I'm not quite sure what we're arguing about any more but I'm drawn to this trainwreck of a thread in any case. We're compelled to argue from our own unique perspective. I'm more interested in the hiker who quits 1/3 or 1/2 way up the trail, and what sort of preparation might have prevented that.
If a hiker spends big $$$, quits his/her job, travels to Springer and quits a few days later, that is a special kind of stupid that neither saddens nor concerns me. To do such a thing requires money and privilege beyond my reckoning. I shed no tears for such folk. More money than brains, I say.
So, what are the odds for your typical, happy weekend warrior? How many consecutive days must one carry a pack before one has walked "a long distance?" Mags cites a figure of 5-7 days. By that standard, I was ill-prepared. Multiple short treks does not equal one long one. I knew that, but took the chance anyway.
Long-distance hiking was something I had to learn to like, and that learning took years and years. Maybe it was just a matter of growing up. To this day I'm amazed at those who claim to have never had a negative experience on a hike. I can't imagine that but am haunted by it. Something tells me there's a truth in there that I could stand to learn.