Starting Dates

[Turk6177]

Is it me or are the starting dates for thru-hikers getting earlier and earlier? When I first started paying attention, it seemed like the majority of people (GA-ME) started in April and ended some time in September. Now it seems like to avoid the "bubble" people are starting more between mid February to mid March. So to avoid the bubble they are making a bubble. Not that it matters, but does anyone else notice this?

[DownEaster]

I've noticed it too, but I think there's a fair spread of start dates in the 2018 NoBo thread here. I do better in the cold than most folks so I thought starting around March 1st would let me ease into the hike without too much Trail congestion. (I may be pushing things a bit with a sleeping bag EN rated to 32.4 degrees, but I guess I'll have to see.)

An earlier start means less congestion, but requires gear for colder conditions. A later start means the hiker can probably use their starting gear through the whole AT. I'm trying a compromise where I'll use the same sleeping bag throughout, with variances of a bag liner, a second pad made of Reflectix to abandon in a hiker box, and a single mid-layer shirt to send home after the Smokies.

An AT though-hike is more popular these days than perhaps we would like, and starting earlier northbound is the only way to have the peaceful experience many of us are hoping for. We also get more interesting weather.

[Engine]

I've noticed it too, but I think there's a fair spread of start dates in the 2018 NoBo thread here. I do better in the cold than most folks so I thought starting around March 1st would let me ease into the hike without too much Trail congestion. (I may be pushing things a bit with a sleeping bag EN rated to 32.4 degrees, but I guess I'll have to see.)

An earlier start means less congestion, but requires gear for colder conditions. A later start means the hiker can probably use their starting gear through the whole AT. I'm trying a compromise where I'll use the same sleeping bag throughout, with variances of a bag liner, a second pad made of Reflectix to abandon in a hiker box, and a single mid-layer shirt to send home after the Smokies.

An AT though-hike is more popular these days than perhaps we would like, and starting earlier northbound is the only way to have the peaceful experience many of us are hoping for. We also get more interesting weather.

You'll definitely regret a bag rated above 20* with a March, 1 start. We saw single digit temps in the the Smokies during mid March this year.

Microspikes were greatly appreciated as well. We hiked on ice for 3 straight days.

As for the bubble...We started February 26th and even with way more zeros than planned, we're still ahead of the masses.

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[happypad]

We saw several people starting last week. Looks like they will need to seriously hustle some miles to get there on time.

[DownEaster]

You'll definitely regret a bag rated above 20* with a March, 1 start. We saw single digit temps in the the Smokies during mid March this year.

You could be right; I hope not. The silk bag liner is supposed to add 10 degrees (and I'll believe 5 degrees of that). Being in a tent is supposed to keep you 10 degrees warmer than the outside. After that it's up to microfleece long johns and wearing my puffy jacket to bed if necessary. I think I've got a solid 25 degrees of extra temperature allowance with everything factored in. In extremes I'd have to rely on my natural cold tolerance (a matter of being born in Maine in December setting my personal thermostat). If I need to eat a Snickers bar and do some push-ups in the middle of the night to warm up, so be it.

[4eyedbuzzard]

... starting around March 1st would let me ease into the hike without too much Trail congestion. (I may be pushing things a bit with a sleeping bag EN rated to 32.4 degrees, but I guess I'll have to see.)...

Here's actual weather data for the last 28 years from Mt LeConte (elev 6594' ASL) in GSMNP for the month of March:

Average daily low 24.3°F
Median lowest temp during month (coldest daily temp during month) 4°F
Record low -11°F (1996)
Average daily high 42.5°F
Median highest temp during month (highest daily temp during month) 58°F
Record high 66°F (2012)

Fair warning: You will flat out freeze with a 30+ degree bag in March. As the data shows, daily variance from average temps is in a range of +/- 20°

You have to be prepared NOT for the average, but for the lower temps that factor in with the higher temps to make those average temps. A 20° bag is marginal for April start (it better be a good WM 20° or similar). Your 30° bag is suitable for May-September. And then only if that bag is "true" to its EN comfort rating, you use it with long base layer and hat as specified in the EN test, and you have suitable bottom insulation.

I'd want a 0° to 10° bag for an early March start.

[DownEaster]

I'm not sure why you think those particular weather figures are relevant; the only way I'd spend the night near the top of Mt. LeConte is at LeConte Lodge in a snug cabin. I do have to be prepared for low temperatures, but I don't have to be prepared to spend the night in the worst locations. I'm sure the temperatures at Clingmans Dome are also pretty bad, but I'd spend the night at Newfound Gap instead, 1,500 feet lower in elevation.

[4eyedbuzzard]

I'm not sure why you think those particular weather figures are relevant; the only way I'd spend the night near the top of Mt. LeConte is at LeConte Lodge in a snug cabin. I do have to be prepared for low temperatures, but I don't have to be prepared to spend the night in the worst locations. I'm sure the temperatures at Clingmans Dome are also pretty bad, but I'd spend the night at Newfound Gap instead, 1,500 feet lower in elevation.

The elevation at Newfound Gap is still over 5000', as are most of the GSMNP shelters and the weather you experience will more resemble conditions at Mt LeConte than Gatlinburg. The only shelters lower than about 4500' are at the beginning and end (Fontana and Davenport). Then, NOBO, after Davenport you're right back up into higher elevations in Southern VA. They are slightly lower mountains, and spring is creeping up depending upon your pace, but you're further north, and winter hangs on well into early spring in the southern Appalachians. You're choice, but I'm not going to be the only one who warns you about a 32.4° rated bag with a March 1 start.

[Venchka]

I'm not sure why you think those particular weather figures are relevant; the only way I'd spend the night near the top of Mt. LeConte is at LeConte Lodge in a snug cabin. I do have to be prepared for low temperatures, but I don't have to be prepared to spend the night in the worst locations. I'm sure the temperatures at Clingmans Dome are also pretty bad, but I'd spend the night at Newfound Gap instead, 1,500 feet lower in elevation.

You're good. You've got your silk to keep you warm.
All the best.
Wayne


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[4shot]

I'm not sure why you think those particular weather figures are relevant; the only way I'd spend the night near the top of Mt. LeConte is at LeConte Lodge in a snug cabin. I do have to be prepared for low temperatures, but I don't have to be prepared to spend the night in the worst locations. I'm sure the temperatures at Clingmans Dome are also pretty bad, but I'd spend the night at Newfound Gap instead, 1,500 feet lower in elevation.

Apropos of absolutely nothing, is this a phenomena unique only to WB? I'm talking about people planning to hike through the Smokie Mountains in March arguing about gear choices with people who have actually hiked through the Smokies in March. From some unknown reason, people from up north think that spring time in the South is warm. It can be, but usually not in the mountains. That's a bad, and potentially fatal, assumption.

I have watched a few episodes of House and Scrubs on TV. But I don't argue with my doctor based on those experiences.

[Engine]

You could be right; I hope not. The silk bag liner is supposed to add 10 degrees (and I'll believe 5 degrees of that). Being in a tent is supposed to keep you 10 degrees warmer than the outside. After that it's up to microfleece long johns and wearing my puffy jacket to bed if necessary. I think I've got a solid 25 degrees of extra temperature allowance with everything factored in. In extremes I'd have to rely on my natural cold tolerance (a matter of being born in Maine in December setting my personal thermostat). If I need to eat a Snickers bar and do some push-ups in the middle of the night to warm up, so be it.

You can't tent in the Smokies...The shelters are like a darn ice box in early March.

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[Venchka]

Nobody seems to understand that the ridge lines through North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia at and above 5,000' have much in common with New England and Canada at and below 1,000'.
Climate change hasn't fixed it either.
Wayne


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[egilbe]

Apropos of absolutely nothing, is this a phenomena unique only to WB? I'm talking about people planning to hike through the Smokie Mountains in March arguing about gear choices with people who have actually hiked through the Smokies in March. From some unknown reason, people from up north think that spring time in the South is warm. It can be, but usually not in the mountains. That's a bad, and potentially fatal, assumption.

I have watched a few episodes of House and Scrubs on TV. But I don't argue with my doctor based on those experiences.

Hey now, Downeaster is living in Silicon Valley, thats quite a bit South of the Smokeys. I know what the mountains are like and I wont argue with anyone thats hiked the Smokies in March.

[map man]

Is it me or are the starting dates for thru-hikers getting earlier and earlier? When I first started paying attention, it seemed like the majority of people (GA-ME) started in April and ended some time in September. Now it seems like to avoid the "bubble" people are starting more between mid February to mid March. So to avoid the bubble they are making a bubble. Not that it matters, but does anyone else notice this?

Most NOBO thru-hiker hopefuls start in March and that's been true for all of the 21st century -- there are hundreds and hundreds of accounts of thru-hikes at trailjournals.com that will bear this out. Members here at WB who thru-hiked in the 20th century say that April was more common then, but you probably have to go back to the 80s and earlier to find a time when the majority of NOBOs started then. So, no, this starting in March is not that recent a change.

[Ethesis]

On this section hike in northern Virginia I've encountered a number of February starts. First March start caught up with us tonight. Others have seen a few others we missed.

[DownEaster]

You can't tent in the Smokies...The shelters are like a darn ice box in early March.

As I understand the rules, through-hikers can pitch a tent in sight of the shelters if the shelters are at capacity.

Hey now, Downeaster is living in Silicon Valley, thats quite a bit South of the Smokeys. I know what the mountains are like and I wont argue with anyone thats hiked the Smokies in March.

I also grew up in Maine, followed by college in Massachusetts. I spent my spring breaks (mid-March) in places like Acadia National Park (Mount Desert Island, off the coast of Maine) and the Green Mountains (Vermont). It's true that the GSMNP mountains are higher than in those New England places, but I'll also have an opportunity to gauge myself and my equipment before I get there. If I'm sleeping warm I'll probably be OK. If I'm sleeping cold I'll probably need to obtain an alternate bag.

[Singto]

Remember, bubbles remain bubbles but reduce in size as the miles go by and hikers leave the trail. Of course new bubbles are created as bubbles join together following events such as Trail Days. I recommend hiking far past Damascus before Trail Days and then catching a ride back for trail days and then after Trail Days, another ride forward to where you left off. Stay out in front of the Trail Days bubble.