Page 1 of 4 1 2 3 4 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 76

Thread: Knotts AT FKT

  1. #1
    Registered User
    Join Date
    01-17-2005
    Location
    Ambler, PA
    Posts
    591
    Images
    5

    Default Knotts AT FKT

    Knotts is nearing the NY/CT border and is trying to make Salisbury before the PO closes (presumably Friday but thy are open Sat).
    This will be 35 days, or 42.8 mi/day. Assuming 40 mi/day to Katahdin, for 690 mi that will be 17.2 more days or 52 + days total.

    He is having typical feet problems and the hardest terrain ahead, so it's too early to predict accurately, but clearly he is a serious contender.

    Knotts had a few goals this year. He started out hiking on the CDT and PCT with the idea of going back and hiking a calendar year triple crown. He also planned to go out a fast as possible and challenge the overall (supported) FKT, which is clearly out of the picture. He has always given priority to the unsupported fkt. I don't think the other goals will distract him, but a poorly planned resupply could be blamed on too much going on.

  2. #2
    Registered User Just Bill's Avatar
    Join Date
    07-06-2013
    Location
    Chicago, Il
    Age
    40
    Posts
    3,719

    Default

    I got him at 2.5 days behind if your 42.8 is close enough. In the ballpark with a good stretch from maine junction north... but running a linear average of 40 MPD ain't happening. Anything is possible but if you're going NOBO you set the record before you reach Maine Junction IMO... and then just hold on for dear life. 46 MPD average is what you are shooting for... even beast mode nobody nails the north end. Karl did the best up north and averaged 42.7 from big K to Wallingford and 32 miles ahead of JPD... he paid for it later... Jen averaged just under 40MPD through there. Matt wisely backed off a bit and did well. Joey famously got hurt and had to get an x-ray... but he was flying, lol.
    https://1drv.ms/b/s!Apygyt54yYPwg5M64SjWFvP78JxByw

    Here's an old graphic from when Joey went the first time- with Map Man's data, my speed hike calculator, JPD, Matt Kirk, and Joey (completed sections). https://1drv.ms/b/s!Apygyt54yYPwoAqsZcMrd4QZEAXj
    For whatever you think it's worth to hike by spreadsheet... what it does show well is relative difficulty and the arc of MPD that is reflected.

    Worth watching it seems- agree I do.
    Documentation unfortunate- problems I foresee.
    Carts before horses- outcome uncertain.
    Luck- wish it I do.

    Skittles Inspiration- yoda Mathewski


    If anyone wants to play with the speed hiker version of the calculator here is a link to it- (use the nobo tab).
    https://1drv.ms/x/s!Apygyt54yYPwmiZ9TvnWSk512mSZ
    Last edited by Just Bill; 06-29-2017 at 14:29.

  3. #3
    Registered User
    Join Date
    01-17-2005
    Location
    Ambler, PA
    Posts
    591
    Images
    5

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Just Bill View Post
    I got him at 2.5 days behind if your 42.8 is close enough.
    https://1drv.ms/b/s!Apygyt54yYPwg5M64SjWFvP78JxByw

    Here's an old graphic from when Joey went the first time- with Map Man's data, my speed hike calculator, JPD, Matt Kirk, and Joey (completed sections). https://1drv.ms/b/s!Apygyt54yYPwoAqsZcMrd4QZEAXj
    For whatever you think it's worth to hike by spreadsheet... what it does show well is relative difficulty and the arc of MPD that is reflected.

    ...If anyone wants to play with the speed hiker version of the calculator here is a link to it- (use the nobo tab).
    https://1drv.ms/x/s!Apygyt54yYPwmiZ9TvnWSk512mSZ
    Thanks,
    Your spreadsheet seems to be very sensitive to where you put in the 42.8 mpd number. If Knotts keeps up 42.8 thru Glencliff is he a lock? I don't think so, but the spreadsheet says yes.
    I agree that 40 mpd after Salisbury is not going to happen. I was optimistic because Scott Jurek, and the last two sobo supported were able to push near the end.

    There are 900 follows on Instagram, crazyknotts. I plan to stalk the old fashion way, in Peter Limmer's crib.

  4. #4
    Registered User Just Bill's Avatar
    Join Date
    07-06-2013
    Location
    Chicago, Il
    Age
    40
    Posts
    3,719

    Default

    Yar, it's intentionally sensitive. The AT has dramatically different difficulty.

    if you look at the ratio column...the whites are the baseline(hardest), other sections are then relative to that. As in just because you can do a 20 in the shennies don't mean you can do one in the whites (on average).

    long story on that calculator but the basic premise is you take a section you "know" and then plug in your mpd. From there it gives you a good idea how to plan. It started as an answer to the "how long will it take" question for regular hikers based upon MAp Mans massive efforts.

    I tweaked it a hair for speed hikes and it's matched up fairly well if you exclude the typical big day on the first and last day.

    trying to hike the AT with a linear average approach is a bad idea. And Nobo...if you don't have the record by Maine junction you aren't going to make it up. You finish strong sobo, not nobo.

    To answer your question: plug 42.8 into Gorham to glencliff and he would have needed to put up 60-70mpd through the easier sections to be capable of that.
    It's set up to enter only one section, then show other sections relative to it and a final time.

    all that said...it's just a spreadsheet.

  5. #5
    Registered User
    Join Date
    01-17-2005
    Location
    Ambler, PA
    Posts
    591
    Images
    5

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Just Bill View Post
    Yar, it's intentionally sensitive. The AT has dramatically different difficulty.

    if you look at the ratio column...the whites are the baseline(hardest), other sections are then relative to that. As in just because you can do a 20 in the shennies don't mean you can do one in the whites (on average).

    long story on that calculator but the basic premise is you take a section you "know" and then plug in your mpd. From there it gives you a good idea how to plan. It started as an answer to the "how long will it take" question for regular hikers based upon MAp Mans massive efforts.

    I tweaked it a hair for speed hikes and it's matched up fairly well if you exclude the typical big day on the first and last day.

    trying to hike the AT with a linear average approach is a bad idea. And Nobo...if you don't have the record by Maine junction you aren't going to make it up. You finish strong sobo, not nobo.

    To answer your question: plug 42.8 into Gorham to glencliff and he would have needed to put up 60-70mpd through the easier sections to be capable of that.
    It's set up to enter only one section, then show other sections relative to it and a final time.

    all that said...it's just a spreadsheet.

    Edited to: Never met a spreadsheet I didn't like, but not sure I believe this one.
    Last edited by ARambler; 06-30-2017 at 06:02.

  6. #6
    Registered User
    Join Date
    05-02-2014
    Location
    St. Louis, MO
    Posts
    1,260

    Default

    The documentation issue is interesting. Clearly, he knew what was needed beforehand, prepared for it(?), but didn't bother to correctly employ the one device that would prove his conquest, when it was most needed? That set some alarms off..

    If his mpd numbers are actual and legit, then he coulda been a contendah. But, he cannot maintain the necessary pace through the toughest sections to come. I fear his chances of bettering Anish are near zero. But, it will be fun to watch...

    And while I kinda sorta maybe buy into the "if you hike nonstop for a couple of years you can set the FKT on the AT" theory..... that's because of the romantic dreamer in me. With true world-class, if not world's greatest, ultra marathoners(Speedgoat) and proven bad-arse hikers(Anish) holding the FKT's it seems a bit...romantic...to subscribe to the notion that a relatively, if not completely, unknown entity can just hike for a couple of years and better the times of real athletes with 20 years of being at the top of their sport(Speedgoat). I suppose it could be done...but it just seems unlikely.

  7. #7
    MuddyWaters's Avatar
    Join Date
    05-05-2011
    Location
    state of confusion
    Posts
    9,171
    Journal Entries
    1

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ScareBear View Post
    And while I kinda sorta maybe buy into the "if you hike nonstop for a couple of years you can set the FKT on the AT" theory..... that's because of the romantic dreamer in me. With true world-class, if not world's greatest, ultra marathoners(Speedgoat) and proven bad-arse hikers(Anish) holding the FKT's it seems a bit...romantic...to subscribe to the notion that a relatively, if not completely, unknown entity can just hike for a couple of years and better the times of real athletes with 20 years of being at the top of their sport(Speedgoat). I suppose it could be done...but it just seems unlikely.

    Whats Meltzer won lately?

    Truth is, these guys jurek, meltzer, are past their prime.
    Thats why someone in their prime is ripe to take it away.

    And Heather used to be a fat. 70 lbs overweight. She discovered her gift late in life.
    "Inevitably, a long distance hiker must choose between travelling light, and not travelling at all." - Earl V. Shaffer

  8. #8
    Registered User
    Join Date
    05-02-2014
    Location
    St. Louis, MO
    Posts
    1,260

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by MuddyWaters View Post
    Whats Meltzer won lately?

    Truth is, these guys jurek, meltzer, are past their prime.
    Thats why someone in their prime is ripe to take it away.

    And Heather used to be a fat. 70 lbs overweight. She discovered her gift late in life.
    Not so sure Meltzer is past his prime when he just set the AT FKT? Hell, he's 50. Give him a break?

    Not so sure what Anish's former weight has to do with anything. She says it was only 50 and it was way back in college in Indy. Besides being a long distance beast, she's also an accomplished climber. Anish was on the radar before her AT FKT attempt. She had already smashed the PCT FKT. Some folks thought she might even beat Jurek's time. She didn't come out of nowhere and was not an unknown. That's my point. I'd like to believe that some unknown can just hike himself into FKT shape in two years...but it doesn't seem realistic or practically possible.

    If somebody "in their prime" is ripe to take the FKT, why has it never been done? Has anybody under your definition of "in their prime" (what is that, anyway?) ever set the AT FKT? The PCT FKT? If not, then perhaps it isn't going to happen because we are talking about different "primes"?

    Perhaps the mental toughness and ability to suck up physical pain/discomfort only comes with chronological age?

  9. #9
    MuddyWaters's Avatar
    Join Date
    05-05-2011
    Location
    state of confusion
    Posts
    9,171
    Journal Entries
    1

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ScareBear View Post
    Not so sure Meltzer is past his prime when he just set the AT FKT? Hell, he's 50. Give him a break?

    Not so sure what Anish's former weight has to do with anything. She says it was only 50 and it was way back in college in Indy. Besides being a long distance beast, she's also an accomplished climber. Anish was on the radar before her AT FKT attempt. She had already smashed the PCT FKT. Some folks thought she might even beat Jurek's time. She didn't come out of nowhere and was not an unknown. That's my point. I'd like to believe that some unknown can just hike himself into FKT shape in two years...but it doesn't seem realistic or practically possible.

    If somebody "in their prime" is ripe to take the FKT, why has it never been done? Has anybody under your definition of "in their prime" (what is that, anyway?) ever set the AT FKT? The PCT FKT? If not, then perhaps it isn't going to happen because we are talking about different "primes"?

    Perhaps the mental toughness and ability to suck up physical pain/discomfort only comes with chronological age?
    Becausle ultra runners that can win running races.......still do. And get endorsements and sponsorships. Running is their life.....not ultra walking.
    Doing a fkt on long trail hiking will damage their running ability for a long time. Maybe forever.They have no interest. While still competitive at least.

    But youngster Joey camps almost did it.

    Before the PCT fkt who was Anish?
    Nobody
    She came "out of nowhere" into the fkt world
    Just having hiked long trails before dont make you a fkt contender, it just means you know what you getting into.

    No one knows if they can do it..... till they try. Sometimes they are suddenly a sensation.
    Last edited by MuddyWaters; 06-30-2017 at 08:42.
    "Inevitably, a long distance hiker must choose between travelling light, and not travelling at all." - Earl V. Shaffer

  10. #10
    Registered User Just Bill's Avatar
    Join Date
    07-06-2013
    Location
    Chicago, Il
    Age
    40
    Posts
    3,719

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ARambler View Post
    Edited to: Never met a spreadsheet I didn't like, but not sure I believe this one.
    Quote Originally Posted by Just Bill View Post

    all that said...it's just a spreadsheet.
    Anybody has an opportunity.
    Regardless of outcome- anyone who takes a serious shot has my respect and support. I find the attempt itself inspirational, the hike itself rewarding.
    The long odds of success are a simple fact. A blunt understanding and honest respect of the massive difficulty only deepens the appreciation for the effort.

    Jennifer Pharr Davis advised, "hold the record lightly".

    Knotts has put up quite a few trips, hiked quite a few miles. No matter what the clock says at the end nor who comes behind- he will still have this hike.
    He wins either way. Given the chance I'd buy him a beer and pull up a stool and happily hear his tales. Even if he never tried it he has a solid right to hold his head high.
    The pursuit of the FKT itself is enough. Actually pulling it off is a minor miracle; and not really as important to those involved as one might imagine once the dust settles.

    The record itself is just the backdrop. It's a good framework to have an adventure.
    Every trip has logistics, statistics, routes, miles, guidelines and rules. A collection of cold hard numbers and facts that should be taken seriously if you are serious.
    The level of scrutiny is necessary to protect the integrity of the FKT itself; to keep it honest, pure and worth chasing. The facts are the facts and as impersonal as ma nature.

    Anyone who hikes is looking for something... there are many 6 month hikers and 20 year section hikers looking just as hard for it as any FKT attempt. Often more-so.
    Even if you're just there to be there- that's something. Whatever level you're hiking on you will get something out of the experience. Hiking can change your life, even if that change is simply being present for it.
    Hiking is a game of one, an FKT on a LD trail is a very specific version of that game with a very narrow set of rules and nearly impossible chance of success. If you dilute those standards any reward is hollow.

    But when it is done; the record itself should be held lightly because it was nothing more than the framework used to play the game.
    Who you are, who you were, what you learn and who you've become are what you really walk away with. Those achievements are timeless. And permanent.
    There are a few egos that don't understand that... but that's rare. The trail tends to weed those folks out.
    Regardless of the clock or your place on the podium- You can earn an FKT, but you can never take one.

    If you truly win that game your only real motivation is to maintain the purity of that narrow path so that others can walk it too.

  11. #11
    Registered User
    Join Date
    04-05-2010
    Location
    southern appalachians
    Posts
    191

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ScareBear View Post
    The documentation issue is interesting... With true world-class, if not world's greatest, ultra marathoners(Speedgoat) and proven bad-arse hikers(Anish) holding the FKT's it seems a bit...romantic...to subscribe to the notion that a relatively, if not completely, unknown entity can just hike for a couple of years and better the times of real athletes.
    Honest, thorough (and timely) documentation should be the standard regardless of how believable or unbelievable the feat. With that said, the current self-supported documentation is rather sloppy: http://www.mapmyrun.com/workout/1322925583.

    These gpx files were cleaned up around the time of the Ninja fallout. Erroneous waypoints were removed to produce a more coherent map: https://mapalist.com/map/604871. To the best my knowledge, these are the only stats out there.
    Other than taking a year to surface, missing easily decipherable splits and a week of timestamps in ME, this documentation is okay... But it's hardly the best practice, nor should it be the precedent followed by subsequent aspirants, "elites" included. We can do and have done better
    Fast, Light & Free On the Appalachian Trail The story of a self-supported hike in less than 60 days.

  12. #12
    Registered User Venchka's Avatar
    Join Date
    02-20-2013
    Location
    Upper East Side of Texas
    Age
    72
    Posts
    7,687

    Default

    According to Anish's Instagram account, she is in route to or on the CDT. Somewhere in Montana via the train.
    She hiked the Oregon Desert Trail this spring.
    Wayne


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    "So it's sorta social, demented and sad, but social. Right?
    John Bender, The Breakfast Club

  13. #13
    Registered User Venchka's Avatar
    Join Date
    02-20-2013
    Location
    Upper East Side of Texas
    Age
    72
    Posts
    7,687

    Default

    Anish posted a photo of the Belly River Trailhead sign in Glacier NP this morning.
    Wayne


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    "So it's sorta social, demented and sad, but social. Right?
    John Bender, The Breakfast Club

  14. #14

    Default

    Got behind a little in keeping up with CrazyKnotts. Is he out of contention for this thing?

  15. #15
    Registered User Just Bill's Avatar
    Join Date
    07-06-2013
    Location
    Chicago, Il
    Age
    40
    Posts
    3,719

    Default

    Was hoping someone else was watching, lol.

    I took a quick peak at FB... hard to tell. Post there yesterday about finishing on the 18th with 300 to go yesterday... 320 from pinkham to Big K.
    Again who knows that post was at 8 pm at pinkham notch and he planned 21 more miles overnight. So in theory 300 to go today if he did his 20...300/8days is 37.5mpd.

    In theory depending on which tomorrow he started on the 26th... 5/26 to 7/18 would be 54 if I quick counted right so theoretically still in the mix.
    saw a post about missing a new phone and a new spot so guessing the tracker is out the window, guess we'll see how it shakes out.

    Big hike either way.

  16. #16

    Default

    Data Crunchers R' Us. Nice summary, for sure. Just read the same posts. Remember what does he get if he does knock this down? A cookie?

  17. #17
    Registered User Just Bill's Avatar
    Join Date
    07-06-2013
    Location
    Chicago, Il
    Age
    40
    Posts
    3,719

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by chknfngrs View Post
    Data Crunchers R' Us. Nice summary, for sure. Just read the same posts. Remember what does he get if he does knock this down? A cookie?
    Cookies are not allowed in Baxter any longer.

  18. #18
    Registered User
    Join Date
    01-16-2011
    Location
    On the trail
    Posts
    3,706
    Images
    3

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Just Bill View Post
    Cookies are not allowed in Baxter any longer.
    Do you have to clear the, off your phone also?????
    enemy of unnecessary but innovative trail invention gadgetry

  19. #19

    Default

    What's FKT?
    ...the maddest of all is to see life as it is, and not as it should be. Cervantes

  20. #20

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Teacher & Snacktime View Post
    What's FKT?
    Fastest Known Time. go back and read the beginning posts, it's very interesting
    https://tinyurl.com/MyFDresults

    A vigorous five-mile walk will do more good for an unhappy but otherwise healthy adult than all the medicine and psychology in the world. ~Paul Dudley White

Page 1 of 4 1 2 3 4 LastLast
++ New Posts ++

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •