So, I'm doing a little study for my own purposes, that I'll share if the results make any sense and seem to be useful....
As input for this little study, I'm using the start date bar chart for 2017 published on the ATC site:
http://www.appalachiantrail.org/imag...n.jpg?sfvrsn=0
And elsewhere on the ATC site they quote that an estimated 3839 hikers started NOBO in 2017. Yikes! I believe that estimate, because I'm re-hiking the AT with my wife and it sure was a zoo in March last year.
Anyway, if one adds up the total starters in the ATC bar chart, which covers Feb 1 to June 1, the number is about 1352 (I digitized the start numbers by date and summed in Excel). Obviously, the 1352 number and bar chart is based on folks who actually registered, and it is not at all surprising that well less than half are represented.
So the estimated start number is 3839, divided by the registered number of 1352, yields a factor of roughly 2.8. I assume some of the 3839 estimated are outside of the Feb 1-June 1 bar-chart window, but probably not too many, percentage wise, start a thru before Feb 1 or after June 1.
So, my basic question: If I wanted to create a bar chart that reasonably reflects stats on the total number of 3839 starters, should I simply factor the bar chart up by this 2.8 factor? I'd probably use a slightly lower factor to account for very early or very late starters....
This bar chart is key to my little study, and I do realize my results are going to be rough estimates, but I don't want to start with something totally hokey...
There are some extreme data points.... for example, on March 1st, there were 36 registered starters. Factoring by, say, 2.7, means I estimate that 97 people started NOBO last March 1st.
Is this all reasonable?
Thanks in advance for any insights.