Quote Originally Posted by Just Bill View Post
Simple math on it- about 20 days even to make up 120 miles- he's looking mid to upper 50's average to pull it out.
http://www.animaps.com/pb/416150002/...ash_unofficial
In another thread, I was joking about how the difference (in minutes) of Joe's posted finish time could affect the outcome (it's since changed to 45d12h15m on his Instagram). If Joey's health improves, if thousands of other factors play in his favor, could it be that close? Rough numbers show Joey about 3.5 days behind and under 1000 miles to go:
~milepost ~hour diff.
272 +17
353 +24.5
446 +9.5
609 +24.5
826 +55
1057 +84
1211 +85
Joe could very well be out of reach at this point, but the dramatic fluctuations in time (above) show that it may not be over just yet. Joey is about to enter the section of trail where Joe was hurt. As is the disadvantage of any predecessor: Joe's performance down south is locked in time, like a target in a firing range (albeit a fast moving one).