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Thread: 2017 numbers?

  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by meat803 View Post
    Any input as to how crowded the trail will be this year? I'm considering doing another thru but not if is is going to be the gaggle that it was last year. Has the Hollywood hysteria died down yet?
    Here's a thought. Having done it once, and having observed the crowding, etc. -- maybe consider one of many alternative thru hikes that will get you out of the crowds? Or just hike elsewhere. PCT, CDT, CT, LT, or roll your own.

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    Quote Originally Posted by moldy View Post
    There was no Hollywood hysteria. No stampede to hike the trail. We had the usual number of hikers last year and will have the usual numbers this year. If the US population goes up 1% then the number of hikers will also go up. There is no real science in the numbers, no accurate count has ever been done and may not be possible. ATC estimates for past numbers was high. The only real data in the past was "sign in at the start of the approach trail", "drop in's at Harpers Ferry" and"sign in at Baxter" This data is poor at best, not everybody does the approach trail, not everyone drops by the ATC and not everyone is truthful. The high estimates were part of the "trail promotion" effort by the ATC. Now the data is being used as part of the effort to reduce crowding conditions on the Southern end during March and April. Are the numbers going up, probably. What influences this increase,... who knows?
    Last year Easter was in March, make sense if people started during Easter Break.

  3. #23

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    I attempted a thru in April 2015, but had to leave the trail in the Smokies. I didn't mind seeing a lot of people on the trail, but some of the campsites I stayed at were way overcrowded and obviously not very good for their local environments (Hawk Mountain and Lance Creek come to mind). This year, I am attempting a thru again; however, I am opting to take the Benton MacKaye Trail from Springer to the Smokies. The BMT seems to be a ready-made solution to this problem. If a fraction of hikers took this route, it would go a long way toward relieving congestion on the AT in the south during the spring bubble. I can't wait to experience it myself.

  4. #24
    Registered User Oventoasted's Avatar
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    Ugh, now im worried its going to be packed when i hike.

    maybe i can just do sprints the first couple of weeks to get out ahead. then blow out my legs and hobble the rest of the way to Maine.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oventoasted View Post
    Ugh, now im worried its going to be packed when i hike.

    maybe i can just do sprints the first couple of weeks to get out ahead. then blow out my legs and hobble the rest of the way to Maine.
    Avoid starting on a weekend, and especially avoid March 1, 15, 17, April 1, and 15. The numbers from prior years will provide a good indicator of when you should leave to avoid the greatest numbers. That's how we eneded up choosing March 8th, midweek and between the high points of the 1st and 15th. But, based on the number the ATC is showing already registered (as of Jan. 5th) for our chosen day, there are currently 13 starting from Amicalola and 11 at Springer. It's still early, more will register and many will hike without registration.

    There are currently 46 total registered for March 1st and 50 on March 15th. Also, keep in mind these numbers will quickly bleed over into groups starting on adjacent days as some hikers will be much slower and some faster.

    The dates with the lowest number of registered hikers as of this morning are:

    Anything in February

    March 3 - 8 total

    March 9 - 7 total

    March 18 - 6 total

    March 19 - 8 total

    From March 23 on, it's not too bad as of right now.
    “He is richest who is content with the least, for content is the wealth of nature.” –Socrates

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by swisscross View Post
    active interest? As in ignoring the issue of over use?
    much like the Catholic Church covering up the abuse of their youth.
    Counting hikers is being compared to the decades long systematic rape of children? You are lost.

  7. #27

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    So I just tried to register and it says that I can't leave between March 15 and March 25 from Springer...... The only option I can pick is flip flop.....

    If they want real numbers they should allow for us to select the days we are leaving from and from what point.

    Flutch

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    Quote Originally Posted by flutch View Post
    So I just tried to register and it says that I can't leave between March 15 and March 25 from Springer...... The only option I can pick is flip flop.....

    If they want real numbers they should allow for us to select the days we are leaving from and from what point.

    Flutch
    ?????? Really? Someone is somehow restricting starts dates? This is new, right?

  9. #29
    Registered User Engine's Avatar
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    Registration isn't mandatory or binding, so even though they place a cap on daily registration numbers, it doesn't restrict someone from leaving on that date.

    Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk
    “He is richest who is content with the least, for content is the wealth of nature.” –Socrates

  10. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by Engine View Post
    Registration isn't mandatory or binding, so even though they place a cap on daily registration numbers, it doesn't restrict someone from leaving on that date.

    Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk
    I agree. Still leaving from Springer.

    Flutch

  11. #31

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    Nobody will stop you from starting whenever you want...
    They are only making a "strong recommendation"
    If you are dead-set on your date, just don't register and go to Springer when you want

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Engine View Post
    Registration isn't mandatory or binding, so even though they place a cap on daily registration numbers, it doesn't restrict someone from leaving on that date.

    Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk
    Aha, I see, makes sense, I sure would have been surprised if some authority was restricting things at Springer. that would have to be a Chattagoo-chee (no idea how to spell that!) NF thing, right?

    So, by at least implying there is some sort of limit at Springer, the ATC is really trying to steer folks towards the flip-flop thing, which again, is fantastic. Again, good for them.

  13. #33
    Registered User boshettee's Avatar
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    If getting the yellow ATC tag is a must then make up any date you want.

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by colorado_rob View Post

    So, by at least implying there is some sort of limit at Springer, the ATC is really trying to steer folks towards the flip-flop thing, which again, is fantastic. Again, good for them.
    And if people dont voluntarily abide, it wont stay voluntary much longer.
    "Inevitably, a long distance hiker must choose between travelling light, and not travelling at all." - Earl V. Shaffer

  15. #35

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    Quote Originally Posted by MuddyWaters View Post
    And if people dont voluntarily abide, it wont stay voluntary much longer.
    You really think they'll have a checkpoint at Springer Mountain?
    If it comes to that, it's fair to say that some will just head north from USFS 42

  16. #36

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    Or it could be required to possess a permit for the entire trail length, but then who enforces that?
    Volunteers? Make the overworked NPS work even harder? USFS personnel?
    What penalty? Fined? Kicked off the trail for trespassing?
    Very slippery slope indeed

  17. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Engine View Post
    Avoid starting on a weekend, and especially avoid March 1, 15, 17, April 1, and 15. The numbers from prior years will provide a good indicator of when you should leave to avoid the greatest numbers. That's how we eneded up choosing March 8th, midweek and between the high points of the 1st and 15th. But, based on the number the ATC is showing already registered (as of Jan. 5th) for our chosen day, there are currently 13 starting from Amicalola and 11 at Springer. It's still early, more will register and many will hike without registration.

    There are currently 46 total registered for March 1st and 50 on March 15th. Also, keep in mind these numbers will quickly bleed over into groups starting on adjacent days as some hikers will be much slower and some faster.

    The dates with the lowest number of registered hikers as of this morning are:

    Anything in February

    March 3 - 8 total

    March 9 - 7 total

    March 18 - 6 total

    March 19 - 8 total

    From March 23 on, it's not too bad as of right now.
    Not too major, but it actually looks like the first "red line" on the AFSP section is on Feb 28th and not March 1st (though March 1st isn't far behind)? Where the ones for Springer itself are March 1st & 15th.

  18. #38
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    Theres already a serious public health hazard created that the atc and nps are so far complicit in.

    Gsmnp is the first potential throttle point using existing trail management. How many will hike nobo if they had to skip it? And skip SNP. And cant enter BSP.

    These days are right around corner.
    "Inevitably, a long distance hiker must choose between travelling light, and not travelling at all." - Earl V. Shaffer

  19. #39

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    Make both the traditional ATC and BMT "official" routes down south, register for either one...
    By the end of the Smokies, the health hazard is much less anyway, correct?

  20. #40

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    An option for Springer NoBo AT overcrowding,
    Make the traditional AT and the BMT as both "official" routes down south, and let folks register for one or the other,
    By the end of GSMNP, the health hazard is much less of a concern anyway, correct?
    Crowds are thinned/spread out significantly by then.

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