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  1. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by PennyPincher View Post
    What happens when you are NOBO number 1351 or Section hiker #841?
    This happens.
    Teej

    "[ATers] represent three percent of our use and about twenty percent of our effort," retired Baxter Park Director Jensen Bissell.

  2. #22

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    It's dumb. They lectured the ATC about numbers of people. Now they have turned around and compressed the bubbles of NOBOs and SOBOs. It'll be a race to get the permits. Late starters will be penalized. The compressed bubbles will run up and down the trail as a result. The ATC was working on spreading out those bubbles with the registration dates.
    "Sleepy alligator in the noonday sun
    Sleepin by the river just like he usually done
    Call for his whisky
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  3. #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by MuddyWaters View Post
    Not BSP, but ATC might be contemplating permits and required shelter reservations , ala gsmnp, in GA as well......

    The times, they are a changing...
    My daughter's photos from her section in last March's GA & NC sections were nuts. 60 people at shelters and garbage everywhere. Crazy.
    Teej

    "[ATers] represent three percent of our use and about twenty percent of our effort," retired Baxter Park Director Jensen Bissell.

  4. #24
    imscotty's Avatar
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    It will be a race north. This will compress 'the bubble.' Looks like BSP figures that is the ATC's problem. I do not get the sense that they are working together on this.
    “For of all sad words of tongue or pen,
    the saddest are these, 'It might have been.”


    John Greenleaf Whittier

  5. #25

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    coincidently semantics say if you hike over katahdin starting via one of the other trails a trip down hunt doesn't require a permit. the wording clearly stats using hunt to access baxter peak from katahdin stream.
    "Go confidently in the direction of your dreams. Live the life you have imagined."

  6. #26
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    Reading the document, it doesn't appear they are stopping anyone from hiking. Rather, they are making it more complicated if you don't have a permit. Surely they would post at the kiosk that permits are gone, saving someone from hiking in to KSC only to find out they can't stay at the Birches. A nobo would then have to hike or hitch to the visitor's center to obtain a campsite (if available). I wonder how shuttles work? It'll probably be sorted out by the time I get there, not going to worry about it.

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  7. #27

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    No real way to verify actual status. A south bound hiker could be a section hiker, flip flopper, or actual SOBO. Even the actual SOBO doesn't know, the majority don't complete. The north bound hikers, no way to verify. Considering some percentage of north bounders skip sections of the trail (you all know who you are), they are going to chew through section and flip-flop permits. Fall sectioners and flip-floppers are going to be shut out. Further amplifying the bubble as they scramble to arrive earlier in the park.

    It's just a cap mainly with a bunch of extra paper work thrown in.
    "Sleepy alligator in the noonday sun
    Sleepin by the river just like he usually done
    Call for his whisky
    He can call for his tea
    Call all he wanta but he can't call me..."
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  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by imscotty View Post
    It will be a race north. This will compress 'the bubble.' Looks like BSP figures that is the ATC's problem. I do not get the sense that they are working together on this.
    Agreed. Also, this encourages people to start stupidly early. Why start in April when the weather is favorable, when you know there are thousands who started in February who are ahead of you?

  9. #29
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    Wow, I expected that something would change, but I figured they'd ease into it.
    SO VERY GLAD we did Katahdin last year!

  10. #30
    Registered User Engine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alligator View Post
    It's dumb. They lectured the ATC about numbers of people. Now they have turned around and compressed the bubbles of NOBOs and SOBOs. It'll be a race to get the permits. Late starters will be penalized. The compressed bubbles will run up and down the trail as a result. The ATC was working on spreading out those bubbles with the registration dates.
    That's exactly what I thought, the numbers of hikers leaving earlier will increase dramatically and essentially the bubble will occur earlier in the season. Success rates will drop due to increased weather exposure, and fewer hikers will arrive at BSP...ahah...now I think I might better understand their thinking...
    “He is richest who is content with the least, for content is the wealth of nature.” –Socrates

  11. #31

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    They did not discuss daily limits for nobo permits
    Maybe there are none
    But given the capacity of the birches, and previous nature of their complaints, maybe not

    There may be some details yet to be disclosed or that will develop with time.
    Last edited by MuddyWaters; 02-02-2017 at 08:30.

  12. #32
    imscotty's Avatar
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    What if this is a two-pronged attack on the problem? ATC implements a permit system designed to spread hikers out over time, BST designs a system that limits overall numbers.
    “For of all sad words of tongue or pen,
    the saddest are these, 'It might have been.”


    John Greenleaf Whittier

  13. #33
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    Compared to last year's Kennebec ferry numbers, they will issue approximately 150 more nobo and 200 more sobo permits. That's around a 12% increase for nobos. While I can see huge bubbles racing up the trail to secure a permit, slow and steady will be OK, too.

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  14. #34
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    There are still more than enough permits. Though there will be many people starting their hikes, there will most likely not be a whole lot more (this year vs last year) who actually complete their hikes NOBO.

    The AT hiker permit has to be picked up in person, so that does decrease the likelihood of people not using their permit.

    This is really nothing to panic over - One can still get up the Hunt Trail if there are no more NOBO permits left. You would just need to enter the park via the Togue Pond Gate with a day use permit, or regular campsite permit (that includes day use). It really is not too hard to get a day use permit, as long as you aren't aiming for a weekend. I imagine the Monson Vsitor's Center would be able to let you know how many permits are currently available by the time you get to Monson. This would allow for pre-planning.

  15. #35

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    I foresee a fair amount more stealth camping
    "Go confidently in the direction of your dreams. Live the life you have imagined."

  16. #36

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    Quote Originally Posted by Krippledprophet View Post
    I foresee a fair amount more stealth camping
    Are you saying you expect folks to stealth just short of Abol in the DLWA with intent to summit as a day trip or did you mean you expect folks to illegally camp inside the park boundaries?
    “The man who goes alone can start today; but he who travels with another must wait until that other is ready...”~Henry David Thoreau

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  17. #37

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    Quote Originally Posted by Engine View Post
    That's exactly what I thought, the numbers of hikers leaving earlier will increase dramatically and essentially the bubble will occur earlier in the season. Success rates will drop due to increased weather exposure, and fewer hikers will arrive at BSP...ahah...now I think I might better understand their thinking...
    I can agree with that last part to some degree but I do think it's more of a bubble compression in time rather than shifting dates. A lot of hikers don't like to winter hike, so there will still be a concept of an earliest start date after which the majority of hikers will consider beginning.

    Now on the northern terminus, there's a relatively fixed start time as BSP opens the trails. The Park Authority particularly complained about unprepared SOBO hikers. This action increases the pressure to start early.
    "Sleepy alligator in the noonday sun
    Sleepin by the river just like he usually done
    Call for his whisky
    He can call for his tea
    Call all he wanta but he can't call me..."
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  18. #38
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  19. #39

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zed View Post
    Compared to last year's Kennebec ferry numbers, they will issue approximately 150 more nobo and 200 more sobo permits. That's around a 12% increase for nobos. While I can see huge bubbles racing up the trail to secure a permit, slow and steady will be OK, too.

    Sent from my SM-T800 using Tapatalk
    Quote Originally Posted by Water Rat View Post
    There are still more than enough permits. Though there will be many people starting their hikes, there will most likely not be a whole lot more (this year vs last year) who actually complete their hikes NOBO.

    The AT hiker permit has to be picked up in person, so that does decrease the likelihood of people not using their permit.

    This is really nothing to panic over - One can still get up the Hunt Trail if there are no more NOBO permits left. You would just need to enter the park via the Togue Pond Gate with a day use permit, or regular campsite permit (that includes day use). It really is not too hard to get a day use permit, as long as you aren't aiming for a weekend. I imagine the Monson Vsitor's Center would be able to let you know how many permits are currently available by the time you get to Monson. This would allow for pre-planning.
    If their growth model is correct, then within a year or two, the cap will be reached. I'm not saying their model is correct as I have not examined the numbers closely. I will take a look though when I get a chance to grab them.

    As far as the AT Hiker permits not being used Water Rat, it seems like you are thinkiing that they are assigned ahead of time? I didn't read it that way. It says you can get one when you get there, if there are any left, I didn't see anything about signing up.

    Not panicking here, I just think they are exacerbating the problem.
    "Sleepy alligator in the noonday sun
    Sleepin by the river just like he usually done
    Call for his whisky
    He can call for his tea
    Call all he wanta but he can't call me..."
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  20. #40

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    Quote Originally Posted by imscotty View Post
    What if this is a two-pronged attack on the problem? ATC implements a permit system designed to spread hikers out over time, BST designs a system that limits overall numbers.
    With BSP's cap being mandatory, and so far the ATC has been using a voluntary approach, hikers are very likely to priortize the mandatory constraint.

    From the linked letter, it looks like the park went ahead with its own decisions. I'm going to look for the minutes for the BSP Authority. Might shed some light on this. Any further letters since last fall to the ATC from them?
    "Sleepy alligator in the noonday sun
    Sleepin by the river just like he usually done
    Call for his whisky
    He can call for his tea
    Call all he wanta but he can't call me..."
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