Stringbean and Camps

[Rmcpeak]

About the problem with my dates on Bean's hike... Those are not the date hiked --- I don't know exactly what his hike dates are. Those are the dates of the Instagram posts which I had pre-filled. Obviously those dates are off --- I don't think you can post from the future yet, but I'm sure it's coming....

I'll straighten out the dates at some points....

[Rmcpeak]

This is better....

35	8/22/17	54.6	1743.4	1,392.90	350.50	to Norwich, VT (Instagrammed as day 36)????
36	8/23/17	42.2	1785.6	1,420.20	365.40	NO DAY 35 POST on INSTAGRAM ???????
37	8/24/17	42.2	1827.8	1,466.40	361.40	to Liberty Springs
38	8/25/17	25.1	1852.9	1,515.60	337.30	to Saco River
39		21.9	1874.8	1,560.80	314.00	not reported on Instagram - Estimated ??????
40		21.9	1896.7	1,587.50	309.20	not reported on Instagram - Estimated ??????
41		21.9	1918.6	1,619.70	298.90	not reported on Instagram - Estimated ??????
42	8/27/17	41.9	1960.5	1,686.00	274.50	1918.6 E end of Mahoosic Notch to Spurce Mountain

[Rmcpeak]

He did say in a post to Instagram yesterday, 8/27/2017, that it was Day 41 of his hike. If 8/27/17 is in fact his Day 41, then there's a day missing in my sheet. But who knows, that post may have originated on 8/26 and not posted until yesterday....

To be clear: I've watched this guy as closely as anybody other than his Dad probably, and I think he's legit. The proof will be in the pudding though.

[Rmcpeak]

Oh, and to answer your actual question Bill (sorry, I get excited), if I give him his average for the remaining days, he comes in at about 46.5 days which in my model works out to 325 miles ahead of Anish. I didn't include Speedgoat in my analysis. Just didn't think it could be possible. DISCLAIMER: MY SHEET IS A HACK AMATEUR ANALYSIS AND SHOULD BE TREATED AS SUCH!

36	8/23/17	42.2	1785.6	1,420.20	365.40
37	8/24/17	42.2	1827.8	1,466.40	361.40
38	8/25/17	25.1	1852.9	1,515.60	337.30
39		21.9	1874.8	1,560.80	314.00
40		21.9	1896.7	1,587.50	309.20
41		21.9	1918.6	1,619.70	298.90
42	8/27/17	41.9	1960.5	1,686.00	274.50
43		46.68	2007.18	1,717.70	289.48
44		46.68	2053.86	1,758.20	295.66
45		46.68	2100.54	1,794.70	305.84
46		46.68	2147.22	1,841.90	305.32
47		46.68	2193.9	1,868.70	325.20

[matthew.d.kirk]

Awesome work, Rmcpeak, thank you!

[Just Bill]

Yar, you're doing fine. We'll know soon enough, just trying to see if you had seen something I missed.

running things on my end... Karl's last 6 was a 44.7 average. On fresh legs after a tune up.
I can't see Joe pulling that mileage off at this point. Part of me hopes Joe understands that too.

That said; sub 50 is unreal, beating Karl is a near impossible dream.
Just trying to wrap my head around it. An amazing effort no matter how it shakes out.

[ARambler]

Thought this was worth reposting -- Stringbean's most recent Instagram:

• thestring.beanRECORD UPDATE: My location is revealed!! I am in Maine with 270 miles remaining on day 41. For a quick update, I got wrecked by the Whites. Blown up knees, quads, hammy, the works. I had 3 falls were I landed on part of my face, luckily to be safe there. I ran 1500' down a mountain. It wasn't on the AT so I lost 3 hours. This section puts my hopes in jeopardy, I'll need to average 45 mpd from here on out to break the record, and southern Maine is regarded near as difficult as the whites. Time to carry on!! Now is when I start to make the big push, and I believe I can still finish in under 45 days!! At the very least, this recent spat let me have more time in the Whites, which resulted in a spiritual sunrise experience on Mt Mooselac, a beautiful and solitary (I didn't see another soul) run over Franconia Ridge, the Presis were 🔥, and loads of support from @kekiracofe who helped me get through some really low moments, as well as loving texts from friends and family. Thank you all! It is still a good day to be alive! Look at previous posts for more deets on the Whites.

If SB actually started on July 19, 41 days would be Aug 29 (12 in July 29 in Aug.) So he started earlier and was actually at Speck Pond ca yesterday on day 41. Karl's mark falls before Aug 31 (5 days from yesterday), and 50 days would be Sept 4. Am I missing a toe?

[chknfngrs]

Not sure we'll see any updates from the bean until he finishes, right?! Amazing hike/run no doubt about it, questions but at least it's clearer and remember waypoints being sent to the FKT "judge" Bakwin....... seriously the best show on tv this summer is right here, watching the Appalachian Trail FKTs

[chknfngrs]

both flash and String Bean getting such high marks from those that went before its so cool to see. tight knit support group of epic proportion.

[Chair-man]

If SB actually started on July 19, 41 days would be Aug 29 (12 in July 29 in Aug.) So he started earlier and was actually at Speck Pond ca yesterday on day 41. Karl's mark falls before Aug 31 (5 days from yesterday), and 50 days would be Sept 4. Am I missing a toe?

This article in the Boston Globe the other day says he started on July 17 (which sounds right to me). So, assuming SB started at 6am on 7/17 and you add Karl Meltzer's record time of 45d 22h 38m you'll see that SB has till Friday Sept 1st at 4:38am to reach the Big K sign to break Karl's record.

Who knows where he is now. Hope we get an update before he's done.

[jeremywerlin]

Holy shizzit!

[Just Bill]

Stringbean 82817.pdf

Either he slipped a day or he started on 7/16... unless I did this wrong.
Going by the cells in Blue when he 'came out' live. Doesn't really change anything but the expiration date on Karl's time (orange).
It is possible given Karl's time being just shy of 46 full days that Joe would have until the following morning... basically midnight on day 46+ his start time.

actual schedule notwithstanding...
I plugged in some red numbers at the bottom.
An optimistic 40MPD would put him well into day 48.
Karl pulled a 44.7 at his start (the fastest time for that section) so I put that into the insty feed which still puts him at 48 days, perhaps a hair under with the actual starting hour factored in.

Anything under 50 is pretty unbelievable. It's possible to match Karl's time unsupported given what we've seen from each Joe... but doesn't look to me like this Joe has any possibility of sub 46. I would be highly shocked to hear he somehow pulled a faster time than Karl at the end here given his reported condition. Karl wasn't easing into the hike, he went out and tuned up/rehearsed this section prior to his start and waited for ideal conditions. Going SOBO this is one of the few spots up North you could 'steal' a day before you hit the worst of it. Karl did about as good as you can do.

Not trying to be a party pooper here- Joe has described multiple injuries, falls, and his once perfectly clean insty posts are reflecting the mental toll this takes on you. Smelling the barn will hopefully pull him through but it looks unreasonable to pull off a miracle here. He'd need 58 mpd average... I'm not sure anyone has pulled a single 58 on this stretch.

8/27/2017	41	65.7	1918.6
8/28/2017	42	41.9	1960.5
8/29/2017	43	58	2018.5
8/30/2017	44	58	2076.5
8/31/2017	45	58	2134.5
9/1/2017	46	58	2192.5

Here's Jurek's finish... probably a fair enough comparison.
36 NH 25A 46.737 Galehead Hut 48.538 Mizpah Spring Hut 21.139 Imp Shelter 32.740 Full Goose Shelter 29.441 South Arm Rd. 30.142 Spaulding Mtn. Leanto 45.143 Main Logging Rd. 41.944 ME 15 Monson) 45.345 near Little Boardman Mtn. 48.846 Abol Bridge 50.646.38194 Katahdin 15.1

[Just Bill]

36 NH 25A 46.7
37 Galehead Hut 48.5
38 Mizpah Spring Hut 21.1
39 Imp Shelter 32.7
40 Full Goose Shelter 29.4
41 South Arm Rd. 30.1
42 Spaulding Mtn. Leanto 45.1
43 Main Logging Rd. 41.9
44 ME 15 Monson) 45.3
45 near Little Boardman Mtn. 48.8
46 Abol Bridge 50.6
46.38194 Katahdin 15.1

Or try that for Jurek for a less blobby paste job. Time to renew my donation it appears.

[ARambler]

Either he slipped a day or he started on 7/16... unless I did this wrong.
Going by the cells in Blue when he 'came out' live. Doesn't really change anything but the expiration date on Karl's time (orange).
It is possible given Karl's time being just shy of 46 full days that Joe would have until the following morning... basically midnight on day 46+ his start time.

I agree with the early morning of Sept 1. I agree with July 17 start.
I think his Instagram post would only have been delayed to August 28 from Aug 26 with a consistent 2 day delay.
I'm not following JB's details, and point out that his "Mapman spreadsheets" were way too pessimistic, but I agree that the overall fkt is a stretch+.

[Captain Blue]

I'm pretty sure that I saw Joe "Stringbean" McConaughy on July 25 near Jones Falls. This would be day 9 in the current version of the spreadsheet with the night's destination listed as "to "Near Watauga Lake". Except the current date is listed as July 27.

I was on a section hike from Springer to Mount Rogers HQ. That day a very thin fellow came running up behind me and scared the crap out of me when he said "hello". This fellow was clearly packing lightly and doing high mile days. We chatted a bit. I asked my usual questions like "how long are out for? and where are you going?" I only received vague answers before he picked up the pace and ran out of sight. I do recall this fellow had dual water bottles fastened to his pack shoulder straps both with Sawyer mini-squeeze filters attached.

[Just Bill]

I agree with the early morning of Sept 1. I agree with July 17 start.
I think his Instagram post would only have been delayed to August 28 from Aug 26 with a consistent 2 day delay.
I'm not following JB's details, and point out that his "Mapman spreadsheets" were way too pessimistic, but I agree that the overall fkt is a stretch+.

A two day delay would make sense- but doesn't fit. Not that big a deal at the moment though as that's easily cleared up when the time comes. I could probably just Email Peter and get the official at this point now that Joe has spilled his own beans on his location... but that's no fun and mildly sketchy.

All I did was put the two timelines side by side and they don't sync up unless you slide his delay from 2 days to three or there is another problem I'm not seeing.

This isn't one of my fancy sheets, lol.
Bout the only real thunkin going on is that I have Jurek, Jen, Meltzer, Knotts, Kirk, and Camps actual times.
Karl has done the best of anyone in real life (not in an estimation).

As discussed before, lineal pace doesn't work. Some parts of the trail are harder than others. So even figuring the best time out of all the times we have... doesn't seem reasonable.

On that stretch of trail there is literally one day- the 60 mile stretch including Katahdin and the flats south of it that you could consider 'fast'. Joey and I talked about trying to pop it but he couldn't pull it off either. Karl came the closest. Everything else is 2.25-2.5mph trail... even for the best ever.
Jurek basically didn't sleep and clocked 2.08 MPH on his last two full days.

Not that Joe couldn't be the new 'best ever' here... but the natural speed limits are what make the AT interesting to say the least.

You set the record down south, you survive the north. Don't matter which direction you're going really.

Here's Jen's sheet- https://1drv.ms/b/s!Apygyt54yYPwgukaH5PAPliGRnIey

What was meticulously interesting with Brew was that he also recorded Jen's start and stop time. So you can then actually get her moving MPH in various sections of the trail.
Nothing real fancy about it... A race car has to slow down for turns and speeds up in straightaways. That's basically how the AT works... some spots are fast, some a slow.
If you want to do well- you figure out where the straightaways are and hit the gas. When it's a slow stretch you save the gas in the tank and take what the trail gives you. Or hit the turn at full speed and wreck.
That's why trying this on a linear pace is a bad move. Can't say for sure that Karl's first two were done that way...but I know on his third trip he ghosted Jen and followed her blueprint. He also correctly identified the few spots Jen had trouble and did improve on them... unfortunately he had his own trouble but still hung on.

Coincidentally... Jen's hike matches with about 95% accurate to my fancy sheet... but that's not really relevant it just turns out I'm severely conceited and needed to toss that in

[Just Bill]

I'm pretty sure that I saw Joe "Stringbean" McConaughy on July 25 near Jones Falls. This would be day 9 in the current version of the spreadsheet with the night's destination listed as "to "Near Watauga Lake". Except the current date is listed as July 27.

I was on a section hike from Springer to Mount Rogers HQ. That day a very thin fellow came running up behind me and scared the crap out of me when he said "hello". This fellow was clearly packing lightly and doing high mile days. We chatted a bit. I asked my usual questions like "how long are out for? and where are you going?" I only received vague answers before he picked up the pace and ran out of sight. I do recall this fellow had dual water bottles fastened to his pack shoulder straps both with Sawyer mini-squeeze filters attached.

HMM... we could have a 'Day Zero' problem then... but this isn't Joe's first FKT so would be weird. It's possible Joe's day 1 on insty is actually his first day on the trail.

That would line up the dates but cause different problems...

Either way thanks for chiming in.

[Rmcpeak]

I crossed paths with Stringbean on Monday, July 24 about 4 miles north of Uncle Johnny's. That'd be a two day delay from the Instagram post for that section/day of his hike.

[Just Bill]

So if I put him on a 7/16 day zero... then the two sightings above line up and so does the day 41/42 'live' posts.
That would make sense relative the article chairman posted... if they were being kind and he was being smart... he'd have them publish the wrong date to keep the delay going.
Puts a hole in his insty feed but we already know something broke down there it seems. Might be as simple as him realizing he messed it up (lost track of his delay) and just went live to catch up. Looks like a solid 2 day delay pattern right up until things broke down. I would not be surprised at all to hear he had a day below 20 in there.

Doing these solo people get lost in space pretty easy, especially at the end. Gets hard to follow along fer the big finish unless you run numbers alongside em.
More or less in the same boat- 8/31 or likely morning of 9/1 depending on start time fer Karl.
Hope somebody in his camp is running numbers for him... Joey was going for gold and got hurt two full days and change ahead of Matt's record at the time. It can happen so easily up there.
With Karl out of reach I'd be telling him to pace himself, hold it down and be careful. He could "drop back" to 35's and put up a sub 50. I say drop back in quotes because that's still pretty stout miles for a nobo in the shape he says he's in. I'm sure he's feeling Joey pressure in the back of his mind but better to finish intact than race an imaginary time that may never come... anyone following Joey on insty can see he's got his own problems too. Course seeing folks battle to their limits like this is part of the deal... three years ago Matt was trying to see if the legend of Ward and sub-60 was possible. Sub 50 is a huge leap!

Wild performance for sure!

[matthew.d.kirk]

Sub 50 is a huge leap!

You can say that again! These numbers are beyond amazing! No words.