Karl Meltzer, 2016 AT record attempt

[Odd Man Out]

He is not giving a lot of details on exact locations. But he does give precise mileages for a couple days. Using the THC data, I look for road crossings in about the right locations that are the designated distances apart. With this I speculate he was at County Rd 319 on 19. Hiking 35.2 miles on day 20 puts him at Camp Road (which was also posted above). He said he had a good day on Day 21 so let's assume he did 55.2 miles to Bake Oven Knob Rd. This works since the only two road crossings that are exactly 16.4 miles apart (the distance listed for day 22) in that area are Bake Oven Knob Rd and Hawk Mtn Rd (for day 22). Based on these assumptions he is after day 22 behind SJ by 32 miles and ahead of JPD by 1.4 miles.

day	total miles	location	day miles
18	805.1	Arden Valley Rd	54.8
19	850.1	County Rd 319?	45.0
20	885.3	Camp Road?	35.2
21	940.5	Bake Oven Knob Rd?	55.2
22	956.9	Hawk Mtn Rd?	16.4

Capture.PNG

[Odd Man Out]

Sorry, ignore the incorrect attached graph in the last post.

[Angle]

He also had a 32 mile day in PA, but don't count him out. He is one tough dude. After all it is just walking.

Correction...The Red Bull site reports 35.5 miles.

[Engine]

Correction...The Red Bull site reports 35.5 miles.

There is no correction required, you are talking about 2 different days. There was a 32 and a 35.5, in addition to the 16.4 and a 35.2 a few days ago....those 4 days combine for a net loss of almost 70 miles on Jurek's record pace. I know Karl had a cushion built, but it wasn't 70 miles of cushion and he wasn't injured. Which, according to the post on the site today, is bothering him a great deal.

[Angle]

Looks like he was at the gravel rd before I-81 at mile 1006.7 on Thursday night and in Duncannon Friday evening.

[Scrum]

Scott and Jen both had to work though injury/illness that caused them to fall off pace. It was there ability to push through and recover while staying on the trail that allowed them to break the records. Jen writes wonderfully about the ability to heal while hiking. Karl is not being tested. If he can hang in there for a couple more days with out falling to far off pace, he will still has a chance. Like Scott, Karl has the ability to make a huge push at the end - he can go hundreds of miles and multiple days with little sleep. Don't rule him out yet.

[MuddyWaters]

Scott and Jen both had to work though injury/illness that caused them to fall off pace. It was there ability to push through and recover while staying on the trail that allowed them to break the records.

Recovery and healing ability declines precipitously with age. Karl is almost 49.

Staying healthy due to cumulative wear and tear is the challenge, and younger has the advantage. So might Jureks magic diet. Karls an incredible athlete, but so are the others.

This graph shows the slope.

Recovery-Post-Race-FINAL.jpg

[Engine]

...Don't rule him out yet.

I haven't ruled him out at all, I've simply stated that given the information we are receiving from the website it appears to be a long-shot at this point. There is no denying Karl is a hard driven athlete, but as an endurance athlete myself (competitive cyclist and podium finisher at many running events) I can attest to the effects of age MuddyWaters pointed out. Issues I could have almost ignored in my 30s are deal breakers now that 50 has arrived...

[Angle]

Shippensburg Rd. on Sat. evening. Around a 54 mile day.

[jersey joe]

There was just a facebook post with a picture of mileage per day for Karl through day 25. I think this is what we've been waiting for?!?
Let the charts/graphs/analysis begin!

karl_mileage.jpg

[Markus 4345]

There was just a facebook post with a picture of mileage per day for Karl through day 25. I think this is what we've been waiting for?!?
Let the charts/graphs/analysis begin!




karl_mileage.jpg

Exactly, the coverage on the red bull website was not that great so far.

1095.3 miles in 25 days = 43.812 miles per day
Scott Jurek had an average of 47.2 miles per day
http://www.runnersworld.com/trail-ra...ru-hike-record

I think the southern half of the AT is easier but with shin splints it will be difficult for Karl.
He would have to do 53 miles in the next 21 days on average.

I don't know anything about the AT but a lot about multiday running. I think the record is out of the question.

[jersey joe]

Exactly, the coverage on the red bull website was not that great so far.

1095.3 miles in 25 days = 43.812 miles per day
Scott Jurek had an average of 47.2 miles per day
http://www.runnersworld.com/trail-ra...ru-hike-record

I think the southern half of the AT is easier but with shin splints it will be difficult for Karl.
He would have to do 53 miles in the next 21 days on average.

I don't know anything about the AT but a lot about multiday running. I think the record is out of the question.

The northern part of the trail is significantly harder than the south.
A better comparison would be with Jenn Pharr-Davis' southbound hike, which is only a few hours slower than Jurek's hike.
After 25 days Jenn completed 1102 miles which is 44.08 per day.
Karl is pretty much even with Jenn and if he can figure out this injury still has a good shot at this record.

[Markus 4345]

Good to know. But with shin splints it will be very difficult. That is not something that goes away while you are doing hard long running days.

[TJ aka Teej]

I don't know anything about the AT

Karl does.
Comparing Jurek's northbound tally to Karl's southbound miles is a fool's errand.

[Markus 4345]

Of course you can't exactly compare. But the record is only 21 days away and 53 miles per day is a lot when you have shin splints.

[CalebJ]

There was just a facebook post with a picture of mileage per day for Karl through day 25. I think this is what we've been waiting for?!?
Let the charts/graphs/analysis begin!

karl_mileage.jpg

If that's current, I'm putting him around Ridge Road (1099.3) last night. Does that look right to you guys?

[Just Bill]

Karl does.
Comparing Jurek's northbound tally to Karl's southbound miles is a fool's errand.

For our purposes... Jen and Scott are 3 hours apart... on a 46.5 day hike that is 3 hours divided by 2376 hours or .001263 difference.

So yes- for all intents and purposes Scott's dailies (even flipped) don't have a lot of bearing and Scott and Jen pretty well hiked the exact same time for pacing.

If my quickie plug in is right-

On Day 25 Karl was 5.4 miles behind Jen if I plug in the facebook screenshot shown above.

Both encountered shin splints and fell well off pace... So 5.4 miles all things considered is good for suffering an injury.
I'm looking at low 50's (51.5) as a good average to keep it close... which would beat Jen's 49.625 MPD effort for the same section.

While quite possible at this point...
1- We can't say Karl has recovered, although the 53 on day 25 is encouraging. Likely clearing north and central PA will be a big morale boost for him.
2- Assuming he recovers; now he is in a footrace with Jen's times (who was under 30 at the time) on her home turf. That is a tall order for a fella nearing fifty. Everyone agrees that the times that Jen put up on the southern half of the trail are at the limit of what is possible.

Scott, arguably just as strong if not a stronger Ultra runner was zombie walking to the finish. Point being; while both Scott and Karl are capable of ripping off a hundred mile day... it didn't happen for Scott and it's not likely for Karl. Though perhaps he can pull some strong numbers if Scott can help pace him or he smells the barn he's long been chasing and it's close. A 75 mile push in there somewhere would help quite a bit.

My fingers remain crossed for the ol' goat.

[Markus 4345]

Just Bill, I hope you are right.

I think, that Scott Jurek and Karl Meltzer (in his first attempt) underestimated the task of a multiday ultra. It looks a lot easier on paper than it actually is. You can't just throw in a 75 mile day in a multiday effort. Maybe on the very last day. But in the middle, it will just hurt the performance of the next day.

Slow and steady is usually the best method in multiday running (or hiking).

[Angle]

If that's current, I'm putting him around Ridge Road (1099.3) last night. Does that look right to you guys?

He was at mile 1095.9 Sat. Night - Shippensburg Road. I saw him at nine different locations on Sunday morning and at all but 2 of the times he was jogging along looking strong. I had to head home after that, but he was shooting for a big day.

[Chair-man]

Likely clearing north and central PA will be a big morale boost for him.

I have to agree 100%. Getting past the half way mark has got to be a HUUUUUUUUGE physiological lift for Karl. I believe he can now see that tiny spec of light at the end of the long green tunnel. It's all down hill from here. Well, figuratively anyway.