2 days since any update here
https://tinyurl.com/MyFDresults
A vigorous five-mile walk will do more good for an unhappy but otherwise healthy adult than all the medicine and psychology in the world. ~Paul Dudley White
Karel's in NY. Still rocking. Tracker's working better: https://karelsabbeat.legendstracking.com/Originally Posted by PennyPincher
Not much of a nail-biter. If it's quiet, some fans may already be exiting the stadium to beat the traffic.
Just Bill didn't even stick around for his whole half time show...
We're just waiting to see what happens when he gets to NH and ME.
Follow slogoen on Instagram.
Karel has quite a cushion - about 103 miles after 26 days. We put a special page on FastestKnownTime.com to bring together info and track his progress in the back stretch of this thing. I took the liberty of using some excellent quotes from you all to lend some color to the material! LMK if you're not OK with that.
Just over 800 miles to go! He puts in 50+ miles virtually every day. 40 days???!!!
I think you are referring to his Instagram account, and not what Captain Kirk provided, the ever so important tracking.
Got the new stadium wrapped up last week and kicked off the opening games this weekend. Got a few quilts out, three prototypes I was itching to try, and started a batch of bridges.Karel's in NY. Still rocking. Tracker's working better: https://karelsabbeat.legendstracking.com/
Not much of a nail-biter. If it's quiet, some fans may already be exiting the stadium to beat the traffic.
Just Bill didn't even stick around for his whole half time show...
New Sewing Shop
On a side note- as Karel approaches... the first commercial bridge hammock released on the market was from Jack's R Better and named for the Bear Mountain Bridge.
http://www.jacksrbetter.com/shop/bea...ridge-hammock/
Special page (and the new site as a whole) looking good... but yar it's a nice time to hit the head and grab beers before the final quarter.
Few days yet until Vermont border and a day or so beyond that to Maine Junction (Killington).
Of minor interest and historical perspective: Hitting the Bear Mountain Bridge area.
Stringbean was 18-24 hours behind Jurek's record at this spot... just to get an idea of how quickly he was moving.
Jurek ran out of gas the last day or two... but while dramatic at the time he still covered the miles overall pretty well on the north end.
And for those of us who know the section southbound... Joey Camps blew his quad out just north of Pawling.
He ordered some trekking poles and picked them up at the landscaping store.
Then he did the down to the bridge and the up into Harriman...can't imagine doing that particular stretch the day after tearing my quad.
Karel's fast start probably covers 30 miles and problem free consistency built from there.
Fully agree it's looking good but Joe was FAST up north.
I think the easiest way to think of it is to compare it to the Long Trail- twice.
Looking at that handy dandy website- https://fastestknowntime.com/route/long-trail-vt
Basham ripped though at 60 MPD fully supported... a time that's held nearly a decade now.
(Also worth noting this fella ripped off a Colorado Trail FKT of roughly 60MPD in 2006)
Travis nearly pulled 41 MPD unsupported eight years ago.
So call that the upper limits. But given that's an all out effort of 4.5 and 6.7 days respectively:
Adjust from there as you see fit to cover the 1500 miles that precedes that... and consider you have turn around and do the Long Trail twice.
So 40 ish seems to me a very respectable average time up north as an upper limit.
It's a pretty close comparison. The Long trail has sections that are perhaps harder than the AT... but it also has the southern 100 ish that overlaps the AT that is mildly easy.
Katahdin discounted... the first 60 ish miles of the AT are pretty easy (if dry enough) and there is a stretch or two of easy stuff in there as well.
So on average... two Long Trails (yo-yo) is roughly even in terms of difficulty mix compared to the final 500-600 or so of the AT.
You could probably toss in a presi traverse FKT or something to look at if you wanted to drill down a specific stretch or expand the discussion... but to me boiling down the North AT to a back to back LT (especially NOBO) seems about right. Plus doing a one off 24 ish hour effort is vastly different so it's not much of a valid comparison for me.
I'm not neigh saying like a broken down donkey... but it still seems close to me overall.
Here's a pretty decent hike... one Karel basically looks to be on.
35 days at a 51MPD average= 1785
10 days at a 40MPD average= 400
For a 45 day 2185 FKT (mix and match the last 15 days as you like)
Going NOBO- here's what a 40 day should look like roughly.
52 10 520 57 10 570 65 10 650 42 10 420 .MPD day 2160
You'd need a crazy day or two... Georgia in a day ala Meltzer. Or a big push in the middle ala Matt's 100 mile Shennies... and maybe one more 60+ and crawl up Katahdin.
I don't think it's impossible... though SOBO is likely the way it will need to be done.
That's the reason overall I was looking for more 60's to pop up for Karel before I got too excited about.
I'm more inclined to believe that this will be more of a Jurek Vs Jen squeezer than a Stringbean vs Melzer shocker.
Anywho... we got a few days. Speculating is fun.
Fer being Belgian Karel is running like a swiss watch.
Finally -condolences to Karel and his family.
Courage and Peace to him.
Agreed that 40 days is unlikely. Matching his split for the southern half also seems out of reach without him sneaking in a couple 100+k days before things get gnarly. But why mess with success? The swiss watch can keep ticking off 50s for as long as the trail allows and still nab the record by a couple days. Good luck to Karel for a strong finish!
Yeah, sorry, my 40 day number was a brain fart in the math department. If he kept up 50s for the last 800 that would be 42 days. I'm going to throw out a prediction of 42.75 days! vs. Joe's 45.5. Only because predictions are fun.
Good clean fun right there... I’m calling 42days 12 hours 30 minutes
At this point it's almost a matter of how much he wants to break the record by, assuming no major issues and he handles the rocks reasonably well.
I don't think he's gone past 7pm this month. So he's probably fresher than anyone has been at this point. He could probably push 14-15 hour days into 16-17 if he wants, and perhaps keep close to 50 mile days even on harder terrain. I think he probably still goes another 7-10 days before starting a final push, but he could just decide why risk fatigue issues when he can break the record without pushing to the limit?
Right now he's about 3 miles past where Stringbean stopped, 2 days later in his trek. My prediction is that he pretty much matches Stringbean to the finish, without the final sleepless day. I'll say 43 days, 6 hours, but I could see him going a full day faster if he wants to really push it. An extra 1.5-2 hours the last 10 days would give him another 5 miles/day is my logic. We'll see how NH goes.
While we're throwing numbers out, I'm going to be optimistic and say he clears the 42 day bar.
24 8/9/17 Conodoguinet Creek site Yellow Springs Village site 39.7 1171 25 8/10/17 Yellow Springs Village site Windsor Furnace 51.9 1222.9 26 8/11/17 Windsor Furnace Leroy A Smith Shelter 50 1272.9 27 8/12/17 Leroy A Smith Shelter Gren Anderson Shelter 52.1 1325 28 8/13/17 Gren Anderson Shelter Fitzgerald Falls site 50.2 1375.2 29 8/14/17 Fitzgerald Falls site Shenandiah Campsite 51.9 1427.1 30 8/15/17 Shenandiah Campsite Caesar Brook Campground 53.3 1480.4 31 8/16/17 Caesar Brook Campground Jerusalem Rd site 60.2 1540.6 32 8/17/17 Jerusalem Rd site Wilbur Clearing Shelter 48.6 1589.2 33 8/18/17 Wilbur Clearing Shelter Stratton Pond Shelter 50.8 1640 34 8/19/17 Stratton Pond Shelter Governor Clement Shelter 50.2 1690.2 35 8/20/17 Governor Clement Shelter Norwich, VT 55.3 1745.5 36 8/21/17 Norwich, VT NH-25 site 44.9 1790.4 37 8/22/17 NH-25 site Liberty Springs Campground 27.9 1818.3 38 8/23/17 Liberty Springs Campground Saco River site 25.5 1843.8 39 8/24/17 Saco River site Near Carter Dome site 31.8 1875.6 40 8/25/17 Near Carter Dome site Mahoosuc Notch 40 1915.6 41 8/26/17 Mahoosuc Notch Spruce Mtn site 40.6 1956.2 42 8/27/17 Spruce Mtn site Crocker Cirque Campsite 37.4 1993.6 43 8/28/17 Crocker Cirque Campsite Kennebuc River 44.3 2037.9 44 8/29/17 Kennebuc River North Pond site 39.7 2077.6 45 8/30/17 North Pond site Mud Pond 58.4 2136 46 8/31/17 Mud Pond Mt Katahdin 53.1 2189.1
Stringbean's second half above.
Not that I consider the calculator I put up gospel... but it does generally hold up pretty well. If it falls short somewhere it's usually for the high numbers that pop off in virginia here and there.
Joe did about 50.5 on the 'easy' middle.
Calculator would tell you 31.56 average in the whites.
Real world average was 28.4
Karel is not quite far enough but close enough to say 53.1 MPD average on the easy middle.
So calculator guesses... 33.19 average for the whites.
Being supported... I'd guess closer to that number if weather is clear.
I don't feel like digging them up but few, if any, break 30 MPD. Just a natural speed limit.
If I recall correctly... most fall closer to Stringbean and come in a bit under.
Most do a bit better than the calculator would predict in the south... which makes sense as the calculator is based off thru-hiker times and the SOBOs typically run into daylight issues and colder weather despite posting faster times.
Others may disagree but the actual 20 mile presi traverse isn't really the worst of it if weather is good... but most do find that natural notch to notch hop a bit of a barrier in terms of where/how you'd extend it in either direction by much more than a shelter or camp site hop. The general strategy is to hold back a bit and survive the whites... especially SOBO. Even Nobo there are still some opportunities to race if needed.
Though people emphasize the whites and forget that Southern Maine is just as brutal if not quite as concentrated. In some ways the whites may be better in that concentration of difficulty to deal with.
I'm going 44.5-45d for Karel and agree he seems to be cruising along well with some gas in the tank.
I'd be pleasantly surprised to see someone cruise the whites and southern maine... though I think you would need all the good graces of the sun, stars, moon, weather and the trail itself to score a perfect three day stretch.
You'd probably have to be SOBO.
And you'd probably need to be named Killian.
Though anything is possible... which is the fun of these after all.
Sometimes even your average Joe can turn into Superman.
Karel will average 35+ for the Whites. You can't compare Karel's potential speed to Stringbean carrying a pack and being all beat up at that point. He definitely won't have any days below 30 unless a hurricane comes up the coast, some super heavy rain, or an injury. Note, 40+ mile days are not unheard of during speed hikes through the Whites.
Peter Palmer went from Glencliff, NH (NH25) to Carlo Col Shelter, 114.8 miles, in 3 days or 38.3 mpd.
Yar... that's not of a direct comparison of Joe to Karel... but Joe to the trail and Karel to the trail.
Pretty much every hike I have splits for (JPD and forward) pretty well matches up supported or unsupported, NOBO or SOBO.
Karl had a very nice North at 34.8, with a 33.7, 31.1, 47.1, 27.1. Just an amazing day in there to lift it but still a day below 30 despite going SOBO and tackling it relatively early.
Jurek came in hard... too hard perhaps. But pulled an average of 40 overall on the final 10 days despite bottoming out to a 21.
JPD- did exactly 40 MPD for her first 10 day average... then 48 MPD from there.
36 NH 25A 46.7 37 Galehead Hut 48.5 38 Mizpah Spring Hut 21.1 39 Imp Shelter 32.7 40 Full Goose Shelter 29.4 41 South Arm Rd. 30.1 42 Spaulding Mtn. Leanto 45.1 43 Main Logging Rd. 41.9 44 ME 15 Monson) 45.3 45 near Little Boardman Mtn. 48.8 46 Abol Bridge 50.6 46.38194444 Katahdin 15.1
Jen did a pretty sweet 33.25 average...
Course for the 4 days after Jen averaged 'only' 41 MPD as she dealt with hypothermia and related exhaustion. By the fifth day she was back to 47 and barely dipped below that again.
I'd be mainly talking out of my ass for Andrew, Peter or Horton. (Not much different than talking current folks many may say!)
My understanding is Andrew and Pete are both very strong up north.
Just is what it is really.
These are simply stats... they don't dictate what will happen.
40 and 20 still makes 30.. oh my!
And any feller who went to fancy number manipulation classes beyond my debatable high school diploma would point out the flaws in citing a handful of speedy folks and the few hundred from Map Man's data set to produce anything truly useful.
A little faster than Joe.. would be about 30.
A little faster than Karl... would be about 36.
I don't think we have Horton, Palmer, and Thompson in a daily split sheet format...
My dear Pappy was mainly too busy telling us how everyone who doesn't go NOBO is a butt hurt puss-wad to get into any details on Pete's hike
But I'll take a math teacher's word fer it. That'd make Palmer the fastest I've heard at 38.3... and it was a nobo.
Anything is possible.
Don't make it likely.
If nothing else- I expect a Matt Kirk like steadiness and discipline outta Karel.
Credit where credit is due... I gather he has a solid plan and can crunch a number or two himself.
I expect a boring and steady continuation of metronome footsteps to the finish.
Doesn't really strike me like the sort to gamble it all on destroying the time when all that is required is a minute.
If there is a sprint to the finish it will be the last week... there is zero reason to push the whites or southern maine for Karel. No desperate push needed when you are already in the lead... turtle power to the finish.
I think his luck and good fortune have run a bit longer than most and figure something will slow him up a bit.... not that he has any real flaws personally or isn't capable of doing well or better up north.
But we've got all week for some good solid ****e talking and turd slinging afore we find out.
If Karel just matches Joe from here on out he'd finish just under 44 days. If he can do 40s for those 3 days where Joe averaged 28, that takes off about 0.75 days. Karel has been super strong and consistent so far. Instead of breaking down (Jurek, Meltzer) he's staying healthy and probably just getting fitter. You see this in long multidays (e.g., TransAm) - you either break down or you get stronger & faster. One of the biggest predictors there is whether you can maintain body weight, which Karel appears to be doing just fine & Jurek (especially) & Meltzer didn't. Plus he seems to be getting plenty of sleep - I don't know if Joe did? My guess is he'll do very well in the Whites. Fun to speculate!
I think it pretty much depends on whether Karel wants to push it and come in a few hours later than he has been. He sure appears to have the ability to put up a minimum 35-40 mpd in the toughest terrain. Peter Palmer had motivation to significantly lower Horton's record. He knew Horton and had run against him in ultras and been bettered. I think the motivation for Karel will be going 43.8 days or less and cracking the 50 mpd barrier.
Here is what I have for his progress to date. I have been calculating his performance in Stringbean-days. Each section of the trail is measured in how many days it took Stringbean to cover that section (miles per section divided by miles/day Sringbean hiked on the day he covered that section). Then I add up all the SB-days for all the sections covered by Karel on any given day. He has been very consistently covering just a little over one SB-day every day. You can add these numbers up to calculate how far Karl is ahead in SB-days. This works out to the sum of the SB-days for all the sections SB would have to cover to catch up to Karl on any given day. You can then plot Karl's lead per day (graph below).
Day SB Day 0 1 1.23 2 1.16 3 1.07 4 1.11 5 1.10 6 1.02 7 1.03 8 1.08 9 1.04 10 1.00 11 1.24 12 0.92 13 1.00 14 1.30 15 1.18 16 1.07 17 1.07 18 0.98 19 1.02 20 1.03 21 1.00 22 1.18 23 1.06 24 1.04 25 1.02 26 1.02 27 1.03 28 1.04
Capture.JPG
Does this data indicate Deerfoot is one point zero four days ahead of string bean?
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