2016 CDT planning, El Nino, snowpack

[Wyoming]

Hi,

Thought I would start a thread which would help folks in their thoughts/plans on the CDT next season. If others have good links on where to look for actual conditions/data please add them in.

We have reached a point where NOAA and other weather forecasting organizations have published long range forecasts for temperature and precipitation outlooks through next winter which include the forecasted effects of the current El Nino. So this means we have reached the point where forecasts with some validity and expertise behind them can be followed and planned from. These NOAA forecasts are continually updated through the season and naturally are more accurate the shorter the timeframe. But they are still very useful already of course.

So, what can be said about the CDT and prospects for thru hiking in 2016 at this point in time.

Southern Rockies:
All forecasts at this time indicate that the southern Rockies are going to see a long winter with above average precipitation and below average temperatures for every forecast period. These forecasts cover from the present time until May 2016. Needless to say this is a strong indication that the San Juans are likely to have a heavy snowpack, a long winter, and a late melt. Note that during the last strong El Nino (which is what we are getting this time) the San Juan snowpack was 150% of normal in May. So expectations at this point are not favorable for any early NOBO thru hikes and quite possibly will mandate late starts into the mountains (Yeti's excepted).

Northern Rockies:
Pretty much the opposite of what is forecast for the southern Rockies (this is typical in an El Nino year). All forecasts indicate above to well above average temperatures with normal precipitation thru May 2016. One could thus expect a lower than normal snowpack and an earlier thru hiking season than normal for SOBO's.

Below are the main links for the forecasts and a useful snowpack link. I follow the El Nino stuff in some depth but will not post links to all that as it is pretty opaque if you are not well versed in the science and have spent a fair amount of time digging around in it. Something to keep in mind is that scientists have been tracking and recording El Nino/La Nina events in depth for only a few decades. Since strong events are pretty uncommon this means that there have been far to few of them for statistical analysis to be able to state what happens in them with a high degree of probability. In other words just because an El Nino is happening does not mean one can predict what will happen in detail at any given location based upon what other El Nino's resulted in. Thus, your best guess forecasts are the long range weather forecasts which are generated from the computer models using current conditions as inputs (these models take into account what ENSO and other macro effects are forecast to be).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...nal.php?lead=1
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...nal.php?lead=2
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...nal.php?lead=3
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...nal.php?lead=4
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...nal.php?lead=5
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product.../ensodisc.html
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/westsnow.pl

I hope this is useful to some. Cheers.

[Spirit Walker]

I wouldn't take these all that seriously at this time. The NWS models are not very accurate. They forecast an el nino last year too, and it didn't happen. FWIW, Farmer's Almanac (which has overall 80% accuracy) says it will be mostly mild and normal to dry along the Rockies this winter but hotter and wetter next summer and cooler next autumn.

[Venchka]

Add to that the late heavy snow in Colorado this year and it makes a start date & NOBO or SOBO direction decision a last minute thing. 2015 on the CDT was a perfect year for a SOBO start the first 2 weeks of July. Folks who left the Mexican border in April thinking they would fly through a snow free Colorado had to flip to Wyoming or Glacier NP. Or quit.
Be flexible. Budget for extra transportation. By all means, have fun!

Wayne

[Mags]

May as well consult a Magic 8 Ball. Far too early to tell.

[burger]

I wouldn't take these all that seriously at this time. The NWS models are not very accurate. They forecast an el nino last year too, and it didn't happen. FWIW, Farmer's Almanac (which has overall 80% accuracy) says it will be mostly mild and normal to dry along the Rockies this winter but hotter and wetter next summer and cooler next autumn.

Actually, there was no el nino last winter (there were some indications it might happen, but it didn't officially become an el nino until March/April of this year), so there was no error in any forecast for last winter.

As for the CDT, I'm with Mags--just relax and let what happens happen. In general, El Nino doesn't necessarily have any predictable effect on Rockies snowpack (but, obviously, it makes a difference for the Sierra Nevada). Any CDT hiker who feels the need to make specific plans for direction of travel and start date this early will just have to live with the possibility that it might be too hot/cold/wet/dry/snowy/etc. to follow through with those plans. Everyone else will hopefully be smart and wait until around mid-winter to see how things are.

[Dogwood]

You're seven months out from a CDT NOBO April start date beginning in southern New Mexico. I'm with Spirit Walker, Venchka, Mags and Burger. Despite the long term weather forecasting and eager desire to pin down weather way too early although I KNOW some want to have their weather questions answered definitively way ahead of time. AND, do understand overwhelmingly most CDTers choose different route options which can have profound effects on snowpack encountered.

IMHO, the CDT is by far the hardest TC trail to pin down in regards to weather. That's one big reason why you see so much leaping around, skipping sections, road walking or lower elevation alternates being taken, very unusual CDT LD hiking itineraries, etc from CDTers. The Rockies, IMHO, in many ways, is a very different beast than the Appalachians and even, to some degree, the Sierra Nevada.



I repeatedly observe leaving too early on either a straight SOBO or NOBO from either the northern or southern termini areas result in all manner of logistical headaches as you attempt to bounce around to avoid the most challenging extensive mileage of deep snow travel usually resulting in missing long awesomely scenic sections of the CDT.

[Dogwood]

When the above happens, it makes me question why people are doing the CDT as a thru-hike in the first place!

[Slo-go'en]

Speaking of the CDT, haven't heard from 10K in a long time, or I missed it. Wondering if he finished, quit or is still going...

[Spirit Walker]

10K got off the trail early. I don't know why.

[Mags]

When the above happens, it makes me question why people are doing the CDT as a thru-hike in the first place!

Fires, snow, avalanche danger in certain years. Thru-hikers complaining that they were forced on a schedule and hated the CDT (that last part makes me sad; but the CDT is not for everyone esp if they enjoy a hike with more infrastructure and community)

I think a two-year section hike is the way to do the CDT esp if you like doing your own thing.

[Dogwood]

As usual, Mags is demonstrating his magnitude of magnanimous magnificence.


Yup. +1

[Venchka]

Mags,
We've talked about CDT Chunk hikes before. How would your two year section hike work?
I'm thinking in terms of 2 month chunks which probably means 3 summers.
Your thoughts?

Wayne


Sent from somewhere around here.

[Mags]

Me? I would start at Glacier around July 15th and walk to Rawlins with its easy transportation options.

The following year, I'd walk from Rawlins around mid-August, get to the Colorado high country when the worse of the t-storms are starting to pass and be over Cumbres Pass well before the chances of early winter hits and take it nice and mellow through New Mexico.

Just noticed you said three years. If three years, I'm not 100% sure, but Rawlins in later August to Cumbress Pass would probably work really well. Relatively easy transportation in reach via public transit. The following year, mid-september at Cumbress Pass and chase fall down into New Mexico. But I love Fall.

Further edits: Or, July 15th from Glacier to Yellowstone NP (Imagine there are transportation options to Jackson Hole, WY from there or Bozeman, MT?). Yellowstone to Berthoud Pass, CO starting around July 20th (WInter Park, CO should have transit options) Berthoud Pass, CO to the Border starting around mid-August.

Just some ideas anyway....

[Venchka]

Thanks. Good food for thought.
Commencing serious CDT deliberations.

Wayne


Sent from somewhere around here.

[Paddlefoot]

So...this got me thinking - earlier in 2015 I considered asking for a sabbatical to attempt a SOBO hike. I watched the Flattop Mountain Snotel every day all winter and fantasized about thru-hiking. Life and responsibility got in the way, of course.

But I'm wondering - did more folks do SOBO hikes this year do to the lower snowpack in Glacier?

[San Juan Ron]

I don't know about 2016, but the past 2 years have seen lots of early CDT hikers "surprised" by the very heavy snow in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado. I probably gave 15-20 CDT hikers rides the past two years in June and they were shocked by the snow depth with most of them departing the CDT in the San Juan Mountains (many were from outside the U.S.). Keep a keen eye on the snow depths, SNOTEL sites, and especially locals providing info. This past year we were well below average until late-April when it snowed virtually everyday until early-June which significantly increased snow depths along the CT/CDT. Ron

[Venchka]

I got a good chuckle yesterday. A Houston roofing company is running an ad on the radio. "Don't wait until El Nino blows your roof off. The 1997 El Nino caused months long delays getting roof repairs done."
Good grief.
Has anyone blamed the flooding in South Carolina on El Nino yet?
Planning to do anything on the CDT/CT now for 2016 is folly.

Wayne

[Dogwood]

When the above happens, it makes me question why people are doing the CDT as a thru-hike in the first place!

Fires, snow, avalanche danger in certain years. Thru-hikers complaining that they were forced on a schedule and hated the CDT (that last part makes me sad; but the CDT is not for everyone esp if they enjoy a hike with more infrastructure and community)




I think a two-year section hike is the way to do the CDT esp if you like doing your own thing.

You omitted a very simple significant other reason for shortening a CDT thru....skipping miles for the REAL sake of simply skipping miles.....to shorten the trail.....because you can!




There should be significantly more interest and appropriate responses that encourages MORE section hiking possibly in large chunks on all the TC trails but, perhaps, particularly the CDT with all it's laterals, alternates, HUGE AWESOME NPs, National Forests and Wilderness Areas. There is entirely too much glorification of thru-hiking on all the TC trails.