I have not been afraid of black bears

[somers515]

If you carefully read the report it is questionable if he was attacked by the bear. Either way it is still a very small probability of bear incidents.

The bear bites him. Did I provide a bad link? The hiker himself posted his story on white blaze. Here's another summary: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/new...e80006002.html

This is exactly what people who are worried about bears attacking them (short of being killed) are worried about. But if you care to explain the semantics that you find questionable I'm all ears.

[John B]

The bear bites him. Did I provide a bad link? The hiker himself posted his story on white blaze. Here's another summary: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/new...e80006002.html

This is exactly what people who are worried about bears attacking them (short of being killed) are worried about. But if you care to explain the semantics that you find questionable I'm all ears.

That boy is lucky to be alive.

[Fredt4]

The bear bite him thru the tent, did it know it was a human. Perhaps it didn't, his story seems to indicate it probably didn't know and was just after food. I'd wouldn't call that an attack, perhaps one could but it's not an attack that one needs to defend against as the bear doesn't know it is a human. Yes, one should attempt to prevent such an incident but that's not a defensive action. Yes, this is a small difference when one is the subject but it is still a big factor. Either way, as I indicated it is still a very small incident of bear encounters which leads me to worry more about tick bites.

[Traveler]

Probably safe to assume normal people can manage concerns ranging in possibilities from remote to high possibility and do things to prevent or mitigate all of them to their level of comfort regardless of another persons perception of the odds or seriousness of the occurrence.

[cmoulder]

The bear came back again after the initial "non-attack" (lol) bite knowing there was a human in there.

Split hairs if you wish, but by that time it was certainly an attack.

Yes, we know attacks are rare, but there's no need to twist logic into a pretzel to try to make a point.

[Heliotrope]

The bear bite him thru the tent, did it know it was a human. Perhaps it didn't, his story seems to indicate it probably didn't know and was just after food. I'd wouldn't call that an attack, perhaps one could but it's not an attack that one needs to defend against as the bear doesn't know it is a human. Yes, one should attempt to prevent such an incident but that's not a defensive action. Yes, this is a small difference when one is the subject but it is still a big factor. Either way, as I indicated it is still a very small incident of bear encounters which leads me to worry more about tick bites.

I agree. May not have known it was human. But it was escalating to an attack as far as I'm concerned. He (the hiker) made the right decisions. Yell, punch and retreat to safer ground. Still need to defend.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[somers515]

The bear came back again after the initial "non-attack" (lol) bite knowing there was a human in there.

Split hairs if you wish, but by that time it was certainly an attack.

Yes, we know attacks are rare, but there's no need to twist logic into a pretzel to try to make a point.

+1, thank you cmoulder - couldn't agree more.

[Alligator]

Would those contemplating a thru hike find it interesting (or perhaps even of some value) to know how many thru hikers have contracted Lyme disease over the course of thier 2000 mile hikes?

I would think so.

Not because ticks target thru hikers to the exclusion of others. But for context.

If one were to learn that significant number of thru hikers get Lyme disease every year, one might consider that REALITY and try to understand the commonalities among those so impacted.

• Were they mostly Southbounders or hiking off season -- or were they hiking within the "bubble".
• Did they habitually wear long pants and/or use permethrin
• Did they get attacked by ticks while tarping or tenting off Trail -- or at mouse infested shelter
• Did they have a partner with them to do tick checks, or were they on their own

These are just a few possible questions, of course. I am sure there are better ones.

Bottom line, knowing the number of Thru Hikers who get Lyme Disease (many) or the number of Thru Hikers who have been eaten by a bear (none) or he number of AT thru hikers who have been murdered on the AT (six) is only useful to the extent that it helps one ask the right questions.

But this thread is about bears. Thankfully, nobody can point to a half dozen (or any) lethal bear attacks on the AT as they make up thier own list of questions regarding whether or not bear spray makes sense on the AT.

I see that in your lyme disease scenario you recognized that you needed to qualify the experience of the thruhikers. Your thruhikers are now 2000 milers. In doing so, you are attempting to provide an example where it is ok to consider just the thruhiker population. If your scenario holds, I expect you will use it as validation for your murdered thruhiker statistics. You like or can't help twisting around the words to try to make it fit your narrative without regard to whether the methodology is actually sound. That's just word games not science. Your methodology is not sound. You've ignored this in the past but this time you recognized why it was not sound and still ignored it. There's a saying "garbage in garbage out". If the data one collects is garbage then inferences drawn are also garbage. Bad data makes for bad decisions.

The numbers don't provide context without a basis. That's why you switched to 2000 milers. You picked a group that on average spends more time at risk. Guess what though, their time in NC, GA, TN, and even parts of VA aren't much of an influence because those states don't have much risk at all of a person contracting Lyme disease http://phenomena.nationalgeographic....DC-lymemap.jpg. Our prospective thruhiker though doesn't know that and thinks she needs to wear pants and long sleeves all the time. Between the extra clothes, Deet, permethrin, bear spray, and an AR-15 she's too overloaded to make it out of Georgia. She does bag a mama bear though, she knows it was a she because it climbed a tree with its cubs and she was worried it was going to jump down on her so shot it.

You're really fixated on the murders. Your last sentence isn't really an attempt to get back to the bear subject, the half-dozen is to again refer to the murders.

[rickb]

There's a saying "garbage in garbage out". If the data one collects is garbage then inferences drawn are also garbage. Bad data makes for bad decisions.

Not sure if you are referring to the number of murdered thru hikers I cited (six) as bad data, or if you are speaking in general terms.

If the former, let me assure you my numbers are correct and suggesting the data is "garbage" is unfortutate.

[egilbe]

Not sure if you are referring to the number of murdered thru hikers I cited (six) as bad data, or if you are speaking in general terms.

If the former, let me assure you my numbers are correct and suggesting the data is "garbage" is unfortutate.

I know of four that were murdered on the AT. Who were the others?

So if there were six in the history of the AT, of the millions of people who hike it every year, that's a pretty safe place. There have been three murders two blocks from where I live in the last three years. I don't take any special precautions to prevent being murdered, just as I don't take any special precautions to prevent being eaten by a bear on the AT. The risk is too low.

[rickb]

I know of four that were murdered on the AT. Who were the others?
So if there were six in the history of the AT, of the millions of people who hike it every year, that's a pretty safe place. There have been three murders two blocks from where I live in the last three years. I don't take any special precautions to prevent being murdered, just as I don't take any special precautions to prevent being eaten by a bear on the AT. The risk is too low.

I understand your position that the number of THRU HIKERS murdered on the AT may not be noteworthy-- or is to be expected all things considered.

Many others take the same position.

The good news is that while some thru hikers have been killed by people (and as you say, that is a rare occurrence) none has ever been killed by a bear. Ever.

To answer your specific question, here's is a list of the Thru Hikers murdered on the AT (all were at or near an AT Shelter well outside of the contemporary northbound bubble, btw):


Molly LaRue, 25, from Shaker Heights, Ohio
Geoffrey Hood, 26, from Signal Mountain, Tennessee
Susan Ramsey, 27 from Ellsworth Maine
Robert Mountford, 27, from Ellsworth, Maine
Janice Balza, 22, from Madison, Wisconsin
Joel Polsom, 26, of Hartsville, South Carolina


In the case of Joel Polsom, his thru hiker status is not all that well documented. In the past I have made it a point to say 5 or 6 thru hikers, and should have done so in this thread. Unlike Scott Lilly (a long distance section hiker, 26 from South Bend, Indiana who I have not included on the list of thru hikers), he was not hiking alone -- the woman he was with was kidnapped by a fugitive from Michigan.

When looking at tragic interactions with bears (anywhere) I think the hiking/outdoor community has done well to look at commonalities between them, even if we don't do that where the threat is higher.

With bear, one of the commonalities seems to be food -- so you can bet I will hang my food bag his weekend, even though the risk of mortal danger is exceedingly low in the east.

[rocketsocks]

I make no distinction between people killed by bears on the AT and people killed by bears...why would ya.

[John B]

I understand your position that the number of THRU HIKERS murdered on the AT may not be noteworthy-- or is to be expected all things considered.
...
.

Meredith Emerson. Or doesn't she count because she wasn't a thru hiker?

[LongBlaze2019]

This thread has gotten ridiculous 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

Chasing the sun,
Turtle

[Tipi Walter]

This thread has gotten ridiculous 

Chasing the sun,
Turtle

It always does when the discussion turns to bears.

[FreeGoldRush]

The bear bite him thru the tent, did it know it was a human. Perhaps it didn't, his story seems to indicate it probably didn't know and was just after food. I'd wouldn't call that an attack, perhaps one could but it's not an attack that one needs to defend against as the bear doesn't know it is a human. Yes, one should attempt to prevent such an incident but that's not a defensive action. Yes, this is a small difference when one is the subject but it is still a big factor. Either way, as I indicated it is still a very small incident of bear encounters which leads me to worry more about tick bites.

If a bear is biting me what difference does it make what the bear is thinking? It's current actions are the problem.

[Berserker]

black bear deaths, which aside from this week are in fact very rare (and something i will still not worry about) are almost universally perpetrated by a male bear who views humans as prey and stalks and kills one to eat it. NOT by mother's defending cubs. those are grizzlies, black bears do not do that.

I'm super late in on this one (there's already 6 pages of comments) and someone may have already mentioned this, but predatory bear attacks (i.e. where a bear stalks and attacks a human for food) are very rare. Stephen Herrero wrote a great book called "Bear Attacks: Their Causes and Avoidance" where he studies many bear attacks. Very few of them are predatory, and he discusses the rarity of this in his book. From my recollection (haven't read the book in a long time) most of the attacks were food related...go figure.

[Uncle Joe]

I'm super late in on this one (there's already 6 pages of comments) and someone may have already mentioned this, but predatory bear attacks (i.e. where a bear stalks and attacks a human for food) are very rare. Stephen Herrero wrote a great book called "Bear Attacks: Their Causes and Avoidance" where he studies many bear attacks. Very few of them are predatory, and he discusses the rarity of this in his book. From my recollection (haven't read the book in a long time) most of the attacks were food related...go figure.

But, as he notes in this video, those that are fatal are usually predatory: https://youtu.be/n7yoIheOrTc

[Alligator]

Not sure if you are referring to the number of murdered thru hikers I cited (six) as bad data, or if you are speaking in general terms.

If the former, let me assure you my numbers are correct and suggesting the data is "garbage" is unfortutate.

I think you understood me plenty enough that you selectively quoted me in order to paint a different picture of what I said.

I'm referring to how you subset your data as a garbage method. You manipulate words to make the data fit the way you want it to. What about the other people murdered on the trail? They don't count? Or they don't count because that would increase the denominator, the out of how many hikers that use the trail.

What I said is below in full.

I see that in your lyme disease scenario you recognized that you needed to qualify the experience of the thruhikers. Your thruhikers are now 2000 milers. In doing so, you are attempting to provide an example where it is ok to consider just the thruhiker population. If your scenario holds, I expect you will use it as validation for your murdered thruhiker statistics. You like or can't help twisting around the words to try to make it fit your narrative without regard to whether the methodology is actually sound. That's just word games not science. Your methodology is not sound. You've ignored this in the past but this time you recognized why it was not sound and still ignored it. There's a saying "garbage in garbage out". If the data one collects is garbage then inferences drawn are also garbage. Bad data makes for bad decisions.

The numbers don't provide context without a basis. That's why you switched to 2000 milers. You picked a group that on average spends more time at risk. Guess what though, their time in NC, GA, TN, and even parts of VA aren't much of an influence because those states don't have much risk at all of a person contracting Lyme disease http://phenomena.nationalgeographic....DC-lymemap.jpg. Our prospective thruhiker though doesn't know that and thinks she needs to wear pants and long sleeves all the time. Between the extra clothes, Deet, permethrin, bear spray, and an AR-15 she's too overloaded to make it out of Georgia. She does bag a mama bear though, she knows it was a she because it climbed a tree with its cubs and she was worried it was going to jump down on her so shot it.

You're really fixated on the murders. Your last sentence isn't really an attempt to get back to the bear subject, the half-dozen is to again refer to the murders.

[tdoczi]

I don't recall grizzlies in Alaska when I was a kid. Large brown bears. Polar bears that kept pace with our car for a while while chasing it in Mt. McKinley National Park.

The brown bears didn't realize they were dead. 30.06 rounds didn't really stop them.

the brown ones were grizzlies my friend