Rabies warning for hikers who stayed at Pass Mtn. Hut in SNP 6/7-8

[Traveler]

its not my perception.

the CDC advises anyone who comes into physical contact with a bat that they have no captured for testing to undergo post exposure treatment for rabies.

is there such medical advice given to people who may have encountered someone who might have the flu?

Perceptions often trump reality (no pun intended), however in this issue facts support reality. There are approximately 2 - 3 deaths from rabies in the US annually. Depending on how one looks at the statistics, there are between 4,000 and 36,000 deaths from flu annually in the US. The difference in the flu statistic depends if one considers illnesses that develop from the flu like penumonia or aggravate compromised immune system conditions allowing secondary infection or viruses to occur. However, either number is substantial when compared to rabies.

Due to the relative rarity of CDC rabies exposure advisories, seeing/hearing them will capture nearly immediate attention by the public. The CDC does indeed provide medical advice for people who may be exposed to flu. Due to the nature of flu in the population, CDC advisories are broadcast on many media platforms. Because we see these advisories frequently these advisories become commonplace and part of the background noise of life to a degree, rather like the car alarm going off in a parking lot will take some of your attention momentarily but quickly fades even as the alarm continues. A rabies advisory would be like hearing an air-raid siren in that same parking lot.

CDC advisories are issued in different ways, for example the CDC provides news media with statistical maps of the US showing where flu is, where it has reached peak, and where it is declining to inform the public. Washing hands frequently is perhaps the CDC advice most frequently heard, a close second to that is the message of getting a flu vaccination. Since there is not much that can be done for people who show post exposure symptoms of flu, the third common advice that we hear frequently is stay home, don't spread germs, cough into your arm, lots of fluids and rest, and consult your physician if conditions worsen and you have difficulty breathing or other develop other acute symptoms not commonly experienced with colds.

The CDC has advisories for most contagions that are easily overlooked or forgotten about. One of these the hiking community is most familiar with is norovirus exposure. The methods for limiting and neutralizing exposure are fairly well broadcast by the CDC, which include; washing eating utensils, washing hands routinely, avoid putting food on surfaces that others have touched, not sharing water bottles or snack food bags, water filtration, and elimination hygiene. These advisories become "common sense" measures, no one really thinks of them as being CDC advisories until its looked into.

[tdoczi]

Perceptions often trump reality (no pun intended), however in this issue facts support reality. There are approximately 2 - 3 deaths from rabies in the US annually. Depending on how one looks at the statistics, there are between 4,000 and 36,000 deaths from flu annually in the US. The difference in the flu statistic depends if one considers illnesses that develop from the flu like penumonia or aggravate compromised immune system conditions allowing secondary infection or viruses to occur. However, either number is substantial when compared to rabies.

Due to the relative rarity of CDC rabies exposure advisories, seeing/hearing them will capture nearly immediate attention by the public. The CDC does indeed provide medical advice for people who may be exposed to flu. Due to the nature of flu in the population, CDC advisories are broadcast on many media platforms. Because we see these advisories frequently these advisories become commonplace and part of the background noise of life to a degree, rather like the car alarm going off in a parking lot will take some of your attention momentarily but quickly fades even as the alarm continues. A rabies advisory would be like hearing an air-raid siren in that same parking lot.

CDC advisories are issued in different ways, for example the CDC provides news media with statistical maps of the US showing where flu is, where it has reached peak, and where it is declining to inform the public. Washing hands frequently is perhaps the CDC advice most frequently heard, a close second to that is the message of getting a flu vaccination. Since there is not much that can be done for people who show post exposure symptoms of flu, the third common advice that we hear frequently is stay home, don't spread germs, cough into your arm, lots of fluids and rest, and consult your physician if conditions worsen and you have difficulty breathing or other develop other acute symptoms not commonly experienced with colds.

The CDC has advisories for most contagions that are easily overlooked or forgotten about. One of these the hiking community is most familiar with is norovirus exposure. The methods for limiting and neutralizing exposure are fairly well broadcast by the CDC, which include; washing eating utensils, washing hands routinely, avoid putting food on surfaces that others have touched, not sharing water bottles or snack food bags, water filtration, and elimination hygiene. These advisories become "common sense" measures, no one really thinks of them as being CDC advisories until its looked into.

thats a very roundabout way of saying "no."

i'll continue to not notice or care if someone i bump into has the flu. this is unlikely to cause me much grief.

if i get struck by a bat while out hiking i'll be going to see a doctor.

[tdoczi]

tdoci, your risk of death in the next year from influenza in the next 12 month far, far exceeds your risk of death from rabies. It is OK to unbunch your undies now.

i dont disagree with that part at all.

my point still stands- i will not get a flu shot and this is not very likely to cause me any harm.

if i encounter a bat i'm going to see a dr.

[KCNC]

my info on 1 survivor was dated as well. we'll say a handful have survived?

Statistical outliers happen.

A friend of mine survived Bushmaster envenomation several times over the years.

I'd be getting the rabies vaccination.

[colorado_rob]

I think the WB admins should sponsor a 5K fun-run for a Rabies Cure initiative

https://www.redbubble.com/people/red...cure?p=t-shirt

[MuddyWaters]

i dont disagree with that part at all.

my point still stands- i will not get a flu shot and this is not very likely to cause me any harm.

if i encounter a bat i'm going to see a dr.

My understanding is dr will have to order it

Hence....go directly to ER

And be prepared for $$$$ bill, depending on insurance.

The alarming part is if you get scratched or bit by a wild/feral animal you cannot take a chance if it's not an animal you can catch and observe or kill and submit for analysis. I think most animals that have reached the stage where it's communicable , shedding the virus in saliva , will be showing signs of unusual behavior because they're in the very latest stage of it. They have only a few day left to live at most.

[Five Tango]

I had the flu shot annually until I thot I was going to die of the flu in 2005.I have read articles which question the effectiveness of the vaccination.Being 40 to 60 % effective sounds pretty optimistic based on the results I have had.Some say it is much lower that that.I don't take it anymore.YMMV.

[gpburdelljr]

I had the flu shot annually until I thot I was going to die of the flu in 2005.I have read articles which question the effectiveness of the vaccination.Being 40 to 60 % effective sounds pretty optimistic based on the results I have had.Some say it is much lower that that.I don't take it anymore.YMMV.

Production of flu vaccine must start long before flu season, which means the producers must make their best guess of which strains will be prevalent in the season they are producing for. Sometimes they make a good guess, and sometimes they don’t. Knowing the effectiveness may be low in any given year won’t dissuade me from getting vaccinated. Having had the flu, any amount of effectiveness is OK by me. In the US and estimated 36,000 people die from the flu every year, and an estimated 200,000 are hospitalized. Getting a shot can’t hurt you, but it might help.

[TexasBob]

I had the flu shot annually until I thot I was going to die of the flu in 2005.I have read articles which question the effectiveness of the vaccination.Being 40 to 60 % effective sounds pretty optimistic based on the results I have had.Some say it is much lower that that.I don't take it anymore.YMMV.

I never got a flu shot until I got the flu once, now I get a flu shot every year. Even if it is not particular effective some years, it is worth trying it to potentially avoid feeling like you are going to die. I guess we look at the risk-reward trade off differently.

[tdoczi]

In the US and estimated 36,000 people die from the flu every year.

at the risk of an even more massive sidetrack-

how many of those people are what may described as elderly? lets say for sake of argument 10,000 of them are (i think thats certainly conservative.)

this isnt exactly news, but we are all going to die of something at some point. ive always felt like thats not really statistically noteworthy. what i mean is that if we eradicated the flu and no one died from it anymore that 10K estimate i'm using for sake of argument is going to die of cancer, or diabetes, or heart disease or a stroke or who knows. in other words, no matter what the eventual ultimate cause we can all be used as a statistic about how "x number of people died from y health problem" this year. it seems less than productive to do so. the noteworthy statistics would be about things that cause widespread premature death. the issue is with defining what that is. i can see how thats tricky to pin down, but not even trying to seems silly.

thats one of the things that makes the aforementioned spanish flu pandemic so interesting. it killed young people in droves, not just the elderly. that something like that could appear out of nowhere again is a sobering thought. but if you think it happened because of lack of flu vaccine and that use of flu vaccine will prevent it from happening again.... yeah i hate to be the one to break it to you.

[MuddyWaters]

Half the people that die..roughly....had....a flu shot.
Old, young, weak, sick....are always going to die of something.

Flu deaths are only estimated and crudely at that.

[gpburdelljr]

Half the people that die..roughly....had....a flu shot.

They aren’t perfect, because flu strains change rapidly. But how many more would die if there were no flu shots at all.

[OCDave]

Half the people that die..roughly....had....a flu shot....

Can you provide a source for that?

[MuddyWaters]

They aren’t perfect, because flu strains change rapidly. But how many more would die if there were no flu shots at all.

Not that many

Only 45% get a flu shot
Effectiveness ranges 17-50% or so. Using 40% as avg

So maybe....20% benefit from a shot anyway

At most, 20% higher would get sick.. assuming mortality rate propagates.....at most 20% more would die.

If sick and weak are group primarily benefitting, then could be skewed higher.

But how good are numbers anyway?
They arent.
No one tracks deaths by flu
Most death by flu, were not tested for flu
All respiratory #s are lumped together and a factor used.
They call it a model...its only a crude guess.

[Sarcasm the elf]

I’m just glad that I rely on medical advice from medical professionals.

[OCDave]

Not that many

Only 45% get a flu shot
Effectiveness ranges 17-50% or so. Using 40% as avg

So maybe....20% benefit from a shot anyway

At most, 20% higher would get sick.. assuming mortality rate propagates.....at most 20% more would die.

If sick and weak are group primarily benefitting, then could be skewed higher.

But how good are numbers anyway?
They arent.
No one tracks deaths by flu
Most death by flu, were not tested for flu
All respiratory #s are lumped together and a factor used.
They call it a model...its only a crude guess.

From where are you pulling this information?

[Traveler]

thats a very roundabout way of saying "no."

The claim CDC offers no medical advice for flu exposure is false, regardless of perception.

[MuddyWaters]

From where are you pulling this information?

CDC

Note they claim statistical models, at the same time admitting they have no data gathering capability on which a valid model could have possibly been based. Its 100% conjecture, and inteneded to err on high side so as not to underestimate flus impact.

What they do have is better data on child deaths,required by law, which they primarily extrapolate from I suppose.

There is an agenda here. Not a necessarilly nefarious one.
If you dont convince most people that they must get these shots yearly, and make it affordable, you wont have research, manufacturing, distribution infrastructure in place to produce a vaccine if a particularly nasty strain comes along.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/

about 

/disease/us_flu-related_deaths.htm

What categories does CDC use to estimate flu-associated deaths?

CDC uses two categories of underlying cause of death information listed on death certificates: pneumonia and influenza (P&I) causes and respiratory and circulatory (R&C) causes. CDC uses statistical models with records from these two categories to make estimates of influenza-associated mortality. CDC uses underlying R&C deaths (which include P&I deaths) as the primary outcome in its mortality modeling because R&C deaths provide an estimate of deaths that include secondary respiratory or cardiac complications that can follow influenza. R&C causes of death are more sensitive to describe flu-related deaths than underlying P&I deaths and more specific than deaths from all causes.

[gpburdelljr]

Not that many

Only 45% get a flu shot
Effectiveness ranges 17-50% or so. Using 40% as avg

So maybe....20% benefit from a shot anyway

At most, 20% higher would get sick.. assuming mortality rate propagates.....at most 20% more would die.

If sick and weak are group primarily benefitting, then could be skewed higher.

But how good are numbers anyway?
They arent.
No one tracks deaths by flu
Most death by flu, were not tested for flu
All respiratory #s are lumped together and a factor used.
They call it a model...its only a crude guess.

Assuming your fuzzy logic is correct, and 20% more would die each year, that works out to an estimated 7,200 people. I consider that to be a significant number, and reason enough for everyone to get the flu shot. Getting the shot can’t give you the flu, and might keep you from getting it. If you don’t get the flu because you got the shot, then you don’t become a vector to give it to someone else that might die from getting it.

[Five Tango]

Production of flu vaccine must start long before flu season, which means the producers must make their best guess of which strains will be prevalent in the season they are producing for. Sometimes they make a good guess, and sometimes they don’t. Knowing the effectiveness may be low in any given year won’t dissuade me from getting vaccinated. Having had the flu, any amount of effectiveness is OK by me. In the US and estimated 36,000 people die from the flu every year, and an estimated 200,000 are hospitalized. Getting a shot can’t hurt you, but it might help.

Thanks for making my point.The medical community is shooting at a moving target when it comes to influenza and there is no way to know what strain will materialize when you need protection.But one thing is for sure,they have frightened the public into buying something that is not very effective.

But to get back on track,rabies vaccinations work.They will never be widespread because most people don't get exposed.I can't help but wonder how many AT hikers who have slept in shelters have been exposed to a bat.Seems like a shelter would be a great bat habitat,just like it is for mice.