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  1. #41

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wyoming View Post
    I note that the Postholer snow site says that as of the 19th the PCT trail snow depths was 235% of normal. And there is going to be 2-4 ft of snow added over the next 2 days in some areas.

    The CDT in Colo is at about 150% of normal for this date. What a year.
    Already as much snow as 2010-2011.

    And likely much more to come. Not much precedent for this as far as summer hiking goes

    I expect some passes may not be passable to summer hikers without ice gear until end of july at this rate, with very hazardous water crossings.
    Last edited by MuddyWaters; 02-20-2017 at 20:14.

  2. #42

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    As Burger noted, in 2009 (which wasn't nearly as bad as this year is turning out to be), there were people who tried flipping in early June, to avoid the unsettled air that was bringing fresh snow and delaying the melt off, found it didn't work out. I hiked with a woman in northern Washington who referred to her groups attempt at flipping as the ill fated Donner Party as they tried flipping from KM to Donner Pass (just north of Tahoe). Did not work at all due to the deep snow covering the trail so they couldn't find it and struggled to make any miles. Flipping on the PCT only works if only half the trail gets hammered by snow. Some years when the southern part gets a lot of snow, the northern part doesn't, and vice versa. That doesn't seem to be the case this year.

    If you want to extend the hiking season as late as possible this year. Save Northern California for last as you normally can hike there later in the fall than you can in Oregon and Washington. I mention this as one of the smart choices may end up being to take some time off in June to let the snow melt more which gives less time to finish.
    Last edited by Miner; 02-21-2017 at 11:32.

  3. #43
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    Where exactly would be a good spot to jump back on in early june on the trail? Ashland? Trying to formulate some rough idea of a plan.

  4. #44

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    I think the problem with flipping or bouncing around this year is that at _some_ point you have to tackle the Sierra. When do the snows normally return? It might suck the entire summer into fall.

  5. #45

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wyoming View Post
    Just a little update.
    and Mamouth has 350" at the summit.
    That is their BASE. Meaning completely packed down solid snow. They have received 488" at their Main Lodge (even more at summit). And if you look at their historical snowfall history there is no parallel. 2011 was so big due to a huge DECEMBER. 82-83 was actually not even all that exceptional. The April snowpack for that year was so huge because they got 112" in late March and 52" in first week of April. Of course April 1 snowpack is going to be huge right after a 10 foot snow storm before any of it has had a chance to melt.

  6. #46
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    "That is their BASE. Meaning completely packed down solid snow."

    Yes. I sort of assumed that folks would understand it was packed snow, but good to point out exactly what it meant. I would be interested in seeing a picture of the area around where the lifts drop off the skiers on top. 350 is approximately 30ft of packed snow. The snow banks are likely higher than the top of the lifts structures.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wyoming View Post
    "That is their BASE. Meaning completely packed down solid snow."

    Yes. I sort of assumed that folks would understand it was packed snow, but good to point out exactly what it meant. I would be interested in seeing a picture of the area around where the lifts drop off the skiers on top. 350 is approximately 30ft of packed snow. The snow banks are likely higher than the top of the lifts structures.
    yeah lol, i bet there is an wall of snow around the lifts from where they have cleared it

  8. #48
    CDT - 2013, PCT - 2009, AT - 1300 miles done burger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImAfraidOfBears View Post
    Where exactly would be a good spot to jump back on in early june on the trail? Ashland? Trying to formulate some rough idea of a plan.
    Early June? There may not be anywhere clear of snow by then. Maybe later in June if the snowpack in the Cascades ends up below average or melts more quickly than normal.

    If you need to be do the Sierra on a certain date this season, you're probably going to have to 1) jump around based on where the snow has melted or 2) take some time off to let the snow melt. It's hard to imagine anyone except SOBOers doing a continuous hike this year.

  9. #49
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    Well I bit the bullet last night.

    As a form of insurance I started the planning for a SOBO vice the NOBO I had planned already. That won't take all that long as it is pretty simple to turn everything around. I will likely up the number of mailed resupplies though as I would expect at this point there will be a big surge in southbounders (I hate doing mailed resupplies because of the inherent inconvenience). This likely surge might easily deplete some of the smaller resupply spots in the far north as they would not be expecting a doubling of hikers or more and might run out of supplies.

    If it goes this way it will probably require a significant increase in daily mileage due to the likely late start required as the snow up north is currently sitting at about the April 1 average already. I am figuring right now (with the option to change at will) that a SOBO start might run well into early July this year. If so it will be beat feet like a crazy man to KM south.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by AllDownhillFromHere View Post
    It might suck the entire summer into fall.
    I don't understand this sort of thinking. The Sierra will be beautiful this year, like every other year. Will it be a walk in the park? No, but isn't that the point?

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImAfraidOfBears View Post
    Where exactly would be a good spot to jump back on in early june on the trail? Ashland? Trying to formulate some rough idea of a plan.
    Here is what I wrote several posts above. It answers your question but likely not what you want to hear.

    You will be flipping from the pot into the frying pan. Contrary to what many think, you have the potential for snow anywhere north of KM with the possible exception of Hat Creek Rim and North out of Cascade locks. Each of those section will be about 50 miles. It's not just about snow in the Sierra, in fact, I found some sections north of the Sierra much more difficult than the Sierra. The area around Shale Lake and also just south of Crater Lake, both in Oregon as well as the section just north of I-80 were character builders. You would be heading into each of those areas much earlier than I did unless you choose to hole up somewhere for a few weeks.
    enemy of unnecessary but innovative trail invention gadgetry

  12. #52

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    Should be pointed out that there are still 3 months of the snow season left meaning that if they get a drought spring or a normal spring plus a several week heat wave then all this talk is for naught. It is still possible for this to actually be a lower summer snow pack year (even if it is remote). Sierra snow is notoriously unpredictable. At Mammoth/Squaw you can get months of no snow at the start of the season and all the skiers are talking about putting bullets in their heads and then out of nowhere in a mere few days they are back to normal. Likewise they can get pounded with snow and then for months get nothing but sunshine. So it's very unpredictable.

    Worth pointing out that Sugarbowl, just a couple miles west of Squaw (who has less than 500"), already has 600" of snow! This is really weird since the two are right next to each other. So some of the Crest got hit a lot harder than the pounding that everyone has took. And the PCT goes right through Sugarbowl. 600" is crazy crazy snow for Sugarbowl even if it was the end of the season.

  13. #53

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    Just realize SOBO is harder than NOBO because you start off in snow on steep hills and hit Glacier right away, which is no joke (huge elevation changes, limited resupply options, side hills, permanent snow fields).

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by frisbeefreek View Post
    Just realize SOBO is harder than NOBO because you start off in snow on steep hills and hit Glacier right away, which is no joke (huge elevation changes, limited resupply options, side hills, permanent snow fields).
    For a sobo one should be on shape from get go like an energizer bunny. There is a reason people choose to go Nobo. You have 700 mile to prepare for high elevation hiking. This year would be interesting. I think the stream crossings would be a major issue this year even more critical and concerning than snow.

  15. #55
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    I've decided im going to do campo-KM, then fly to seattle for my sisters graduation, hang out a month, then go SOBO. Hopefully this allows me to finish in 2017.

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  17. #57
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    More snow porn. I must admit I love the craziness of nature.

    http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/l...301-story.html

    http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/sweq.action

    and heavy snow in Yosemite on Sat and Sun

    http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...2#.WLgX8zsrKUk

  18. #58
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    "With this yearís exceptional snowpack, itís likely that hikers will encounter snow further south on ridgelines throughout the Idyllwild area. Thereís still the biggest potential for things to get real on Mt. San Jacinto"

    "Flip-flopping up to the northern terminus isnít looking so hot, either right now. The North Cascades are also buried under a banner winter, to the extent that even a late June or early July departure wonít be late enough."

    "The overall snowpack for the entire state is currently at 188% of normal for this date. Look at the numbers by region and it gets even more extreme: southern California (including the eastern Sierras) is at 213%, central California (including most of the Lake Tahoe area) is at 193%"

    source:

    https://blog.hyperlitemountaingear.c...eid=5983524a16
    I like to saunter. Usually in canyons.
    I wrote a book about my sauntering in canyons: Anasazi of Chaco Canyon
    2017, will start the PCT. Will saunter as long as body and sense of humor are intact.

  19. #59

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    Good article. Everyone here should read.

    "Snow will make thru hiking the PCT harder, but maybe not impossible"

    Not exactly encouraging though.

  20. #60

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