The Numbers And The Odds

[rocketsocks]

In an attempt to avoid the idea of schadenfreude, I think it is strange watching the youtube hikers drop off so quickly this year. It is as if they feel the need to reach Mountain Crossings and say they are not part of the dropout rate only to drop out soon after. 2017 was the first time I was able to watch video of several hikers complete their hike from Springer to Katahdin each in a different way. It was inspiring to witness, but apparently this has spawned a new wave of unprepared hikers.

It is like the Bryson affect, but maybe worse. Any thoughts?

Partiers partyin’

[Singto]

The proportion of flip flop hikers to NOBO/SOBO hikers could impact the overall success rate as this group has at least double the success rate as those who NOBO or SOBO. If the proportion falls, the rate could go lower and vice versa if the proportion increases.

[Singto]

In an attempt to avoid the idea of schadenfreude, I think it is strange watching the youtube hikers drop off so quickly this year. It is as if they feel the need to reach Mountain Crossings and say they are not part of the dropout rate only to drop out soon after. 2017 was the first time I was able to watch video of several hikers complete their hike from Springer to Katahdin each in a different way. It was inspiring to witness, but apparently this has spawned a new wave of unprepared hikers.

It is like the Bryson affect, but maybe worse. Any thoughts?

I think the Georgia weather (fog and rain with no views) this year has had an impact on the hikers more than in the past.

[George]

hillbilly production is likely tied to other forcing variables.
.

ie: friendliness of cousins

[Emerson Bigills]

I suspect past drop out rates will persist again this year. There has been a bubble for quite a while now. Some folks love that social aspect. I think the folks who drop out in the first 50 miles probably really didn't belong out there to begin with. That may sound cruel, but the trail doesn't play favorites. Those folks can figure out what they lacked and try again next year. The most important thing is to stay healthy, but letting your mental focus wane and ability to enjoy what often becomes boring and repetitive, send some good hikers home. It's a long grind and you never know who is going to finish.

[El JP]

Thanks for helping make some sense out of an admittedly vague premise.

I'm almost tempted to call Mountain Crossing about a week before i go just to ask for their opinions on the drop out rate there this year. Great points above about equipment, videos, internet info etc. That's pretty much how i got things going and Whiteblaze made me make some radical changes in gear and planning.

Funny that cwinkle mentioned the Bryson Effect. Once i got the idea to do this i went out of my way to avoid the book until quite recently. I've seen the film trailer maybe twice. It would be nice to ask others up on Springer as to why they are hiking and how they are going about it but all things considered, it'll be much better to just set up camp and keep quiet.

[rickb]

I know this might be silly as all hell to people here but i'm pretty much wired into thinking of these things in terms of odds and percentages.

You know, I am now thinking you may be on to something.

The ATC’s numbers online for the past 8 years show an amazingly consistent rate of NOBO hikers that make it to Harper’s Ferry up — right around 50%. — up through 2015.

For 2016 and 2017 that number has dropped about 5 percentage points.

Not sure why, but seems significant.

[MuddyWaters]

You know, I am now thinking you may be on to something.

The ATC’s numbers online for the past 8 years show an amazingly consistent rate of NOBO hikers that make it to Harper’s Ferry up — right around 50%. — up through 2015.

For 2016 and 2017 that number has dropped about 5 percentage points.

Not sure why, but seems significant.

Ponder this:

There are people on here, and other places as well
With thousands to tens of thousands of miles under feet.

Their chances of completing any long hike, excepting some unforseen injury, approach 100%.

Why?
What's the difference between them.....and new attempters?

It's really simple. They actually enjoy it. Even alone. Nothing else they would rather do. Don't need support group to keep them on trail.

So what's the corrollary?

If you have a body that's is conditioned to hiking
Don't short yourself on time or money
Don't hike more than you can comfortably hike per day
And actually enjoy being out there

Your chances of success are extremely high

[nsherry61]

. . . hillbilly production is likely tied to other forcing variables. . .

ie: friendliness of cousins

Now be careful about generalizations. I live on the Boston south shore in a house that was built in 1766 by the eldest son of our nation's first Chief Justice (Cushing). One would think the opposite of a hillbilly. But, Mr Pickles Cushing (the guy that built our house) built our house the year he married his first wife who's maiden name was . . . are you ready . . . Ruth Cushing. Cousins? After 8 or 10 children, Ruth died. Guess what our town records show for the maiden name of his 2nd wife and mother to his second set of 8 or so children . . . you won't believe it . . . her maiden name of record was also Ruth Cushing!! Hmm. More cousins and maybe an older generation matron of note named Ruth that everyone named their daughters after?? I think there is more to hillbilly production just inbreeding. Heck look at the many generations of inbred European monarchy that we don't refer to as hillbillies, even if we should.

[Grampie]

http://www.appalachiantrail.org/home...tration-charts

After being absolutely wowed at the amount of thruhikers registered with the ATC, i began to wonder about the odds vs the traditional numbers. Being a Vegas type this kind of thing is sorta natural. Hell, if i would have been thinking a bit ahead i would have hustled up a few bets concerning my progress up the trail.

To be honest i'm having trouble trying to word this, but... For those that are really, really familiar with the AT, what do you figure on a successful thru hike this year? Especially with the mass that is heading out. We've all seen the usual 24 percent but with the sheer size of the bubble now the numbers have got to be skewed some. One thing that i'm thinking is that it will be rather stiff competition of sorts for limited shelter and tent sites in certain areas, especially the Smokies, until at the very least Damascus.

I know this might be silly as all hell to people here but i'm pretty much wired into thinking of these things in terms of odds and percentages. I've been curious about all this for some time but for one reason or another virtually every video or journal i checked out didn't really involve the bubble.

Apologies if i'm rambling as this would be a much easier question face to face.

I think that the % rate of those that finish the whole trail, i.e.. thru-hike, has probably stayed in the same range over the past 20 years or so. I believe using todays standards that more and more folks claim they thru-hiked even though they skipped sections or quit before the end has driven the published compleation % up. It's a millennial thing. "I went out, hiked some so now I'm a thru-hiker." I have met several.

[nsherry61]

. . . more folks claim they thru-hiked even though they skipped sections or quit before the end has driven the published compleation % up. It's a millennial thing. . .

I don't know. There have been debates since the very beginning about people skipping sections and what counts or doesn't. And I really mean the beginning, starting with Earl Shaffer.

[soilman]

Well the numbers definitely are up. I read on Trail Journals that a hiker started today and was number 369 at Amicalola. Tomorrow 50 are registered to start. There are more people registered to date than the total number of reported complete hikes in the 1980's. The number of hikers registered this year almost equal the total number of hikers who completed the trail from 1930 to 1990.

[tawa]

Well the numbers definitely are up. I read on Trail Journals that a hiker started today and was number 369 at Amicalola. Tomorrow 50 are registered to start. There are more people registered to date than the total number of reported complete hikes in the 1980's. The number of hikers registered this year almost equal the total number of hikers who completed the trail from 1930 to 1990.

Wish them the best but understand from folks down around Springer that they are getting pounded with daily rains, swollen creeks and more on the way.
Welcome to the AT!

[Pony]

It's those stupid signs that make people quit. I was at Newfound Gap over the weekend and saw the sign that said 1972 miles to Katahdin. Made me wonder why the hell anyone would keep going.

[Slo-go'en]

I'm thinking of getting a clicker so I can keep track of how many NOBO's I pass by in Virginia as I go SOBO from HF.