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  1. #81
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    Just some speculation and I wish nothing but good vibes on Harvey..... But if he's falling behind while being supported in the south where IIRC string bean wasn't at his best, what's he gonna do up north where string Bean absolutely killed it. IMO if he wants this he's got to build a lead now not just barely be hanging on.

  2. #82

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    Quote Originally Posted by ScottS View Post
    It's always been qualified which direction someone went but was more of a "so you know" than an official distinction. Interesting that they've now separated the times.
    I hope I don't come across like I'm picking on you at all. The last couple years have just seen a lot of people new to FKTs who don't seem to really understand or want to. It hurts every time I hear "unsupported AT record."
    And I can already see people saying how Joe doesn't have his record any more were Harvey to beat his time.
    It hurts.
    I completely understand where you're coming from - and I completely agree with you. One of the other team members who manages the Harvey Lewis Ultra Runner Facebook page accidentally posted that Harvey was going after the "unsupported record." As Harvey has moved further along, the incredibleness (that's a word, right?) of what Joe did is becoming more and more apparent. And regardless of how Harvey finishes, Joe's unsupported AT record will remain (my guess would be for quite some time).

    We're planning on making a post on the Facebook page that calls attention to the fact that Stringbean didn't have a van driving him to hotels, or someone cooking his dinner or doing his laundry. What Joe did is amazing, and we'll be doing what we can from our side to make sure that Joe gets the recognition that he deserves (regardless of when/if Harvey makes it to Maine).

  3. #83

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    Quote Originally Posted by jdx1177 View Post
    Just some speculation and I wish nothing but good vibes on Harvey..... But if he's falling behind while being supported in the south where IIRC string bean wasn't at his best, what's he gonna do up north where string Bean absolutely killed it. IMO if he wants this he's got to build a lead now not just barely be hanging on.
    Harvey's currently suffering through some tendinitis and luckily had both a nurse practitioner and a doctor on the crew yesterday. Additionally, a PT that he's worked with in the past is arriving Friday so the team is hopeful that some lower mileage days and some extra medical care can hopefully make the pain more manageable.

    Personally, the thought of being "tied" with Stringbean heading into the last week scares me quite a bit when I look at the numbers. Assuming that Harvey is able to bounce back, we're planning on trying to eek out as much of a lead as possible. Joe's average miles over the next 10 days works out to 49.54, which isn't going to make things easy.

    Yesterday's low number - 38.1 miles to VA 311, 709.4 - potentially would have happened regardless of how Harvey was feeling with the next road crossing not until 729.2 which would have been a 58 mile day. As we look ahead over the next couple of days, there are a few more options within the target range that will provide some good stops for getting an average up north of 50 miles per day. Assuming his leg cooperates. If it doesn't.....

  4. #84
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    Stringbean had some low mile dsys through this stretch, so it's would be a place to get caught up or ahead of the pace.

  5. #85

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    Harvey is about to get into the more difficult part of Virginia where there are a several big, steep, rocky climbs and descents - to say nothing of all the "little" ones. I see it will also be hot and humid. Add in tendinitis and the next couple of days should be a real challenge for him. But once past there, it gets easier for awhile.
    Follow slogoen on Instagram.

  6. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slo-go'en View Post
    Harvey is about to get into the more difficult part of Virginia where there are a several big, steep, rocky climbs and descents
    That downhill on the Priest......whew doggie

  7. #87

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    Quote Originally Posted by Crushed Grapes View Post
    That downhill on the Priest......whew doggie
    I happened to run the last mile + of the Priest down to 56 with him, running up some food/drink since we missed him at the previous crew spot. He was bombing down sections of that and ran well on all of what I saw. Wish I could've taken video but I couldn't even quite keep up just concentrating on running. Spent most of the last 4 days crewing and sometimes accompanying--really impressed especially how he keeps so upbeat even during rough patches. No disrespect to stringbean or any of the others, just that I'm seeing this effort firsthand.

  8. #88

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    Quote Originally Posted by TrailRunnerGuy View Post
    Spent most of the last 4 days crewing and sometimes accompanying--really impressed especially how he keeps so upbeat even during rough patches.
    He's been smiling in every picture I've seen on Facebook. David Horton and Tim Lewis have posted a few in the last couple of days and he looks great. Good luck!

  9. #89
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    Despite doing well, he is still loosing ground to Stringbean's pace every day. He will need to post at least 50 MPD just to keep pace, mid 50's to close the gap.

    Harvey StringBean
    Day Start Location Day Miles Location Day Miles Ahead of Pace
    0 Springer Mtn/AT Southern Terminus Springer Mtn/AT Southern Terminus
    1 Unicoi Gap/GA Hwy 75 52.3 Low Gap Shelter 42.6 9.7
    2 Rock Gap Shelter/USFS Rd 67 53.1 Standing Indian Shelter 43.1 19.7
    3 Stecoah Gap/NC Hwy 143 44.9 Nantahala, NC/US Hwy 19/74 50.8 13.8
    4 Clingmans Dome Tower 49.3 Spence Field Shelter/Eagle Creek Trail 46.8 16.3
    5 Davenport Gap/NC Hwy 32 39.1 Cosby Knob Shelter 47.4 8.0
    6 Log Cabin Rd 52.1 Hot Springs, NC/NC Hwy 209 43.6 16.5
    7 Spivey Gap/US Hwy 19W 42.0 Bald Mtn Shelter 52.7 5.8
    8 Roan Mountain, TN/US Hwy 19E 62.0 Roan High Knob Shelter 51.5 16.3
    9 Iron Mtn Shelter 49.2 Watauga Lake Shelter 51.5 14.0
    10 Elk Garden/VA Rd 600 50.3 Saunders Shelter 49.6 14.7
    11 Partnership Shelter/VA Hwy 16 39.2 Partnership Shelter/VA Hwy 16 53.9 0.0
    12 Laurel Creek/VA Rd 615 50.8 Jenkins Shelter/Hunting Camp Creek 46.4 4.4
    13 Pearisburg, VA/VA Hwy 100 52.2 Cross Ave/VA Rd 793 55.6 1.0
    14 Rocky Gap/VA Rd 601 34.8 Craig Creek/VA Rd 621 52.8 -17.0
    15 Catawba, VA/VA Hwy 311 38.1 Daleville, VA/US Hwy 220 40.9 -19.8
    16 Bearwallow Gap/BRP 90.9 41.4 Thunder Hill 44.8 -23.2
    17 Robinson Gap Rd/VA Rd 607 46.4 Woodworth Shelter/Lovingston Trail 47.8 -24.6
    18 Reids Gap/VA Rd 664/BRP 13.6 46.7 Calf Mtn Shelter 48.9 -26.8

  10. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by TravisRex View Post
    As Harvey has moved further along, the incredibleness (that's a word, right?) of what Joe did is becoming more and more apparent. And regardless of how Harvey finishes, Joe's unsupported AT record will remain (my guess would be for quite some time).
    My head is still spinning from last year’s performances by both Joes! The more I ponder it, the more I think we’re nearing a tipping point (at least on the AT) where a “self-supported” bid (or some hybrid of crewed fast packing) is most advantageous. Crazy to think...

    Quality lightweight gear can help insure a good rest whenever and wherever for just a few pounds on the back. No days need to be inconveniently shortened/lengthened as they do when relying on roads for the day’s starting/stopping points.

    Consider also the uptick in goods and services with the connectivity that’s now become standard. Conversations with ground control can happen more and more places without loss of signal. With ear buds in, one can walk and talk down the trail. No time need be wasted with strategy sessions outside a parked RV.

    Every supported effort seems to have a story of a botched rendezvous. The driver gets lost, the van runs out of gas, a tire pops... Meanwhile, it’s easier and easier for a hiker (or a friend, or family member on behalf of the hiker) to call ahead to some service down the trail. Arranging timely delivery of a meat-lover’s pizza to a trailhead, for example. I’m not even sure I’m up on all the latest tricks anymore…

    Prearranged? Perhaps. The point is: things are endlessly evolving and the semantics of “self-supported” seem to matter less when it’s the overall FKT at stake. As curiosity takes hold, I’m becoming more intrigued and less irritated by the blurring of lines… Good luck to Harvey and kudos for the tracking.

  11. #91

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    Quote Originally Posted by matthew.d.kirk View Post
    My head is still spinning from last year’s performances by both Joes! The more I ponder it, the more I think we’re nearing a tipping point (at least on the AT) where a “self-supported” bid (or some hybrid of crewed fast packing) is most advantageous. Crazy to think...
    It does make a lot of sense. There have been several days in this journey where the team has had to decide between something like 41 and 55 miles. That's...that's not an ideal choice.

    If I was making my own run at the FKT I'd do a hybrid approach like you're proposing and have a support crew available during the day, and pick up a bag of overnight gear late in the day (or if I'm making a wish list, have an advance crew hike out and set up camp and continue running as light as possible). Or sleep in the van once every 3-4 nights. You'll still run into some of these odd distance situations but it feels like they'd be happening a lot less often. It felt like Harvey had multiple days in a row where the options were either picking a number way under or way over his goal pace. It got to the point where I just started scanning the AT Data Book for road crossings that were 8+ miles apart and sure enough, those would be the ones that Harvey's day would end with needing to make a decision about that section.

    Thus far, Harvey has stayed at a shelter just once - Iron Mountain on day 9 - and unfortunately didn't sleep all that well which turned him off staying in the back country (In full disclosure, the plan had been to always stay at the van, at least south of PA, but the road crossing at Wilbur Dam Rd was too early in the day and Tenn 91 would have made for a very long day (54 miles after doing 62 the day before) so Harvey called an audible and slept somewhere other than the van/hostel.

  12. #92

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    Quote Originally Posted by Odd Man Out View Post
    Despite doing well, he is still loosing ground to Stringbean's pace every day. He will need to post at least 50 MPD just to keep pace, mid 50's to close the gap.
    Unfortunately Day 19 was another rough day to Black Rock Gap - which I have as 40.5 miles behind Stringbean. I took Harvey's mark at 18 days, 12 hours - or 27 days to go for the FKT - and he needs 48.8 for those 27 days which obviously get tougher.

    Over the next 7 days (including day 19), Stringbean did 353.9, an average of 50.6 per day just to hold the gap at 40 miles. Jurek, it should be noted, did 377.2 over those same 7 days so it's possible to make up some ground.

    Ultimately it all comes down to how Harvey's feeling. As TrailRunnerGuy noted, when he's running, he's moving well, and when I spoke with him earlier in the week he made a point of asking how my family was doing, so he still seems to be very "Harvey-like" (if you've met him before you'll know what that means).

    But a positive mental outlook and good vibes won't suddenly make the miles tick by faster. As I log the day's miles and look ahead to potential stops for the next three days, that's one less day for him to be able to make up some time.

    Right now I can still make the numbers make sense on paper. Is it still possible? Sure. Joe went from being 18 miles ahead of Jurek on day 19 to 9 miles behind Jurek on day 24. A few good days in a row - and maybe a very good day or two - and Harvey is back in this. A few more bad days and, well....

  13. #93

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    Thanks for your updates TravisRex. Love the numbers you are processing. Everything looks doable on paper . Like you said though, it’s all up to how Harvey is feeling. He’s not out of the picture yet but like you said, there certainly will be a tipping point. I hope either way Harvey will stand on top of Mt. Katahdin. I couldn’t imagine the mental dialogue going on in Harvey’s head with those numbers. Hope he doesn’t focus on them to much. But even more exaggerated than, say, a 100 mile race you start realizing that X person is X time ahead and there is X miles left that means I have to run X fast. It’s hard. Couldn’t imagine it over the next 27 days.


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  14. #94

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    Quote Originally Posted by matthew.d.kirk View Post
    My head is still spinning from last year’s performances by both Joes! The more I ponder it, the more I think we’re nearing a tipping point (at least on the AT) where a “self-supported” bid (or some hybrid of crewed fast packing) is most advantageous. Crazy to think...

    Quality lightweight gear can help insure a good rest whenever and wherever for just a few pounds on the back. No days need to be inconveniently shortened/lengthened as they do when relying on roads for the day’s starting/stopping points.

    Consider also the uptick in goods and services with the connectivity that’s now become standard. Conversations with ground control can happen more and more places without loss of signal. With ear buds in, one can walk and talk down the trail. No time need be wasted with strategy sessions outside a parked RV.

    Every supported effort seems to have a story of a botched rendezvous. The driver gets lost, the van runs out of gas, a tire pops... Meanwhile, it’s easier and easier for a hiker (or a friend, or family member on behalf of the hiker) to call ahead to some service down the trail. Arranging timely delivery of a meat-lover’s pizza to a trailhead, for example. I’m not even sure I’m up on all the latest tricks anymore…

    Prearranged? Perhaps. The point is: things are endlessly evolving and the semantics of “self-supported” seem to matter less when it’s the overall FKT at stake. As curiosity takes hold, I’m becoming more intrigued and less irritated by the blurring of lines… Good luck to Harvey and kudos for the tracking.
    Does any of that increasing intrigue lead to making another go of it? I feel like you really generated the inertia of self supported record breakthroughs over the last few years.

  15. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by CalebJ View Post
    Does any of that increasing intrigue lead to making another go of it? I feel like you really generated the inertia of self supported record breakthroughs over the last few years.
    Haha. Getting a 1.5 month pass is just about as out of reach as these amazing performances... But thanks for the compliment! If I ever do whip this dad bod back into mountain shape, I might have a go (in a hybridized style) at something less than half as long as the AT. But right now, that adventure remains a dream and a fun/annoying mapping problem (chinese postman algorithm, anyone?)

    Meanwhile, it's going to keep heating up on the AT this season (both literally and figuratively) as http://www.karelsabbe.com/ gets ready to roll out.

  16. #96

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    Quote Originally Posted by matthew.d.kirk View Post
    But right now, that adventure remains a dream and a fun/annoying mapping problem (chinese postman algorithm, anyone?)
    Ooh man, we started trying to go down the road of "Science the <bleep> out of this" to use the quote from The Martian, but the problem is that each day the best path changes unless you make the optimal choice each day. What might have been the best possible option for Day 5 when you first started now doesn't make sense. So rather than try to solve the the trail long distance, we started looking at shorter time periods (typically 3 days) to come up with the "best" route for any given mileage.

    So the program that I wrote (The "HarveyTrack 3000," because all good mapping programs need to have a 3000 in the name) starts by looking to see what combination of distances gets you to a desired average distance (let's say 50 miles). Then it looks to see which group of distances are the closest together (or what I'm calling "efficiency"). Let's say you end up with the following:

    Option 1:
    Day 1: 50 miles
    Day 2: 60 miles
    Day 3: 40 miles

    Option 2:
    Day 1: 52 miles
    Day 2: 48 miles
    Day 3: 50 miles

    Assuming the same amount of elevation each day (say 13,000 feet), option 2 is clearly preferable. You end up with the same average, but the difference between your long day and your short day is only 4 miles. Are there instances where Option 1 might make more sense? Sure - especially if you're self supported and are able to restock on day 3. But it feels more efficient to have your distances as close to your target as possible.

    Where it gets tougher is if Option 2 had the following distances instead:
    Day 1: 47 miles
    Day 2: 49 miles
    Day 3: 48 miles

    The average here is only 48 - so you're 6 miles behind, but your min/max range is only 2 miles compared to 20 miles in Option 1. Is that worth being 6 miles behind? I don't know.

    That's actually an interesting question - and one that I'm curious to start playing around with - if someone wanted to average 49 miles per day, staying overnight only at road crossings, and completely ignoring elevation/mud/any other factor - what are the most efficient stops each day?

  17. #97

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    Here's a post that I made on the Facebook group, recapping the progress the first 22 days. Someone - correctly - pointed out that JPD was not included in the metrics that I originally posted, but I did later add her in (she went through Crampton Gap southbound on Day 26, so was effectively on the same pace as Karl).

    As Day 22 draws to a close (well, technically at 5 am tomorrow morning), let's take a second and check to see how Harvey is doing overall:

    NOTE: As of 11:15 pm eastern, Harvey is still on the move. This post assumes that he's stopping at the next road crossing.

    Miles: 1041.2 (Reno Monument Road, Fox Gap). 54.2 miles on the day, 52.7 mile average over the past three days (50.6, 53.4, 54.2). Overall average, 47.3 miles per day.

    Let's look at how that compares:

    - At the end of his day 22, Joe "Stringbean" McConaughy was at 1077.5 miles - 36.3 miles ahead. Over the next 7 days, Joe averaged 49.9 miles with a low of 39.7 and a high of 53.8. (And again, remember that Joe was self-supported. He had no van, no hot meal waiting, no one to do his laundry).

    - Scott Jurek ended his day 22 at 1066.8 - 25.6 miles ahead. Over the next 7 days, Jurek averaged 52.6 miles with a low of 45.5 and a high of 59.2.

    If you've been following along, you'll notice these are the two main benchmarks that the team talks about. Stringbean as the current record holder, and Jurek for the large public interest following the recent publication of his book "North."

    There's not a lot of comparison done to Karl Meltzer or Joey Campanelli (who I don't know if we've mentioned by name, but did a 48 day, 23 hour self-supported journey and deserves some recognition) - mostly because they traveled from Maine to Georgia (SOuthBOund - or SOBO like the cool kids say), so it's difficult to make a comparison with the different terrain.

    (Just a quick aside, but Stringbean and Campanelli were both hiking on the trail in opposite directions at the same time. Stringbean started from the south in late July, Campanelli from the north in early August. Not only were they both unsupported, they were effectively going head-to-head on the trail)

    But since we're doing a recap, let's dive into Karl's numbers.

    After 22 days, Karl was at 956.9 miles, though across the challenging northern terrain. Coincidentally on Day 26, Karl slept at "Gapland Rd" - which Harvey went through late in the day today.

    So there's two ways to look at Karl's progress:

    1. If Harvey travels to Maine at the same speed that Karl traveled south, Harvey will finish in 48 days (22 days to this point, 26 days for Karl from Maine->Gapland Rd).

    2. From Gapland Road, it took Karl 20 days (or technically 19 days, 22 hours, and 38 minutes) to travel the same distance as Harvey has covered in 22 days.

    Here's part of the reason why we've avoiding making these kinds of comparisons to Karl's progress - it doesn't account for the "final kick" factor. Or as much of a final kick as you can have after spending 6 weeks sleeping in the back of a van. Karl was pushing hard as he got closer to Springer Mountain, the same way that Harvey will be pushing hard as he gets closer to Maine. So instead we focus on the Northbounders where everyone was (roughly) in the same place at the (roughly) same time.

    One of the roles that I play on the team as the "numbers guy" is to be objective, pragmatic, and realistic. Numbers don't have feelings. It doesn't matter if 3 is in a great mood, it's still less than 4 (Which reminds me of a joke - Why is 6 afraid of 7? Because 7 8 9. Get it? 7 ate 9? This is why I'm the "numbers guy" not the "funny guy")

    Harvey's behind record pace. He knows it, everyone on the team knows it. But knowing something doesn't determine how you react to it. We all know what needs to be done and we're all doing what we can to support Harvey, whether from the side of the road, in front of a computer screen, or just putting positive energy out into the world.

    I wrote a draft of this post earlier today figuring I knew where he'd be stopping for the day after spending 3 weeks watching little triangles appear on a map every 10 minutes. And frantically wrote a new version as I "saw" him move beyond that point.

    I got a message from Harvey's fiancee Kelly the other day recapping a phone call with Harvey earlier that day - "He said, 'I'm a fighting fox, just wait and see what I can still do.' He also said he is not going to back down."

    Harvey still believes this is possible.

    And, from my objective, pragmatic, realistic view....he's right.

    It is possible.

    I've known Harvey for 4 years, been a part of his crew at the Badwater 135 three times, and followed numerous races of his online. And there will come a time where I look at the gap to the leader, or his current pace, and as the numbers guy think to myself "There's no way he comes back from this..."

    And then he does.

    I've witnessed first-hand Harvey shuffling along a road, only to find myself desperately trying to keep up as he sprints uphill at 8:00 mile pace (in the case of one particular half mile section at Badwater, while carrying paper cups filled with pancakes and syrup. Quick crewing tip for you: Don't try to run while carrying a cup of syrup)

    So as much as the objective, pragmatic, realistic part of my brain wants to put down my AT Guide Books and spreadsheets thinking "There's no way he comes back from this..." I know better.

    I can't say for certain that he's going to break the record. What I can say for certain is that the next 22 days are going to be one hell of a ride.

    Jenny Baker and her husband Franklin spent several days on two separate trips crewing for Harvey, ended one of her emails to the rest of the team with the following line which I just love (and am incredibly jealous that I didn't write) because it embodies Harvey and this journey so well:

    "It's really beautiful when someone takes the wisdom of the past and marries it with the reality of the present to create a unique adventure."”

  18. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by TravisRex View Post
    As Harvey has moved further along, the incredibleness (that's a word, right?) of what Joe did is becoming more and more apparent.
    I really don't believe it can be undersold. The only reason he didn't get every award, every ___ of the year, etc. is because the feat is so far outside what most people are familiar with that they don't understand how incredible it is.

    Quote Originally Posted by matthew.d.kirk View Post
    MThe more I ponder it, the more I think we’re nearing a tipping point (at least on the AT) where a “self-supported” bid (or some hybrid of crewed fast packing) is most advantageous.
    Hybrid:
    It's the best. Any limitations you can lift will benefit you. The year before my attempt I took notes of every single water source that was directly on trail and had room for a tent. If you have that kind of intimacy of the trail combined with a support van, you should be able to tailor every single day to almost the exact mileage you need while only having to actually carry the tarp/etc. on the days you need it. And only from the last time you see your crew to the first in the morning.
    It's really fun seeing the way the "sport" of FKT is evolving since sponsors have started getting involved. We're in the era of top athletes coming in but they're doing challenges they're unfamiliar with. There's still room for someone who really knows the trail to have advantages in logistics and strategy. And it's funny because top athletes all know that knowing a course makes it easier...
    I'm really excited for the first person to either take the time to learn a trail (never going to happen with the AT) or to actually have someone on their crew who isn't a friend but just knows the route intimately. Coaches in FKTs! Can you imagine?? "___ is going for the FKT and he's got ____ in his crew." I mean, using Harvey's background as an example, I would be very surprised if he were to say a Badwater CR should be attempted by someone who has never stepped foot on the course and whose crew has never done it either. In the future, the idea of going into these giant FKTs blind will seem silly.

    Quote Originally Posted by CalebJ View Post
    I feel like you really generated the inertia of self supported record breakthroughs over the last few years.
    Bannister:Track
    Kirk:AT

  19. #99
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    Also, shoutout to the Georgia Jewel.

  20. #100

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    Travis,

    Thanks for the great updates. I've really been enjoying following this, as I do all record attempts. Your first-person insight makes this attempt particularly interesting. I also appreciate you acknowledging what an absolutely amazing thing Stringbean did. He truly blew it out of the water on his hike.

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