Yes, tracking was an issue for this hike.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...?embedded=true
He posted more verification than Anish by a long shot. So, until someone finds something fishy I think his claim to the FKT is every bit as valid as the current record holder.
The AT 2017 page on FaceSpace is explosive right now.
Doesn't the spot data situation seem a little fishy? anish posted her spot data which seems more reliable, she was able to keep up with the batteries situation.Originally Posted by Violent Green
Did she? I thought her SPOT data was never made available (though at one point she was working with Matt Kirk to get that taken care of).
In the absence of Knotts spot he uses FaceSpace to document, which should suffice, no?
Just getting back from 4 blissful days with no internet...
My quick take-
GPS verification is required now per Peter Bakwin/FKT. That said- I won't call his GPS issues nefarious- but they are a problem. He went a long time before making an effort to correct the problem and between his replacement spot and phone replacement at Salisbury not working out... he basically went dark for the critical part of his hike.
During the Ninja debates I advocated for her "style" of hike being possible... perhaps even ideal. That said though it is a very difficult style to access as it results in some unbelievable daily numbers as even the notion of days falls apart when you are hiking until you drop... crashing until you wake up... and going again. So on the surface there are some very odd splits that jumped out upon a quick look.
I skimmed it and there are some BIG days. Day 16-23 jumped out (Shenandoah section where Ninja had her issues.) He did a 75 mile stretch over two days (16/17) then a 53, 44, a 76 (20-21), a 37 and a 46 into bears den (Northern end of shennies section.)
But that's 1033 (day 23)-702 (day 16) for 331 miles. 47.28 MPD if I did that right. Which is reasonable. One day is moving, then next is crashing with some movement... and in that week a single massive push. There is no pacing, no strategy, no real plan... just go.
That's a quick example of what I mean with the dramatic numbers from that hike til you drop style. A 76 seems totally unreasonable on it's face- but the overall section average seems reasonable. With all the waysides and re-fuel spots he could have easily been doing one full day or less of food carried.... so pack weight isn't that big of a factor and the trail is conducive to this type of travel.
However I also posted previously that his final 300 mile stretch did not seem reasonable. A zombie walk death march ala Jurek might have done it. But again- he basically went dark on that critical section. And based upon his pace I found the social media posts and finish time seemed off by a day or so. I had it in my head (with limited knowledge) that he should have been done a day earlier. Others told me he had a day more but now that it's done some of those questions need to be cleared up.
Knotts claim should not be automatically accepted- In general I don't think anyone's claim is anything more than a claim until verified.
He did not use GPS verification. He made statements about testing and working on getting it working but failed to do so or correct the issue quickly.
He had some additional documentation issues.
He is making a very big claim in an unusual style that will require some very careful review.
I did not follow this hike very closely as it seemed unlikely to succeed. In addition when popping in I did notice many of his pings that did go through posting near road crossings and trail heads. That is not an accusation of cheating. A poorly working spot would be more likely to ping properly at those locations. However it is an example of a serious question and issue that would need to be explained satisfactorily in defending the claim. The choice to not address the GPS issue overall is a problem for me as I would have personally freaked out if I saw my first week of tracking wasn't working. But not knowing the details it's hard to say that there may not be a reasonable explanation or that more traditional methods of documentation wouldn't clear it up.
But there are clear problems.
Knotts claim should not be automatically dismissed.
He very much strikes me as an honest person and quickly posted this trip report that appears honest, open, with nothing to hide goes a long way in my book.
Again- this appears to be a balls to the wall hike by a guy who's been on trial for a good couple years. Currently active LD hikers are familiar with him and while he's not a traditional FKT participant he is very much a HIKER.
He is a triple crown hiker who is coming up on a double triple crown/calendar year triple crown. Even if the dreaded FKT wasn't in play- he has put up enough miles on trail that he deserves respect and serious consideration. While we have debated the hiker vs runner stuff I do still believe that the terrain and access on the AT creates a bit of a special circumstance where the line is very blurry and this hike is an example of that hybrid.
Ninja's hike was problematic for many because that style is possible. For a non ultra runner/pure hiker it's been my opinion that it is the only realistic style. Unlike Ninja- Knotts has (upon quick glance) the type of dirtbag hiker trash attitude, skillset and experience to pull this off. However as mentioned it is a very difficult hike to review and even to document as it's basically one long brutal day. That uncertainty shows in Dan's initial report but to me rings as sincerity and correctly for this type of trip. When a 'day' is really a period of 24 hours or so of movement interspersed with some cat naps and every other day crashes it's really hard to 'call it' day by day as your mind things in terms of resupplies or sleeps rather than where you were at XX:XX on day XX.
If interested in pursing this further-
Dan mentioned recovering his okay messages. Much like Matt Kirk rebuilt large portions of Heather's track for her, I suspect there might be some sort of functional GPS track that could be compiled between Dan and Trackleaders. I would think they have a vested interest in making the best of this hike on the very high profile AT. I would like to see that track map with the valid pings he did get, along with any supplemental information that could be gathered such as okay messages.
His trip report should be converted to a more traditional split sheet- then the photos and other traditional documentation he has should be matched to it.
Much like Matt he has some frequent video updates, he has lots of photos. It appears from his activity in recent years he also knows many fellow hikers who could be called up for witnesses.
I'm more than willing to forgive the GPS issue. I don't fully believe in a self supported hike in the woods having to rely on modern tech as the final word. A hiker going nuts to see what can be done is what it's all about... but you still need a complete set of documentation for the record.
Overall-
Matt Kirk laid out a 'perfect' FKT as far as documentation standards.
To put it bluntly- Heather trashed that blueprint and provided next to nothing but her name as proof.
Ninja tried to pull one off and thankfully it was an easy hike to bust.
The simple lesson learned though-
Do things like Matt, and you'll have less trouble. Back them up with GPS and you're probably bullet proof in your claim.
No FKT of this size or magnitude should simply be accepted on your word or by making a social media post regardless of who you are.
Unfortunately abuse of the honesty system has brought us to the point that nobody can make a claim without review.
Dan strikes me as honest, open, and having integrity. I am inclined to believe his effort is sincere and he might have just done something pretty amazing.
I'm personally inclined to believe Knott's claim.
So a huge congrats to Dan 'Knotts' Binde on a monster hike, tremendous effort, and extraordinary level of toughness pushing through that foot injury.
But it's not personal.
It's a record and requires verification and scrutiny.
It seems fair to announce one's time and potential FKT- but until verified it's nothing more than a hike and a social media post.
When the dust settles and a full report is ready I would be happy to fully and honestly review it in hopes of verifying this claim.
Even if further efforts this season do surpass this effort- it's worth taking the time to acknowledge this achievement regardless as if it holds up it is very impressive for many reasons.
Last edited by Just Bill; 07-25-2017 at 11:38.
I don't buy the whole hike till you drop explaining a 76 mile day. Until there is solid documentation then this is suspect. Can it be done, sure. Can it be done as a regular strategy on an FKT, I doubt it.
enemy of unnecessary but innovative trail invention gadgetry
I'm skeptical too, but just to be devil's advocate. If a day is 24 hours, then I could see hiking 3.5 mph for 20 out of 24 hours or something like that... that'd be 70 miles... doable. Insane, fast, but possible. Don't think of "days," think of 24-hour periods. Night/day/sleep/awake morph on an FKT (or even just a PFKT like I do -- 50 miles in 48hrs, that sort of thing)...
hmmmm. Very interesting indeed. excellent analysis. Now I seem to understand need for GPS. 76 seems... dunno. I believe, too, the benefit of the doubt but prove this already
Agree. What I saw of Knott's nearly absent tracking suggested he couldnt keep the pace necessary for this. 2-2.25mph means at least 34 hours of hiking for 76 miles, and that assumes zero stops for any reason.
Yar- the romantic in me wants to believe in that 'storyline'...
But the non-liar practical side of me took that day in particular as a wake up slap.... and that was a very quick skim.
I don't have time this week to mess with it much- but if I did I'd take that trip report and convert it to a cleaner spreadsheet and try to look day by day and section by section at what makes sense.
Could you blur a 36-72 hour stretch of walking and napping and have it show up very poorly trying to turn it back into 24 blocks of time- for sure.
The reason folks don't like this much is that going in fits and starts really doesn't show up well on your daily averages... so why not simply hike consistently?
But (on my scale) this is basically how I approach this stuff personally so I understand it as possible- but that doesn't mean at all that it is probable.
I'm not fast or consistent... I have bursts of effortless day-dreamy cruising and horrible stretches of crap hiking. I don't sleep much nor do I have "days" with consistent starts and stops that make sense.
I don't have an FKT either and that style is not common or very wise.
So yar- this claim is an uphill battle either way for several reasons.
I do a lot of 50+ mile days, four of them in the last couple of months and agree that a day isn't a day as far as the sun is concerned. BUT, you have to do it the next day as well, so if a day end at 5 am, the next day will suffer which is why most of the FKT attempts maintain fairly consistent days.
enemy of unnecessary but innovative trail invention gadgetry
yar... I'm with you 100%. Mine were 40's (now I'm a fat desk jockey again) but same 'hours per day' type efforts and back to back type training we've discussed before. I hike at 2 MPH basically. But when I'm in the zone I've hit 4mph for several hours at a crack and held 3+ MPH for a few days BUT...
That 76 jumped hard... the section average wasn't awful though. And on very quick skim- he is posting up those dramatic ups and downs when you blow your wad setting a PR... but it's rarely a sustainable day either.
Exactly like you say- no point in doing a 50 and a 30 when you could do two 40's for most. It's dumb really and hardly anyone does it. But I understand it... because it's my style and it's not a good one.
So other than that bit of personal wish to see it succeed generally speaking it's not practical and requires a pretty involved/complicated effort to evaluate it on top of that.
His trip report above is like reading a word problem rather than a math one... so I'd put it into excel format rather than as a word type document next to read the numbers more clearly.
That stretch there... 44/76/37... 157/3= 52.33 is big but consistent with what you'd need to be putting up.
He put up a 62 to start the hike... but then followed with a 31.3 for a 45 mpd average. Then followed up with a 43.4 into NOC.
Again- I'm quickly skimming but those are the few things I saw.
It's my style, so it jumps out.
I saw the "consistent inconsistency" that makes sense...
I see section averages that roughly work.
I see some explosion and recovery I'd expect to see and other than the 76 I didn't see any monster days early that were totally impossible for the terrain.
The nitty gritty of drilling it down though would be next.
And I have not looked at all at the finish... which seemed dubious at best when I did some quick back of napkin looks from his FB posts.
All I'm saying is it is quite possible. Not that it happened. It will need to be looked at in relation to that style to see it fairly... it won't look like other hikes by the numbers.
To be blunt- there's at least one Joe going and maybe another.
I'm personally slammed and if I have any free time it will go to at least one fella named Joe.
So I'm inclined to let the season wrap up before we all bother hashing out what happened.
In the meantime Knotts should hold his head high and put together his claim if he wants to. There is not enough here to simply call it good- so yar if you wanted to be formal about it I'll call it disputed but I don't think we need to go there this second either.
But is he still rocking through a calendar year triple?
I'm a bit confused on that and if so... props to him and I would agree that is his bigger priority to sort out rather than this. So it may be something that Dan needs to set aside for now as well.
It's worth sorting out to recognize his effort either way- but there is a coin-flip chance this time will fall before the leaves.
My experience agrees with this too. I've done a couple of 40 mile days and a lot of 30 mile days but can not sustain more than a couple in a row. Somewhere in this forum is the suggestion that 70% of max per day is what a long distance fast hiker should aim for if they hope to sustain. Seems like a pretty good rule of thumb. The body needs rest. No way around it.
Also-
The dude is clearly a hiker. Even if this was totally ridiculous... which it's not.
He has my respect and reservation of any judgment until a complete review takes place.
No matter how it shakes out this was a monster hike. No matter what happens in FKT land;
In hiker land a triple crown and a calendar year triple are still very big deals and even if he isn't permanently up on the list with Kirk, Anish, Camps, etc.... he still in rare company alongside some pretty serious names regardless.
Somewhere in this forum you might find a fella who posted the 80% rule and that there 70% guideline.
I might know that fella come to think on it.
Gizmos can fail. It's happened to the best of us. I'm sorry for this guy's bad luck with the tech. A couple things I've learned about transparency, though: 1. where there's a will to record and share info, there's a way; and 2. the more open you are on the front end, the less work you have to do on the back end (unless you get a pass, of course).
For example: I didn't carry a tracker, but by the time I got to Springer, this forum had my splits graphed up in a spreadsheet, thanks to 30-60 second vids via a flip phone. With improving technology, we might expect transparency of FKTs to match if not exceed that of previous efforts, but that hasn't always been the case.
See post #11. The map I linked there wasn't shared until about a year after Anish's finish, long after the FKT community had accepted her accomplishment based on a relatively obscure documentation strategy, similar in fact to the one employed by Ninja, now by Knotts. The court of public opinion can be a fickle mistress. We'll see how this one plays out...
Sorry, I completely missed #11 the first time I read through this. Thanks for reminding me.
Thanks for updating everyone Rambler. Soooo many emotions thru the extreme last 2 weeks. If you have any questions,,,I'm on fb, might check here every once and awhile.
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