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  1. #1
    Registered User meat803's Avatar
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    Default 2017 numbers?

    Any input as to how crowded the trail will be this year? I'm considering doing another thru but not if is is going to be the gaggle that it was last year. Has the Hollywood hysteria died down yet?
    AT, Long Trail, Loyalsock Trail, Art Loeb Trail, Cranberry Lake 50, Foothills Trail, PCT, CDT, Uinta Highline Trail, Lone Star Trail, Oregon Coast Trail, Sheltowee Trace Trail, BMT, AZT


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    Registered User Huli's Avatar
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    There is a graph put out by the ATC, I got the link on WB... Will link it here if I can find it again.

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    Registered User Huli's Avatar
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    Like magic!
    http://www.appalachiantrail.org/home...tration-charts

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  4. #4
    Registered User meat803's Avatar
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    Yeah I found that but would need to know comparable numbers on this day a year ago to compare. Does anyone remember?

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    2016 numbers are on the same page, scroll to the bottom.

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    Registered User Engine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by meat803 View Post
    Any input as to how crowded the trail will be this year? I'm considering doing another thru but not if is is going to be the gaggle that it was last year. Has the Hollywood hysteria died down yet?
    No, and I wouldn't expect it to soon, if ever. Once the numbers climb, it's kind of self perpetuating. If you look at the chart for 2017 registrations so far, March 1st and 15th are already in the red from both the Approach Trail and Springer. There are already around 50 hikers starting their hikes on both of those days alone, and you can expect MANY more to register yet. It's going to be a banner year...or not, depending on your view.
    “He is richest who is content with the least, for content is the wealth of nature.” –Socrates

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    There was no Hollywood hysteria. No stampede to hike the trail. We had the usual number of hikers last year and will have the usual numbers this year. If the US population goes up 1% then the number of hikers will also go up. There is no real science in the numbers, no accurate count has ever been done and may not be possible. ATC estimates for past numbers was high. The only real data in the past was "sign in at the start of the approach trail", "drop in's at Harpers Ferry" and"sign in at Baxter" This data is poor at best, not everybody does the approach trail, not everyone drops by the ATC and not everyone is truthful. The high estimates were part of the "trail promotion" effort by the ATC. Now the data is being used as part of the effort to reduce crowding conditions on the Southern end during March and April. Are the numbers going up, probably. What influences this increase,... who knows?

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    Quote Originally Posted by moldy View Post
    There was no Hollywood hysteria. No stampede to hike the trail. We had the usual number of hikers last year and will have the usual numbers this year. If the US population goes up 1% then the number of hikers will also go up. There is no real science in the numbers, no accurate count has ever been done and may not be possible. ATC estimates for past numbers was high. The only real data in the past was "sign in at the start of the approach trail", "drop in's at Harpers Ferry" and"sign in at Baxter" This data is poor at best, not everybody does the approach trail, not everyone drops by the ATC and not everyone is truthful. The high estimates were part of the "trail promotion" effort by the ATC. Now the data is being used as part of the effort to reduce crowding conditions on the Southern end during March and April. Are the numbers going up, probably. What influences this increase,... who knows?
    Kennebec ferry thru hiker totals showed 18.5% increase in nobo reaching that point last year, and startling increases in SOBO and flipflops as well. 36.8% increase in SOBO, and 74% increase in flipfloppers. Which show the ATC efforts to promote alternatives are somewhat working to dissuade a few from the nobo herd.

    It is not correct to say the "usual" numbers, as they were clearly much higher across the board.

    In total, there were 28% more hikers at Kennebec identifying themselves as thru hikers.

    28%.
    Last edited by MuddyWaters; 01-07-2017 at 18:39.

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    Registered User Engine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MuddyWaters View Post
    Kennebec ferry thru hiker totals showed 18.5% increase in nobo reaching that point last year, and startling increases in SOBO and flipflops as well. 36.8% increase in SOBO, and 74% increase in flipfloppers. Which show the ATC efforts to promote alternatives are somewhat working to dissuade a few from the nobo herd.

    It is not correct to say the "usual" numbers, as they were clearly much higher across the board.

    In total, there were 28% more hikers at Kennebec identifying themselves as thru hikers.

    28%.

    Exactly, the ATC has expressly noted the dramatic increase and is taking an active interest in trying to reduce the impact of the increased numbers.
    “He is richest who is content with the least, for content is the wealth of nature.” –Socrates

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by Engine View Post
    Exactly, the ATC has expressly noted the dramatic increase and is taking an active interest in trying to reduce the impact of the increased numbers.
    Please tell!

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    Registered User Engine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by swisscross View Post
    Please tell!
    Spend a few minutes on their website...
    “He is richest who is content with the least, for content is the wealth of nature.” –Socrates

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    Quote Originally Posted by moldy View Post
    There was no Hollywood hysteria. No stampede to hike the trail. We had the usual number of hikers last year and will have the usual numbers this year. If the US population goes up 1% then the number of hikers will also go up. There is no real science in the numbers, no accurate count has ever been done and may not be possible. ATC estimates for past numbers was high. The only real data in the past was "sign in at the start of the approach trail", "drop in's at Harpers Ferry" and"sign in at Baxter" This data is poor at best, not everybody does the approach trail, not everyone drops by the ATC and not everyone is truthful. The high estimates were part of the "trail promotion" effort by the ATC. Now the data is being used as part of the effort to reduce crowding conditions on the Southern end during March and April. Are the numbers going up, probably. What influences this increase,... who knows?
    Last year Easter was in March, make sense if people started during Easter Break.

  13. #13

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    I attempted a thru in April 2015, but had to leave the trail in the Smokies. I didn't mind seeing a lot of people on the trail, but some of the campsites I stayed at were way overcrowded and obviously not very good for their local environments (Hawk Mountain and Lance Creek come to mind). This year, I am attempting a thru again; however, I am opting to take the Benton MacKaye Trail from Springer to the Smokies. The BMT seems to be a ready-made solution to this problem. If a fraction of hikers took this route, it would go a long way toward relieving congestion on the AT in the south during the spring bubble. I can't wait to experience it myself.

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    Ugh, now im worried its going to be packed when i hike.

    maybe i can just do sprints the first couple of weeks to get out ahead. then blow out my legs and hobble the rest of the way to Maine.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Oventoasted View Post
    Ugh, now im worried its going to be packed when i hike.

    maybe i can just do sprints the first couple of weeks to get out ahead. then blow out my legs and hobble the rest of the way to Maine.
    Avoid starting on a weekend, and especially avoid March 1, 15, 17, April 1, and 15. The numbers from prior years will provide a good indicator of when you should leave to avoid the greatest numbers. That's how we eneded up choosing March 8th, midweek and between the high points of the 1st and 15th. But, based on the number the ATC is showing already registered (as of Jan. 5th) for our chosen day, there are currently 13 starting from Amicalola and 11 at Springer. It's still early, more will register and many will hike without registration.

    There are currently 46 total registered for March 1st and 50 on March 15th. Also, keep in mind these numbers will quickly bleed over into groups starting on adjacent days as some hikers will be much slower and some faster.

    The dates with the lowest number of registered hikers as of this morning are:

    Anything in February

    March 3 - 8 total

    March 9 - 7 total

    March 18 - 6 total

    March 19 - 8 total

    From March 23 on, it's not too bad as of right now.
    “He is richest who is content with the least, for content is the wealth of nature.” –Socrates

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    Registered User Christoph's Avatar
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    Not sure about the numbers game, but I started on April 19th, 2015 headed North from the falls. My "number" was 1286. In the 43 days I hiked and ultimately ended my attempt just past Daleville on the parkway. Passed a few groups but nothing crazy where I couldn't have any solitude where i spent the night or insane crowds along the way. The biggest (and best) impact I had on my hike was the amount of trash/poo/etc... For the most part, the trail was very clean, shelters were exactly what I expected (maybe a little better), and while some privy's were close to full it wasn't the horror stories I've heard about. Honestly, I wouldn't worry about numbers unless you're starting on one of the high volume days, but people will thin out as they go.
    - Trail name: Thumper

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    What's with the ridiculous animosity towards the ATC?

    Anyway, the active interest I've seen recently is the promotion of alternative thru hikes of the AT, like creative flip-flops, to spread out folks and ease the crowding. Good for the ATC!

  18. #18
    Registered User Engine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by colorado_rob View Post
    What's with the ridiculous animosity towards the ATC?

    Anyway, the active interest I've seen recently is the promotion of alternative thru hikes of the AT, like creative flip-flops, to spread out folks and ease the crowding. Good for the ATC!
    Thank you CR for stating what my lack of patience wouldn't allow me to.
    “He is richest who is content with the least, for content is the wealth of nature.” –Socrates

  19. #19

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    I think the ATC is working to mute the increasing number of NOBO's that leave in Mar and Apr. The voluntary registration is a great idea, but sadly one only needs to look at the number of hikers that still sign up for the 1st and the 15th of those months, when there are adjacent days with far fewer planned starts.

    As Muddy stated, clearly the ATC's promotion of Flip/Flops has been successful, but too many hikers are still doing exactly what they want. I think a compulsory registration has to be somewhere in the future, as too many in the hiker community do not want to police themselves. There are ways to drive compliance of a controlled permit system, even with the thousands of points of ingress and egress on the trail.

  20. #20
    Registered User Fireplug's Avatar
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    I started April 1st in 2016. I was hiker 32 that day started at 2 pm. Not sure where they all went NEVER seen more than 15 to 20 at a shelter. Either way if your worried about too many people either start earlier or do a SOBO OR FLIP FLOP. Me. I don't care about to many people by Franklin it will be thinned way out, if not sooner.

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