Trail math for those who enjoy it...What I have left and the Time it will Take

[Gambit McCrae]

I started this on a 7 year plan. I am now into year 5 with 644 miles left from Upper Goose Pond Rd in Mass to Katahdin. No gaps in there*. So the following is my breakdown and thoughts on how to wrap this thing up.
The following is categorized by year and Vacation Days per Year

2018: 9 days of Vacation to be used during first 2 weeks of September (Sept 1st is a holiday)
-2 weeks starting at Upper Goose Pond Rd heading northbound planning on 15MPD with 2 zeros
Upper Goose Pond, MA to Dartmouth College, NH ~ 202 Miles

2019: 14 days of Vacation
-3 weeks Starting at the first 3 weeks of September at Dartmouth College (or wherever I end up at the end of 2018 trip but for budgetary reasons we will stick with Dartmouth College) Planning 12.7 MPD with 3 zeros
Dartmouth College, NH to Stratton, ME ~254 miles

2020: 15 Days of Vacation Available
188 Miles of trail left between Stratton, ME and Katahdin, ME
Planning for 12 MPD would be a 2 week trip with 2 zeros, but also leaving a buffer of 5 days available in case weather is not perfect for a summit day (After walking for 7 years, I want and am willing to wait a few days to summit on a great day and preferably a day during the week)

During my completion of 1500 AT miles my longest 2 trips have been 240 miles and 105 miles, at the end of my 240 mile trip, I had the desire and ability to keep going but was out of time. I look forward to these last completion trips of Map1 as since my 240 mile trip, I have seen a big change in how I hike physically and mentally so I hope to see that continue thru these last trips.

**Disclaimer** This thread is excluding the 115 miles of PA I have left as I am doing that this July 4th and is kind of irrelevant to the completion of the trail because it is the final gap I have left south of New England. Although I am not discussing that section in this thread, it is taking 4 of my vacation days to complete it this year which is why I only have an allotted 9 days in 18' instead of 13 days, every year I am given an extra day of vacation which allows me in 2019 to take 3 full weeks if I start the week of September 1st

[Koozy]

My initial thought is that your 2018 plan might be a tad ambitious; you might go slower in 2019 (through the hardest section of the trail); and that you don't need as much slack for the last section.


For 2018; based on 12 hiking days you're really looking at almost a 17 mile per hiking day average. Although this is the easier of the 3 sections you have left, 17 MPD through Vermont on fresh legs is ambitious.


For 2019; the three weeks through NH all the way to Stratton, ME seems over ambitious as well. This is the most difficult and (arguably) the most scenic part of the trail. During my NOBO thru hike I averaged 11 MPD through New Hampshire and southern Maine, and only took 2 zeros. Do not underestimate it. And with all the views and great landmarks, you may want to go slower anyways.


Now 2020: While Maine is difficult, it's the southern portion that is the worst; and IMHO, the last ~60 miles just before Katahdin are the easiest miles of the northernmost 500 miles of the trail. I averaged 16 MPD through central and northern Maine, but that figure is skewed since I had ~2,000-mile trail legs. But overall, Rangeley to Katahdin is much easier on the body than NH and southern Maine.


My thought is that maybe you lengthen the last section to start from Rangeley, which would increase your final section to 220 miles. I'd use that difference to reduce your 2019 miles. You'll thank yourself for the extra time in New Hampshire and Southern Maine; not only for the decreased required hiking pace, but for additional time spent on some of the best parts of the trail. That's if the logistics of using Rangeley as a start/stop point work just as well as Stratton. I think your 2018 plan is doable as long as you come conditioned.

[Gambit McCrae]

My initial thought is that your 2018 plan might be a tad ambitious; you might go slower in 2019 (through the hardest section of the trail); and that you don't need as much slack for the last section.


For 2018; based on 12 hiking days you're really looking at almost a 17 mile per hiking day average. Although this is the easier of the 3 sections you have left, 17 MPD through Vermont on fresh legs is ambitious.


For 2019; the three weeks through NH all the way to Stratton, ME seems over ambitious as well. This is the most difficult and (arguably) the most scenic part of the trail. During my NOBO thru hike I averaged 11 MPD through New Hampshire and southern Maine, and only took 2 zeros. Do not underestimate it. And with all the views and great landmarks, you may want to go slower anyways.


Now 2020: While Maine is difficult, it's the southern portion that is the worst; and IMHO, the last ~60 miles just before Katahdin are the easiest miles of the northernmost 500 miles of the trail. I averaged 16 MPD through central and northern Maine, but that figure is skewed since I had ~2,000-mile trail legs. But overall, Rangeley to Katahdin is much easier on the body than NH and southern Maine.


My thought is that maybe you lengthen the last section to start from Rangeley, which would increase your final section to 220 miles. I'd use that difference to reduce your 2019 miles. You'll thank yourself for the extra time in New Hampshire and Southern Maine; not only for the decreased required hiking pace, but for additional time spent on some of the best parts of the trail. That's if the logistics of using Rangeley as a start/stop point work just as well as Stratton. I think your 2018 plan is doable as long as you come conditioned.

Thank ya Koozy! Part of my projection is based on past performance. I averaged 18 miles thru CT, NY, NJ and have averaged 20 thru PA. I actively walk the AT about 2 trips a month in the south but I do understand that once at Dartmouth heading north I need to be prepared for a different trail then I am used to. In the end the plan is to stay on trail for the amount of time I have available and just get as far as I can for the time I have available. Logistics works well for me anywhere there is a nearby airport. I have saved the best for last, and I am really looking forward to it. I have unfinished business completing MA as that was my first "airport" hike and I started with a virus, did 50 miles in 3 days without eating and finally came off the trail at upper goose pond rd, so I am excited to get back up there and finish that last 50 miles or so up.

I owe a big thanks to whiteblaze in helping me thus far on my completion, not only have the members here helped me find answers but WB has given me a "coffee shop" kinda place that helps me get thru the monotony that a lot of my work days bring with it. Thanks to all

[peakbagger]

Better eat your Wheaties for 2019. The first few days north of Dartmouth will feel familiar as its quite similar to the stretch you will do this year after the Maine junction in VT. Its good choice to get your trail legs back in shape. Once you leave Glencliff all bets are off on daily mileage. It stays that way with until after Bemis in Maine (RT 17) with a one day easy stretch before coming out on RT 4 and then the mountains start again.

The logistics and spotty cell coverage get real interesting after you leave Gorham NH. The closest airport is the Portland Maine airport is and the only bus options are a hour plus from the trail in Maine. The folks in Andover run a lot of shuttles between RT 26 and RT17 so most of the road crossings in Western Maine get you back to Andover.

[rocketsocks]

Trail math

There’s 17 people in a shelter meant for 8, it’s pouring rain...how many more can fit?

[Gambit McCrae]

Trail math

There’s 17 people in a shelter meant for 8, it’s pouring rain...how many more can fit?

If I am at the shelter then at least 1 less then the total number of people because I will be in my tent! lol

[Rain Man]

I just completed those miles in the last year or two. I averaged about 15 mpd most trips before NH & ME. In NH & ME I was usually happy to average half that ... or less.

Of course your mileage may vary, quite literally, but don't hurt yourself out there for sake of ego nor armchair "trail math."

No matter, ENJOY!!!

[Berserker]

I'll chime in here and reiterate what Rainman said. You're on here a lot and have probably read all my posts on getting my arse handed to me in NH & ME so I won't rehash all that. My main advice would be to make sure you back off enough that you enjoy yourself and don't get hurt. The Whites and at least the first part of ME (I'm only 60 some miles in so far) are not typical trail walking, they are primarily rock scrambling with a little bouldering mixed in...it's very strenuous and very slow going...even if you are a young guy in shape.

[rocketsocks]

If I am at the shelter then at least 1 less then the total number of people because I will be in my tent! lol

Awnser; “There’s always room for one more”

[Alligator]

awnser; “there’s always room for one more”

▲+1=▲-1

qed

[rocketsocks]

▲+1=▲-1

qed

Anwser; the early morning walk of shame?