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  1. #61
    Registered User Venchka's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rybir View Post
    I am honestly nervous about being out there in October, but really want to be in the Sierras and NW Cali.
    Ok. You're sticking to the PCT-Bigfoot Trail route? Starting where on the PCT? Assuming seasonal closings of some resupply locations, have you determined how many days of food you will need to carry?
    A trick I read online, probably here at WhiteBlaze. After packing the food container, fill the voids, nooks and crannies with Minute Rice or something similar.
    Wayne


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  2. #62

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    Quote Originally Posted by Venchka View Post
    Ok. You're sticking to the PCT-Bigfoot Trail route? Starting where on the PCT? Assuming seasonal closings of some resupply locations, have you determined how many days of food you will need to carry?
    A trick I read online, probably here at WhiteBlaze. After packing the food container, fill the voids, nooks and crannies with Minute Rice or something similar.
    Wayne


    Old. Slow. "Smarter than the average bear."
    Yes, PCT to Bigfoot. The original plan was to go from Walkers Pass (50.8 miles south of Kennedy Meadows). I am reviewing my resupply strategy and only a few points stick out as possible issues.

    1. Kennedy Meadows General Store (this is open into November, so actually this shouldn't be an issue)
    2. Tuolomne Meadows (if this is an issue It would be about a 6 day carry from Mammoth Lakes, which is doable)
    3. Sonora Pass Hwy 108 (I plan on using the Sonora Pass Resupply service. I called and they said that as long as the roads are clear they keep on delivering into October.
    4. Burney Mountain Guest Ranch (This is possibly the second to last resupply until I transfer over to the BFT. I talked to them and they stay open until mid-October, however they are flexible because they live on property.)

    Other than those, I will just have to rely on the sure bet larger towns. That definitely isn't ideal because that means more hitching and such. I am not nervous about actual hitching at all. It's more so the unreliability of it and the idea of just standing on the side of a highway for a long time when I could, in fact, be standing on the trail.

  3. #63

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    BUT, something tells me a less defined trail and concerns about water availability (Arizona Trail or CDT SoBo) would be a bit more stressful than long food carries, possible snow (assuming it's not extreme dump of course) and hitching into town. A great juncture for more conversation WB! Haha

  4. #64

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    Quote Originally Posted by DLP View Post
    I can't post details for a couple of weeks , but it is possible to cram 9 nights of food into large bear cans.

    You want want to choose your food carefully. For example, mac and cheese, with all the little air holes, is bad. Spaghetti is good.

    Seven nights of (not too obsessively chosen) food in large can ---> Attachment 35973

    There are also bear boxes scattered in SEKI. It is possible to begin your hike so that you are camping near the boxes the first few nights. Warning: the bear boxes are not mouse proof and my sister lost a few meals on one trip.
    Thank you. Very very comforting to see this. I am really committed to using a bear canister the entire trail if I do PCT to Bigfoot. Maybe I won't need it in the sense of practicality the whole way, but due to having zero experience alone out there I think the mental comforts the canister will provide will go a long way.

  5. #65

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    Well, maybe starting in October won't be be too troublesome snow wise:

    Thoughts about the weather for fall of 2016:
    Old Farmer Almanac came out with its Winter Outlook for CA. Colder than normal and dryer than normal. They claim that their forecasts are 80%
    The Dweebs agree that the Fall/Winter has a below normal bias for temperatures with the Trof in the West. Arctic air will probably spill west into the Great Basin several times during the late Fall and Winter of 2016/2017. This will bring Mammoth some pretty cold weather at times.
    ENSO: With a weak La Nina, there is not much bias in precipitation one way or another. As mentioned before, the MJO has its best effect upon the west coast during “weak” (-.05C) La Nina Winters with a higher probably of AR events. So it may be that most of our precipitation will fall during short period high intensity precip events this winter.
    Folklore: Rumors of a wet winter because of what is happening in the Southern Hemisphere is just that……Rumors that have no scientific bases…..Coincidence is not science.

  6. #66
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    Tuolumne Meadows store closes at Labor Day. Tioga Road stays open later, but store packs up.

    Once the roads close mid-November (on average), there's really no hitches. You'll just have to walk to towns.

    What is your start date?

  7. #67
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    From Rybir: "So it may be that most of our precipitation will fall during short period high intensity precip events this winter."

    This is how it snows here. It will DUMP snow for a week, and may not snow again for two weeks. We can end November at 200% snow pack and get zero snow in December.

    Percipitation + cold = snow.



  8. #68
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    PS Photo above of bear can shows food for a one week summer hike with an average of 2400 calories a day. That is WAY different from winter thru hiking. Just thought of that.
    Last edited by DLP; 08-24-2016 at 11:15.

  9. #69

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    Quote Originally Posted by DLP View Post
    Tuolumne Meadows store closes at Labor Day. Tioga Road stays open later, but store packs up.

    Once the roads close mid-November (on average), there's really no hitches. You'll just have to walk to towns.

    What is your start date?
    Mid October. So I may start farther north considering the later start date.

  10. #70

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    Quote Originally Posted by DLP View Post
    PS Photo above of bear can shows food for a one week summer hike with an average of 2400 calories a day. That is WAY different from winter hiking.
    How so? More calories burned in the summer?

  11. #71

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    Quote Originally Posted by DLP View Post
    From Rybir: "So it may be that most of our precipitation will fall during short period high intensity precip events this winter."

    This is how it snows here. It will DUMP snow for a week, and may not snow again for two weeks. We can end November at 200% snow pack and get zero snow in December.

    Percipitation + cold = snow.



    Right, but the good news the forecast is looking (still early) that these snow events will be pushed back into the winter. It could have suggested a fall dump.

  12. #72
    Registered User colorado_rob's Avatar
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    With due respect Rybir, you're doing what I do way too often: Over analyzing! Just pick a spot to hike and go hike. Have a lower-altitude backup plan in case when you start hiking the actual weather forecast, the short-term forecast, is looking bleak.

    Relying on a farmers almanac or other hocus-pocus forecasts for longer term planning is downright silly. Just my HO.

    Here's an excerpt from a CNN article:

    http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/19/living...accuracy-feat/

    "Both (the Old Farmer's Almanac and its competition, the Farmers' Almanac) claim high accuracy rates (around 80 percent) but have never published evidence backing them up. They lack transparency and keep their methods 'closely guarded,' " wrote the Washington Post's Jason Samenow in 2013.

    Added Dennis Mersereau of Gawker's "The Vane," "The Old Farmer's Almanac is to meteorology what astrology is to astronomy."
    Last edited by colorado_rob; 08-24-2016 at 11:31.

  13. #73

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    Quote Originally Posted by colorado_rob View Post
    With due respect Rybir, you're doing what I do way too often: Over analyzing! Just pick a spot to hike and go hike. Have a lower-altitude backup plan in case when you start hiking the actual weather forecast, the short-term forecast, is looking bleak.

    Relying on a farmers almanac or other hocus-pocus forecasts for longer term planning is downright silly. Just my HO.

    Here's an excerpt from a CNN article:

    http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/19/living...accuracy-feat/

    "Both (the Old Farmer's Almanac and its competition, the Farmers' Almanac) claim high accuracy rates (around 80 percent) but have never published evidence backing them up. They lack transparency and keep their methods 'closely guarded,' " wrote the Washington Post's Jason Samenow in 2013.


    Added Dennis Mersereau of Gawker's "The Vane," "The Old Farmer's Almanac is to meteorology what astrology is to astronomy."
    Over-analysis is my forte. I agree with the with the Farmer's Almanac stuff, however I was happier more so to read the ENSO predictions. Thanks for your input.

  14. #74
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    Yeah. No way to predict October or November's weather.

    Last year was El Niño and we ended the year with less than average snow pack. By the way, there is still snow on Tahoe passes from our low snow year. Dick's Pass, August 7.
    image.jpeg
    image.jpeg

    La Niña... We will get either average snow, more than average, or less than average. Something like that. Get back to me next May and I'll let you know how correct the predictions were. ❄️❄️

    I suspect that you will have a ball on the JMT while the weather is good. Hoping you have a lot of common sense in real life.

    Got to to stop typing on little phone before I go blind! Have a good week!

  15. #75

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    Quote Originally Posted by DLP View Post
    Yeah. No way to predict October or November's weather.

    Last year was El Niño and we ended the year with less than average snow pack. By the way, there is still snow on Tahoe passes from our low snow year. Dick's Pass, August 7.
    image.jpeg
    image.jpeg

    La Niña... We will get either average snow, more than average, or less than average. Something like that. Get back to me next May and I'll let you know how correct the predictions were. ❄️❄️

    I suspect that you will have a ball on the JMT while the weather is good. Hoping you have a lot of common sense in real life.

    Got to to stop typing on little phone before I go blind! Have a good week!
    Haha, thank you. Yeah, keep those eyes good for more hiking! Thank you for enlightening me on weather.

  16. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rybir View Post
    Right, but the good news the forecast is looking (still early) that these snow events will be pushed back into the winter. It could have suggested a fall dump.
    Dude. October and November is the Sierras IS winter.

  17. #77

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    Quote Originally Posted by DLP View Post
    Dude. October and November is the Sierras IS winter.
    I will be changing to a 10 degree bag in that case. And a higher fill down jacket

  18. #78
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    Snapshot of Mammoth Lakes hi and lo temps last year. That's a normal year. You can Google October and November.
    image.png

  19. #79

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    Quote Originally Posted by DLP View Post
    Snapshot of Mammoth Lakes hi and lo temps last year. That's a normal year. You can Google October and November.
    image.png

    holy
    smokes.

  20. #80

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    I currently have a hooded Western Mountaineering Flash Jacket. 3 oz of fill. I think upping to something of at least 6 oz would be necessary for that. I really do not know though. Maybe just great layering with the Flash Hoody would be great.

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