The AT a Hundred Years from Now

[rickb]

There will be far fewer songbirds for those walking with spring to listen too.

Already noticeable within my own lifetime.

On a tangential note, Guy and Laura Waterman’s Forest and Crag gives a fascinating look back as to what hiking and peoples’ love for the mountains in the Northeast was like 100 years in the other direction.

[cliffordbarnabus]

bluetooth cameras in all shelters. so when you are at shelter x thinking of going to shelter x + 4.9 miles, you can see what's there.

[SWODaddy]

They have. This article explains how a single gene introduced into an American Chestnut makes it resistant to the blight fungus. It is an interesting read because it addresses the controversies regarding GMOs. The authors point out that tratitional plant breeding introduces thousands of foreign genes whereas this method makes a plant that is 99.999% identical to the original. They also point out that horizontal gene transfer (i.e. genetic engineering) happens all the time in nature. If approved, this tree would be the first GMO produced for environmental restoration. Of course, the organic farm-to-table restaurants couldn't serve these chestnuts or pork bellies from pigs fed these chestnuts as they aren't "pure". Their loss.

https://www.acf.org/our-community/ne...d-iconic-tree/

That's neat, and I agree that most people don't understand how everything we eat has been genetically modified by some means.

[TexasBob]

Most likely the forest ecology will be very different. From a Forest Service report on the northeastern forests page 15 --
https://www.fs.fed.us/nrs/pubs/gtr/gtr_nrs99.pdf

"Current modeling studies project that the dominant tree species in the region are likely to undergo dramatic range shifts as forests slowly disassemble and reassemble in response to changes in suitable habitat over the next 100 years. Projections suggest that suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests may virtually disappear from the Northeast in the next 100 years, and that habitat for the northern hardwood trees that currently dominate the region is likely to be replaced by conditions better suited to oak forests"

[SWODaddy]

I haven't seen anyone mention demographics. In 100yrs, the US will look a lot more like Brazil. Does Brazil have any good, well-managed hiking trails? (I don't know - I hope so).

We can talk about technology, cost, and intrusion of regulations and what not - those are all givens, but the 800lb gorilla is that the average hiker of today will be a distinct minority in 100yrs.

People are worried about overcrowding, I'm wondering whether it will even exist due to less interest coupled with a skyrocketing population. As population increases, demand for housing will increase. Hell, the DC corridor is already at Shenandoah's doorstep.

[SC_Forester]

[QUOTE=hikernutcasey;2211960
Also, it would be cool if the scientists can finally figure out a way to come up with a version of the American Chestnut that begins to thrive and come back to the forests like they once were. Maybe in 200 years[/QUOTE]

Your right about this however, its already happening. They have 15/16 American Chestnut 1/16 Chinese Chestnut. The 1/16 Chinese has the blight resistance in it. Breeding programs are around for native blight resistance trees. This will put an end to the Rhododendron thickets except down near streams (like it should be).
Sadly Hemlocks are on their way out due to the Hemlock woolly adelgid. They will likely be gone in the next 20-40 years.

[gpburdelljr]

Your right about this however, its already happening. They have 15/16 American Chestnut 1/16 Chinese Chestnut. The 1/16 Chinese has the blight resistance in it. Breeding programs are around for native blight resistance trees. This will put an end to the Rhododendron thickets except down near streams (like it should be).
Sadly Hemlocks are on their way out due to the Hemlock woolly adelgid. They will likely be gone in the next 20-40 years.

Scientists have developed a blight resistant American Chestnut that is 99.999% identical to American Chestmuts in the wild. See this link, originally posted by Odd Man Out in post #13 of this thread.

https://www.acf.org/our-community/ne...d-iconic-tree/

[futureatwalker]

My suspicion is that it will be a mixture of good and bad 100 years from now, as it always is..

2118... well, we know that it will be warmer - some increases in temperature are 'baked in' now, so to speak. So, likely it will be possible to reliably start earlier. That said, the summer months may more taxing for comfortable hiking. Perhaps Katahdin will be open longer though.

It could be wetter. As the climate warms, there is more moisture in the air. Again, we are seeing tastes of this already.

The tick thing will likely get worse, but in a hundred years there will probably be quite efficient ways of protecting against them.

As someone else mentioned, the AT would now pass through large sections of old growth forest. This could be magnificent. I'm optimistic on this front, as if you look at New England 100 years or so ago, it was heavily logged. Now, it is largely forested.

My hope, perhaps illusory, is that the AT will gain more of a historical legacy, having by that time been around for so long, and it's appreciation/protection will be part of the culture.

And oh, the gear...

[SC_Forester]

Scientists have developed a blight resistant American Chestnut that is 99.999% identical to American Chestmuts in the wild. See this link, originally posted by Odd Man Out in post #13 of this thread.

https://www.acf.org/our-community/ne...d-iconic-tree/

ACF does some great things. The ACF previous efforts, that I mentioned are 4 generations a head of this research. I have 6 of these trees planted in the forest I manage.

[gpburdelljr]

ACF does some great things. The ACF previous efforts, that I mentioned are 4 generations a head of this research. I have 6 of these trees planted in the forest I manage.

If I understand your first post, the trees you have are 15/16 (93.85%) American Chestnut versus the 99.999% ones developed by the American Chestnut Research and Restoration Project.

[Dogwood]

If I understand your first post, the trees you have are 15/16 (93.85%) American Chestnut versus the 99.999% ones developed by the American Chestnut Research and Restoration Project.

Is that a new development? I ask because I knew of blight resistant chestnut hybridization - backcrossing - done by the American Chestnut Foundation and USDA in cooperation with the National Arboretum in Washington DC - between old growth stands of N America blight resistant strains of American chestnut(Castanea dentata) with highly blight resistant Chinese Chestnut(Castanea mollissima) that is more than 35 yrs old resulting in named varieties of Castanea Dentata x Mollissima. If that was(is) so promising why aren't we already seeing an abundance of 25+ yr old trees? I believe the strong growing street American Chestnut hybrids crossed with the Chinese chestnuts are what the Washington DC street Chestnuts are, specifically Dunstan and Badgersette(?) varieties. Do you know if the research you're referring is also including DNA lateral hybridizing with Japanese chestnut (C. crenata) and Seguin(C. pumila)?

[skater]

If you want there to BE an AT in a hundred years, volunteer with your local trail maintaining organization. It is only through the dedication of thousands of volunteers that the trail can exist.

Of course, for many of you, that's not geographically possible. Support your local trails, or contribute to the Appalachian Trail Conservancy or one of the 31 maintaining organizations.

And we can all help guard against things that endanger the trail - pipelines, budget cuts, rules allowing wheeled vehicles, or whatever you perceive as a danger - by making your views known to your state and federal representatives.

The visions others have presented above show many interesting possibilities. Let's help give them a chance to come true.

[Cosmo]

In another one or two generations, current crop of Trail stewards/maintainers will have died out. Not enough of the next gen will have the same desire/time/money to devote to keeping the foortpath cleared and the landscape protected. They will be distracted by all of the things in their lives (and w/o Social Security and related entitlements, be working into their 80’s and taking care of their parents). The Trail will cease to be continuous, and slowly become overgrown and forgotten, a piece at a time.

Either that, or a new tick-borne illness will make hiking too hazardous.

Cosmo

[Another Kevin]

In another one or two generations, current crop of Trail stewards/maintainers will have died out. Not enough of the next gen will have the same desire/time/money to devote to keeping the foortpath cleared and the landscape protected. They will be distracted by all of the things in their lives (and w/o Social Security and related entitlements, be working into their 80’s and taking care of their parents). The Trail will cease to be continuous, and slowly become overgrown and forgotten, a piece at a time.

Either that, or a new tick-borne illness will make hiking too hazardous.

There are two ways to interpret your first paragraph. One is as an "if this goes on..." cautionary tale, intended to inspire more people to get off their arses and volunteer as trail maintainers - in which case, more power to you! More hands are surely needed! I don't volunteer on the AT, simply because when I do have time to do trail work, there are trails that need love much closer to home, and at the moment, I don't even have much time to hike. (Life the last few months has been ... complicated.)

The other interpretation, that it's important to guide against, is as a counsel of despair. As it's written, it's far too likely to make someone who was thinking about volunteering to fall into apathy: "what's the point, it's all futile." Surely not the message you intended, but it's still important to guard against it. Therefore, I urge you to consider: You and I are both old men. When did you first pick up a McLeod or a rock lever, a saw or a clipper, and get out there and maintain trail? For all I know, it was in your teens! Did you ever set the tools down while attending to a young family, or a new job, or something else where life demanded your attention, for a year or a decade? Among your colleagues, how many of them joined in their youth and worked steadily throughout life? How many joined in middle age, or in retirement? I submit that the next generation are fundamentally no different from the current generation, or the last generation, except that they are young. Many of us old poops have forgotten what we were like at their age. I was a real jerk. (Still am, but I've got better at compensating for it by doing things like volunteering for projects and acting nice to people.)

Surely, the young people face a different set of challenges than you or I did, but the current political and economic climate will not last forever, any more than the one that you and I grew up in did. (Of course, the onus is on us to keep things moving forward. I say that without offering an endorsement of any of the alternatives on offer; judge policy by your own conscience. Principled people can disagree vehemently on the right action to bring about a society that respects their principles, so never disengage from those whose opinions differ.)

I also submit you have a jaundiced view, having just spent a lot of time labouring in the mud and flies, getting the trails back into shape from all the winter damage. For which I offer heartfelt thanks!

As far as the tick-borne illness goes, I remain guardedly optimistic. These bugs have been around since forever. It's just that we're learning about them - and learning about them, and naming them, is the first step to solving the problem. Rocky Mountain spotted fever, we've known about for a couple of centuries. Tularemia, for about a century. Babesiosis, ehrlichiosis, anaplasmosis, and of course Lyme disease (borreliasis) are more newly discovered - but don't think that the ticks didn't carry these a century ago. It was more that people sickened, and nobody knew why. They caught a case of "there's a lot of it going around."

Moreover, these are diseases of wildland in transition. They multiply in the deer and rodent populations, and flare as epidemics in the newly recovered wildlands - the relaimed wasteland that I spoke of earlier. I see plagues of ticks when I hike in 'new growth', where the deer breed like vermin and the mice and voles and even rats are everywhere in the dense undergrowth of forbs and grasses. In the old growth timber, even the "old second growth" that we enjoy in a few places on this side of the Taconics, the understory is more open, offering less cover for the vermin. I see many fewer deer and rodents - and in general a much greater diversity of animals. I'm sure that the vermin population is also controlled better when I see the signs of mink and marten and fishers and coyotes. In those forests, and even in the spruce and balsam, I can hike for days without picking up passengers. (Which I usually find dead in permethrin-treated clothing; I may be an optimist, but I'm still prudent enough to take precautions!)

I'm still many more times more likely to perish, or suffer disability, from an automobile accident on the way to and from a trailhead than I am to endure a similar fate from a tick bite.

So, courage, my friend. By all means keep working to preserve what we have, and to recruit they youger folk, but have faith that when the time comes for you and me to hike the lonesome valley home, the hands that we had to work so hard to get to join us will be capable of taking over. The world always is and always will be a work in progress. By all means go on mending it, but don't forget to enjoy the parts that aren't broken!

[rocketsocks]

I’m for letting it revert back to an overgrown wilderness and follow game trails through the corridor, there's more than one way to get to Maine.

[rocketsocks]

I feel like this is a semi-pessimistic view of the future. But I suppose that is the view of most democrats when there is a republican in the white house. (he started it)

I can imagine having to get a permit, and can't say it is a bad idea. There are already trail police, technically, in the parks and such. We really should all be trail police with our fellow hikers to ensure everyone is doing the right thing.

I also think we can all expect lighter, smaller, and much more expensive equipment.

Odd Man Out is also probably right. If we accept 2% inflation rate per year, he really isn't far off.

I, for one, would be excited to see what type of composite materials are available. As well as what new trails are available on Mars.

ya wake up at 3 in the morning, sweat soaked, the walls are closing in, ya gotta go hiking...oh wait, I gotta get a permit first. Horrible idea! Don’t take it personally it wasn’t meant to be, my verbiage I was meant to be harsh for harsh sake.

[Runner2017]

A hundred years from now almost no one will be interested in thru-hiking that AT.

The rising sea level has largely taken all coastal cities. Thanks to global famine brought by the climate change and polar shift, nearly 1/3 the world's population is gone. Nearly all newborn babies are fixed right at birth so they won't be able to have their own babies when they grow up. The plan is to reduce the world's population to no more than 350 million by 2350. You really have to be one of ruling class members to have your babies not fixed.

By then, the plan will mandate that entire humanity move to live in floating cities on the surface of the ocean for the next 1500 years, to give the land and wild life to reheal and rejuvenate.

[rickb]

Hyperbole aside, climate change will no doubt impact the Trail in ways large and small.

Last weekend I saw my first Giant Swallowtail butterfly in Massachusetts — 10 yeas ago it would have been unheard of to see them this far north.

People will come and go and the aesthetic scars of fire pits and overuse can heal themselves, but once we screw up things for the flora and fauna, there will be no going back. I think we are in a true sweet spot (still a few fish in the ocean, great trails and good dentistry) on the infinite time line. Assuming we have just one life, we all won the lottery. I would say we’ll see, but we won’t ...

[rocketsocks]

Hyperbole aside, climate change will no doubt impact the Trail in ways large and small.

Last weekend I saw my first Giant Swallowtail butterfly in Massachusetts — 10 yeas ago it would have been unheard of to see them this far north.

People will come and go and the aesthetic scars of fire pits and overuse can heal themselves, but once we screw up things for the flora and fauna, there will be no going back. I think we are in a true sweet spot (still a few fish in the ocean, great trails and good dentistry) on the infinite time line. Assuming we have just one life, we all won the lottery. I would say we’ll see, but we won’t ...

Had em last year eat my parsley, pupate and fly away.

[rocketsocks]

Had em last year eat my parsley, pupate and fly away.

Oops, the group “W” bench is in NJ