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  1. #1
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    Default 2018 SNOW - it shaping up to be a low snow year

    For those planning on a PCT hike in 2018

    Now that we are into Feb we are getting a firming up picture of what the snow situation is likely to be this year.

    Note this can change fast as there are often big storms in the spring, but as the article said, there has never been a year which got back to average from this deep of a deficit this late in the water year.

    For the newer folks (if this trend holds of course) it would imply that water sources in the south would be less than average, there would likely still be some snow on the tops of the high southern mtns (San Jacinto for ex) as there almost always is, etc. Still way to early to call the high passes north of Kennedy Meadows.

    Central Sierra moisture is very low and to date it is the 3rd driest on record. And it appears as if the entire SW is heading into another dry period. At my house in AZ we have had only 1/10 inch of moisture since early Oct and the temperatures all winter have been way above normal (going to be 85F in Phoenix this weekend).

    One can follow the Postholer and cdec links as the winter wans to have a current idea what is going on and to adjust plans accordingly. Cheers.

    https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/ca...anding-drought

    https://www.postholer.com/postholer/...we_current.png

    http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/p...s/PLOT_SWC.pdf

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    Magic 8 Ball says “Maybe”


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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    It's not too early to call the passes north of Kennedy Meadows. They'll have plenty of snow in June. It is too early to say it's a low snow year, it's only February. Even if it's below average, there'll still be plenty of snow in the Sierra Nevada.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gwschenk View Post
    It's not too early to call the passes north of Kennedy Meadows. They'll have plenty of snow in June. It is too early to say it's a low snow year, it's only February. Even if it's below average, there'll still be plenty of snow in the Sierra Nevada.
    Let's be serious please and add value.

    According to the data there has never been an average year from the point we are at now. That has meaning. We keep data for a reason.

    Yes there is always snow in the Sierra but what the snow is like changes wildly. And it 'is' way to early to call the passes north of Kennedy Meadows.

    A topic like this is started to have a place where data can be added as it comes in. There is no attempt for the first post to be the word.

    When you get some data add it in.

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    It is low enough that I just booked a Cottonwood Lakes permit for late June from which point I'll NOBO the JMT. My guess is that the snow will be mostly gone by then or, if not, it will be easily navigated. I could be wrong. If so I'll adapt or adjust.

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    The ignore list, it bleeds.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wyoming View Post
    Let's be serious please and add value.

    According to the data there has never been an average year from the point we are at now. That has meaning. We keep data for a reason.

    Yes there is always snow in the Sierra but what the snow is like changes wildly. And it 'is' way to early to call the passes north of Kennedy Meadows.

    A topic like this is started to have a place where data can be added as it comes in. There is no attempt for the first post to be the word.

    When you get some data add it in.
    well said, basically every passing week the picture firms up, and furthermore there is probably a modest, yet decent corelation with snow levels in early February and when the high passes clear in the summer. I'm generally very skeptical and conservative on projecting, but we're getting excited about the opportunity of a CT attempt in June, most years not feeasible (CO snowpack way low so far as well)

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    Quote Originally Posted by colorado_rob View Post
    well said, basically every passing week the picture firms up, and furthermore there is probably a modest, yet decent corelation with snow levels in early February and when the high passes clear in the summer. I'm generally very skeptical and conservative on projecting, but we're getting excited about the opportunity of a CT attempt in June, most years not feeasible (CO snowpack way low so far as well)
    You should load up the snow links for the CDT and make a post over there for this season.

    I am getting ready for another spin on the AZT at the end of the month to get in shape for an epic Grand Canyon hike a buddy and I are permitted for. And I am starting to get concerned about the heat. The whole winter in AZ has been way hotter than normal (85F tomorrow in Phoenix). And we have had squat for rain/snow this year also. The southern half is much harder in high heat and low water which is what I should expect at this point.

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    Registered User colorado_rob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wyoming View Post
    I am getting ready for another spin on the AZT at the end of the month to get in shape for an epic Grand Canyon hike a buddy and I are permitted for. And I am starting to get concerned about the heat. The whole winter in AZ has been way hotter than normal (85F tomorrow in Phoenix). And we have had squat for rain/snow this year also. The southern half is much harder in high heat and low water which is what I should expect at this point.
    We're heading to the GC tomorrow for a 5-day trip starting Monday... I just re-packed a bunch of stuff (or I should say un-packed!) should be in the high-80's for a high near the river every day, zero precip predicted, yikes, gonna be hot. Swapping out warm clothes for cans of beer. Hoping the Little Colorado is clear, meaning main river should be clearer than the normal "too thick to drink, too thin to plow".

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    Quote Originally Posted by colorado_rob View Post
    well said, basically every passing week the picture firms up, and furthermore there is probably a modest, yet decent corelation with snow levels in early February and when the high passes clear in the summer. I'm generally very skeptical and conservative on projecting, but we're getting excited about the opportunity of a CT attempt in June, most years not feeasible (CO snowpack way low so far as well)
    I'm planning both a JMT (NOBO) and CT (Durango-Denver) thru hike this summer and right now have the JMT scheduled for late June/early July and the CT for September. Didn't occur to me to think of the CT in June although that would be perfect for my schedule. These will both be repeat hikes for me, although for the CT I've haven't gone north/westbound. Since the CT requires no permits, maybe I'll keep my JMT permit and monitor the CT and make a decision closer to June.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coffee View Post
    I'm planning both a JMT (NOBO) and CT (Durango-Denver) thru hike this summer and right now have the JMT scheduled for late June/early July and the CT for September. Didn't occur to me to think of the CT in June although that would be perfect for my schedule. These will both be repeat hikes for me, although for the CT I've haven't gone north/westbound. Since the CT requires no permits, maybe I'll keep my JMT permit and monitor the CT and make a decision closer to June.
    just fwiw, September is my favorite month in Colorado, hands down. Spectacular weather usually, snow chances mid to late month, usually no big deal

    But then again, June is a fantastic month as well, generally pre monsoon, still have tstorms, but not as heavy as mid July thru August

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    Quote Originally Posted by colorado_rob View Post
    just fwiw, September is my favorite month in Colorado, hands down. Spectacular weather usually, snow chances mid to late month, usually no big deal
    But then again, June is a fantastic month as well, generally pre monsoon, still have tstorms, but not as heavy as mid July thru August
    One of my goals is to miss out on most of the nearly daily storms on my CT thru in August 2014. September sounds terrific. June could work too ... Good to have options.

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    A bit of perspective on snowfall year to year. From Ski Big Bear snow report:
    January 2017: 108”
    January 2018: 10”
    You don’t need to be a climatologist to understand the change.
    Wayne

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    Are there any recent updates on snow through San Jacinto?

  15. #15
    Registered User Venchka's Avatar
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    Check the Postholer snow graph. A couple days ago there were two specks of orange (snow) just north of Idyllwild. I think that it may have snowed since then.
    I also think that the best information would come from calling someone in Idyllwild.
    Good luck.
    Wayne

  16. #16

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    March has actually been pretty wet after a dry February and a somewhat lackluster January. It hasn't made up for the earlier deficit yet but it's been moving in the right direction. The storm coming in tomorrow (March 22) is suppose to be one of the biggest storms of the year. I suspect we will end up with a below average snow year, but not the really low levels of the pre-2017 drought years.

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    Registered User Venchka's Avatar
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    The figures I read a few days ago were ~46% to 48% of the April 1 average. That was after the Tahoe Basin got nearly 8’ of snow over 4 days last week.
    Not up to 2017, but every drop helps.
    Wayne

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    I’m starting Nobo at Campo on April 3. I’m just wondering what to expect at higher elevations in SoCal. I fly to San Diego on the 28th. I’m spending my last week pouring over the little details. I walked the Camino de Santiago 5 years ago but this is a much bigger undertaking. I lost 30 pounds on the Camino and I’ve kept it off by walking about 3000 miles a year every year since. I am in pretty good walking shape but I will need to get used to pack weight again. I’m hoping to leave home with a base weight of 16 pounds. I’m not sure if I’m crazy or not, I’m just looking to challenge myself once again. I will turn 65 while I’m on the trail, assuming I’m able to make it to my birthday in mid July. I hope to make it to Canada by mid to late Sept.

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    Looking out the window of the cube farm here, the San Gabriel high country is solid white and tonight dumps even more.

  20. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by notdeadyet View Post
    I’m starting Nobo at Campo on April 3. I’m just wondering what to expect at higher elevations in SoCal. I fly to San Diego on the 28th. I’m spending my last week pouring over the little details. I walked the Camino de Santiago 5 years ago but this is a much bigger undertaking. I lost 30 pounds on the Camino and I’ve kept it off by walking about 3000 miles a year every year since. I am in pretty good walking shape but I will need to get used to pack weight again. I’m hoping to leave home with a base weight of 16 pounds. I’m not sure if I’m crazy or not, I’m just looking to challenge myself once again. I will turn 65 while I’m on the trail, assuming I’m able to make it to my birthday in mid July. I hope to make it to Canada by mid to late Sept.
    I think the only sketchy part is San Jacinto / Fuller Ridge. Since the PCT doesn't go over the peak anyway, if it's bad you simply skip the summit. People have had some dramatically bad experiences on Fuller Ridge though. Best bet is to ask the locals when you get to Idy. Since you ought to already have at least spikes for the Sierra, and maybe an axe, ship those to yourself at Idy ahead, and then if you don't need them simply send them home.

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