LL,
Take Don H's advice. His 3 bag (13L) solution is the easiest way to get around a lack of packing experience. It will shrink the volume of your sleeping bag and food in particular. You also have a lot of stuff floating around in pockets with lots of unused space in each pocket. Small ziplock or other for electronics. Not everyone is happy with your clothing choices, but because you are not carrying a fleece mid layer or long johns, to me that is much less of an issue than packing your bag. At the very least, if not the whole tent, the poles and stakes can be on the outside of the pack. You do not have too much stuff for that size pack bag. I would use the packliner to protect sleeping bag and clothes. It doesn't have to be used for the top half of you backpack. The dog can ride on top of the liner.