    We could let the Belgian set the bar based upon how much he lowers the mark... Dubbel, Tripel, or Quadrupel.

    If'n I'm feeling a bit more stylistically accurate:A Belgian Strong seems most accurate.

    While he may not have picked up enough sunshine yet to be a true blonde; Duvel may be a good option being about an hour or so from his home and his golden yellow shirt.
    Along with bucking a bit of tradition and creating a slightly new style in the 'golden strong', expert craftsmanship, quick, light, smooth, lively and above all: consistent.


    Though a good solid Belgian Strong Dark seems the best pairing. Chimay Bleue is not too distant either and while Matt Kirk may the 'The Grand' this beer is the Grande Reserve.
    And in this case, I will bow to Chimay's description as it seems to fit quite accurately given Peter's observations yesterday on breaking down or getting stonger:
    "The Chimay Grande Réserve is a dark ale with a powerful aroma. Its complex flavor improves with passing time."

    Though he may wish to go with the more general 'Grand Cru' as the name applies only to the best... and his crew has been amazing.

    If the bastard figures out how to pull out a 40- St. Bernardus Abt 12 is the only viable option.

  5. #205
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    On a more relevant note:
    The news in the midwest mentioned a pretty ripping storm racing right on up the strip of trail from Bear mountain clear up to Killington.
    Hate to use the term fake news... but seems every weather event is covered as a horrific disaster if they can score some film of a flooded ditch or swollen creek.

    So what's the word on the ground- Did the trail get wholloped or just enough clogged sewers in the lowlands to make a headline out of?

  6. #206

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    My head is spinning from your facility for beer-related trail names! Don't know about local weather, but looks like he'll get his usual 50+ today.

    Forgive me while I do my scientist thing: You can see on OMO's graph that the curve is leveling out slightly. It took him 11 days to get 1 day ahead, then another 16 days to extend that to 2 days. Maybe SB got stronger relative to KS, or maybe KS is resting on his laurels after banking a significant cushion? Either way, if the trend continues he won't finish 3 days ahead.

  7. #207

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    This is basically the section that Stringbean did 60 miles in, isn't it? I see 57 tops today (Main Rd), and he'd be going til at least 8pm to get that far. 3 other smaller road crossings before then, around 51, 53, 55 miles, more or less.

  8. #208
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    Quote Originally Posted by CalebJ View Post
    No. 1.04 days on day 28 is the amount he covered on that day compared to Stringbean's 28th day (as I understand it). The chart below explains the cumulative difference in their performances. At present, it's a bit over 2 days of separation.
    Close. What is means is that on day 28 Karel covered a section of trail that Stringbean took 1.04 days to cover on the day Stringbean covered it (which wasn't necessarily day 28). When Karel got a bit of a lead over SB, I realized that my original algorithm for comparing the hikers had a flaw. Suppose on day X of their respective hikes, Karel hiked 52 miles vs SB who hiked 48. It would seem that Karel built a 4 mile lead that day. But if Karel had a day lead over SB, he may have been hiking a section that was relatively easy on day X whereas SB (a day behind) may have been hiking a more difficult section on day X. So it was more consistent to compare what Karl did on day X to what SB did on day X+1. But since the lead isn't a whole day, the number crunching I did was to calculate the time SB took on each section of the trail and use this as a benchmark.

  9. #209

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    Quote Originally Posted by Odd Man Out View Post
    Close. What is means is that on day 28 Karel covered a section of trail that Stringbean took 1.04 days to cover on the day Stringbean covered it (which wasn't necessarily day 28). When Karel got a bit of a lead over SB, I realized that my original algorithm for comparing the hikers had a flaw. Suppose on day X of their respective hikes, Karel hiked 52 miles vs SB who hiked 48. It would seem that Karel built a 4 mile lead that day. But if Karel had a day lead over SB, he may have been hiking a section that was relatively easy on day X whereas SB (a day behind) may have been hiking a more difficult section on day X. So it was more consistent to compare what Karl did on day X to what SB did on day X+1. But since the lead isn't a whole day, the number crunching I did was to calculate the time SB took on each section of the trail and use this as a benchmark.
    I re-read that later and caught the mistake. Your version makes are a lot more sense for comparing one hike to another.

  10. #210

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    Regarding Deerfoot, that’s the name being used on his Facebook page. I suppose it could be one of his crew.

  11. #211
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    Dumped this into a single sheet. Being a non scientific carpenter... not my area of expertise but excel graphs fancy enough to do the job I think.
    I'd guess one of you could do something more dynamic with the data but from past discussion on the subject I personally find this more useful.

    For the new kids:
    Map Man published an article here digesting a few hundred hikes to give us some data. https://whiteblaze.net/forum/content...ion-by-Section
    I believe that's the latest one.
    It's been a handy guide overall for hikers.

    Backaways I used his info to blend together a calculator for regular hikers, and then realized I could adopt it for Speed hikers. As mentioned before- It isn't gospel but it does a decent job showing the 'natural speed limit' of the AT.

    Because of Map Man's innovative approach to breaking down the trail by sections that make more sense... it also allows us to look at hikes relative to each other in either direction without getting too bogged down in stretching time or distance relative to each hike.

    To build the chart; I just convert the daily splits into close enough whole days that match up with Map Man's section breaks. Then an average MPD is calculated to represent that section.
    The graph just visually displays the chart.
    This may not get me in the good graces of any statisticians... but it does help everyone see the trail in a slightly different way and compare efforts on a section by section basis.

    Attached-
    The chart
    All hikes graphed- including the average NOBO, average SOBO, and the curve I use for speed hike calculations.
    Just the speedy hikes graphed- for a bit better view I cut out anything below 27 MPD

    Generally- most FKT hikes do better on the Springer to Fontana section- but that makes sense given most FKT's blast off or finish strong compared to an average hiker.

    For the most part things line up... where they don't there is usually a decent reason.
    One notable exception is Matt Kirk's first section

    AT speed hikes-Data.pdfSOBO (Katahdin to Stratton) where Matt dealt with huge rains and flooded stream crossings.

    I put dashed lines in for hikes based upon my calculator- a 45 day goal and a 40 day goal.
    I put Knotts hike in with a dashed line as you will note it has some notable exceptions visually and statistically (like two 70 Mile days and a busted split sheet overall).

    I put Karel in as a bold line. For the moment- I slapped in two 52 days for 28/29 just to complete one more section.
    FWIW... he's matching decently with the 45 day line in my opinion.
    JPD (other than a very FKT like start and finish) matches up pretty well with this general curve.
    Karl was more up and down due to injury and recovery... and despite the drama Scott ended up doing very well up north. He lagged in the south due to the quad injury.
    AT speed hikes- all.pdf
    AT speed hikes- Speedy.pdf

    For anyone who'd like them- here is a link to the folder with these- including the Excel Sheet used.
    https://1drv.ms/f/s!Apygyt54yYPwg8FKha_-igCzAY-8qw
    Last edited by Just Bill; 08-16-2018 at 15:40.

  12. #212
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    Quote Originally Posted by TrailRunnerGuy View Post
    This is basically the section that Stringbean did 60 miles in, isn't it? I see 57 tops today (Main Rd), and he'd be going til at least 8pm to get that far. 3 other smaller road crossings before then, around 51, 53, 55 miles, more or less.
    Yes, SB did a 59 mile day going into Tyringham MA, which is where Karel started this morning. This is a good example of where different ways of crunching the numbers give slightly different results. Yesterday, Karel's lead (in miles) over SB increased from 106.1 to 111.0 miles, but his lead (in days) decreased from 2.04 to 2.00. This is because yesterday, Karel covered on his day 29 the section that SB covered on his day 31. Karel's 56.8 miles yesterday padded his lead in miles (vs SB's 51.9 on day 29), but he lost a little in time because he "should" have covered 59 miles yesterday. The difference in this part of the trail is small and it obviously evens out in the end. But in a few days when Karel gets to the Whites, the difference will be more pronounced. Suppose from this point out where Karel had exactly a 2 day lead he just matched SB's performance. His lead would always be exactly 2 days. However his mileage lead would drop in half and then recover, reflecting the different times the two were covering the difficult sections in NH and ME. However that loss of lead would not be real and would be an artifact of the way the numbers are crunched. Here is what it would look like if Karel matched SB exactly for the rest of the hike to break the record by two days.

    Day Lead in Miles Lead in Days
    29.00 111.0 2.0
    30.00 108.2 2.0
    31.00 100.0 2.0
    32.00 101.0 2.0
    33.00 105.2 2.0
    34.00 100.7 2.0
    35.00 74.1 2.0
    36.00 53.0 2.0
    37.00 58.2 2.0
    38.00 70.5 2.0
    39.00 79.6 2.0
    40.00 79.9 2.0
    41.00 81.2 2.0
    42.00 84.8 2.0
    43.00 98.4 2.0
    43.51 110.7 2.0

  13. #213
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    And for the record, I'm partial to Duvel.

  14. #214
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    Quote Originally Posted by Odd Man Out View Post
    And for the record, I'm partial to Duvel.
    Had one from Peter's town- https://www.averybrewing.com/beers/the-reverend

    Had a Stella Artois on hand as well.

    Yesterday's discussion made me thirsty and that's what I had in the fridge.

    Duvell, Gulden Drakk are bout a coinflip fer me...

    Probably going to end up in that section next resupply.

  15. #215

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    Duvel is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy

  16. #216

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    Clockwork Orange Belgian Wit made by Grand Rapids Brewing Company ... "Clockwork Orange" might be a good trailname for Karel since so far he's been in early like "clockwork"

  17. #217

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    Orange however may be too close to Netherlands and not Belgium. .

  18. #218

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    looking like some rain and mud today for Karel in Vermont

  19. #219
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    With day 28 posted- I popped a number into the calculator that matched his actual times well enough.
    Calculator and the mark I pulled from me bum line up about right.

    Karel- Day 28.pdf

  20. #220

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    Looking at the route for today, it seems like he either has to do about 58.5 miles to VT Hwy 11, or camp in a shelter? Looks like a wet, muddy day for him in any case.

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