record numbers of thru hikes this year?

[Megapixel]

I was just reading a trail journal and unless it's a misprint he was number 1600 or so starting at Springer and now he's 1200 or so at Harpers. I thought I had read somewhere that the attrition rate is around 50% or greater by Harpers, but according to this journal it's more like 25% this year. Just curious as to peoples thoughts on this and the impact this will have for SOBOS - available campsites/shelters/ issues in the Whites? And more importantly, with these increases do you think the AT will ever issue yearly permits like the JMT?

[BuckeyeBill]

There was a big push for flip flop hikes starting at Harpers Ferry. I think that the numbers include these flip-flop hikers, as they intend to do their thru hike in a different fashion.

[Megapixel]

There was a big push for flip flop hikes starting at Harpers Ferry. I think that the numbers include these flip-flop hikers, as they intend to do their thru hike in a different fashion.

That makes a bit more sense if that is the case... but still 4-500 flips?

[Tipi Walter]

And more importantly, with these increases do you think the AT will ever issue yearly permits like the JMT?

Just for laughs wouldn't it be great to get the AT to use the Smokies rules---Every campsite reserved with permission and $4 a night??

So, let's see---in 3 months on night 85 where exactly will you be camping?? You gotta reserve a spot!! And just think, at $4 a night well you could really spend some cash.

[BuckeyeBill]

That makes a bit more sense if that is the case... but still 4-500 flips?

Yep, they had a big ole party and send off for the flippers. I have stated in the past my feelings about overcrowding and permits on the trail. I will not restate them as I stepped on a few toes that caused things to get out of hand.

[Slo-go'en]

I believe Flip floppers are counted separately. When I was on Springer about April 22nd, the count was over 2,000 if I remember right. Maybe as high as 2500?

[Mags]

No one does the AT anymore. It's too crowded...

[Lauriep]

Last time we checked (a few weeks ago), the count at Amicalola Falls State Park was 2,122. However, that number represents only slightly more than half of northbound thru-hikers.

The official estimate by ATC of the number of starters this year is 3,735.

Currently, the count of nobos reaching Harpers Ferry is 1236. If trends are normal, we should see something close to 1700 nobos in Harpers Ferry before the season is over.

We've seen 255 flip-floppers in Harpers Ferry that were starting somewhere other than Georgia so far this year. Many started in Harpers Ferry, but quite a few started in Shenandoah and other points mostly south, but some north. There were about 30 that started in Harpers Ferry over the 4-day period from Friday-Monday of the Flip Flop Festival, so even that small number of flip-floppers we are encouraging to spread out. This time a year we might see 15-50 nobos a day.

[Dogwood]

Yes, I'm one to earnestly believe some type of quota limits will eventually be part of the AT thru-hiking experience. PLEESE, please let's not all get into it for the umpteenth time how or if that will be instituted. It's already happened on the PCT and JMT. The PCTA and NPS has seen what has happened on the AT and wisely sought to limit usage. The ATC, which I support, still is kicking this can down the road by pushing alternative itineraries as a result of not wanting to change with the times interpreting MacKay's vision that the AT should welcome all even if it means the AT is not how it was ever envisioned.

[map man]

Laurie's data does explain the numbers in that trail journal, Megapixel, with fairly normal attrition rates -- historically you do not see dramatic changes from year to year in drop-out percentages.

It's also flawed to use a comparison of the hiker number for this one hiker at Springer and that hiker's number at Harpers Ferry. If that hiker got an early start and was hiker number 1200 out of 3750 to pass Springer but then was really pokey getting to Harpers Ferry and ended up being hiker number 1200 out of 1700 to reach that milestone, your method of comparison would make it look like there was no attrition at all. Conversely, a hiker leaving late (let's say number 3000 out of 3750) but moving fast and getting to Harpers before most NOBOs (say 600th out of 1700 for the season) would make it look like the attrition was huge!

[rickb]

Yes, I'm one to earnestly believe some type of quota limits will eventually be part of the AT thru-hiking experience. PLEESE, please let's not all get into it for the umpteenth time how or if that will be instituted.

Thanks for the laugh!

[Dogwood]

Thanks for the laugh!

I also come to WB for the entertainment. Dogwood is my stage name.

[Lauriep]

To answer the initial question of the thread: yes, it is a record year for A.T. northbound thru-hike starters.

As of June 19, Baxter had counted 217 southbounders. The dropout rate was reportedly very high right at the start due to the late snowmelt and large amount of rain. Last year's total number of sobos counted by Baxter was 490; hard to know if we'll end up higher or lower.

[MuddyWaters]

Yes, I'm one to earnestly believe some type of quota limits will eventually be part of the AT thru-hiking experience. PLEESE, please let's not all get into it for the umpteenth time how or if that will be instituted. It's already happened on the PCT and JMT. The PCTA and NPS has seen what has happened on the AT and wisely sought to limit usage. The ATC, which I support, still is kicking this can down the road by pushing alternative itineraries as a result of not wanting to change with the times interpreting MacKay's vision that the AT should welcome all even if it means the AT is not how it was ever envisioned.

The catalyst will be when someone gets sick and actually dies because the ATC and NPS perpetuate a known health hazard every year where large numbers get sick. In fact, people could end up prosecuted.

[Deadeye]

These are great reasons to try other trails. My son & I hiked the Monadnock-Sunapee Greenway trail the week before Memorial Day. 4 days, 55 miles. We saw a dozen day hikers on Mt. Monadnock at the start of day 1, and 5 day hikers the rest of the trip. Each night we spent alone except for the coyotes and moose.

[lonehiker]

The catalyst will be when someone gets sick and actually dies because the ATC and NPS perpetuate a known health hazard every year where large numbers get sick. In fact, people could end up prosecuted.

This thread just became a comedy.

[rafe]

Was hiking in the vicinity of Mt. Rogers a couple of weeks ago and surprised to meet numerous northbounders each day. I figured the peak of the wave is probably in PA or NJ about now, so it was surprising to meet so many. I didn't think the wave was that wide.

[rafe]

These are great reasons to try other trails. My son & I hiked the Monadnock-Sunapee Greenway trail the week before Memorial Day. 4 days, 55 miles. We saw a dozen day hikers on Mt. Monadnock at the start of day 1, and 5 day hikers the rest of the trip. Each night we spent alone except for the coyotes and moose.

That was our experience also, except that we started at Monadnock on a rainy weekday, so even that mountain was all but abandoned.

[Traveler]

The catalyst will be when someone gets sick and actually dies because the ATC and NPS perpetuate a known health hazard every year where large numbers get sick. In fact, people could end up prosecuted.

I am not sure what Federal or State statutes would support a criminal charge for collective hygiene failure of footpath users. Perhaps civil action, but it will be difficult to prove negligence on the part of Federal, State, or Local jurisdictions, and I doubt any lawyers would take up the suit. Hyperbole aside, there will likely be a tipping point where the hygiene-illness connection becomes the primary dissuasion and numbers will drop over a period of time much like tourism to areas of the world that have cholera or other illness outbreaks.

[gracebowen]

Well honestly I hope there are no permits if and when I get to hike. I am currently anticipating a flip flop from Harpers Ferry in 3 years.