Maine has a way of chewing people up and spitting them out. 25% of SOBO's don't even make it through the 100 mile wilderness. If you don't think that applies to you, you are a fool.
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When looking for this kind of advice, blunt and direct should be expected. Statistics certainly don't apply to you until you become one, ignoring them ensures you do. The premise of your initial question is sound, however discounting basic knowledge like the statistical realities of what you are facing is not.
You can be in as good a shape as 21 years on the planet will allow, but it will not stop you from breaking bones, tearing muscles/tendons, developing infected blisters, blowing out critical limb joints, cuts and minor injuries that turn septic, slips/falls, diseases/viruses carried by insects, parasites/viruses carried by animals you don't even have to see to be exposed to, ingesting any number of things that can make you so ill you will die without medical treatment, all of these random things conspire to take one off the trail presuming they are survived.
Then there are the hubris issues; taking a wrong turn that allows one to become lost, not planning well for resupply, running out of water without any clue where a water source is, lack of knowledge in setting up camp or new gear, figuring you are stronger than the rain swollen stream you want to cross and forgetting just a few inches of fast moving water will take you off your feet, widow makers, developing hypothermia due to improper preparations, not understanding the rules of the area where you are at any one specific time and interface with the authority that will enforce them. These are all things that are only preventable by the hiker that will impact finishing.
Then there are other issues like running out of funds, the effects of cheap or inappropriate gear, other people, weather, and other seemingly minor things that will affect mileage or the desire to continue.
An 80% failure rate should be a concern of some magnitude, certainly in discovering what issues comprise that percentage. Understanding failures typically makes one better prepared to succeed, dismissing them typically adds one to the larger percentage group. So far you have gotten some pretty good advice people have spent decades accumulating the experience to provide. As RocDoc said, its reality... pure and simple.
Have a great walk!
I was going to just walk away from this thread, but something about Ben's dismissive attitude, and seemingly lack of respect for nature, made me have the genuine fear that this kid will become part of a different AT statistic - The ones who don't make it home. The trail is not all Kumbaya around the campfire - It is hard work and it can be a very dangerous place. If you listen to nothing else, listen to this bit of advice. You are not immortal and the trail is not a game. Sometimes, no amount of preparation can keep you safe from one bad decision.
We are coming up on the 3 yr anniversary of one such event on the AT. I never met the young man, but I have the utmost respect for the way he lived his life. Through his mother's journal I have learned that he was a very hard worker with an amazing work ethic. He trained and prepped and was funny and smart. From his friends I have learned he was one of the most positive people on the trail and was well liked by many, and loved by his close trail family. Before I tell this story, Ben, I want you to know I am telling this story in an effort to get it through your head that it is not all about how fit you are. I am telling you this story because it is simply an example of how one small decision can have a huge impact. Had this decision been made on a different day, at a different time, the results would probably have been different. In this instance, the results were fatal.
*This example is in no way meant to spark a debate over what decisions could have been made. It is merely a very sad example to show how one small decision can have a huge and very unintentional result.*
I am talking about an AT hiker from the 2012 class - Parkside. He started his journey down at Springer and had made it all the way up to Maine and was going strong! He was about 200 miles from the end of the trail, with many more trails in his future. At the end of a long day of hiking, he set up his tent at a gorgeous pond. He was hiking with others, but made the decision to go for a swim by himself. This is a decision that I myself have been very guilty of and am in no way judging his decision - it is one that I have been lucky to get away with and will always remember from here on.
It is speculated that his legs possibly cramped up from the cold water, or the 20 miles he hiked that day, or the lack of potassium. Regardless, he was unable to save himself. He yelled and it alerted his friends. In spite of their amazing and selfless efforts, they couldn't save him. Parkside had done everything right, had the right attitude... But, one small decision had a major impact on not just hike, but on his life and the lives of all who loved him. One decision toward the end of his hike. That is how quickly things can change out there - There is no safety net. The advice you are receiving about the trail is all very good advice. The more you listen and mentally prepare, the better your odds.
Parkside would have been just a little older than you, Ben. He had his whole life ahead of him. I have no doubts that his family is still a bit lost without him. This past March, one of the hikers, Achilles, wrote a follow-up to his trail journal. He was there with Parkside, and he was a friend of Parkside's. http://www.trailjournals.com/entry.cfm?id=483104
I would honestly hate for your hike to be anything other than what you want it to be. More importantly, I hope you choose to listen to the advice here - Advice that can improve the odds of your success on the trail. Yes, a positive mental attitude is a major asset. However, there is a huge difference between taking information and using it to turn your hike into a positive, and dismissing something you don't want to hear because you feel it is too negative.
Just gotta say I know that was heart felt, Bravo! She's right dude.Originally Posted by Water Rat
More like using statistics to say don't fail to use your seatbelt (ever) and don't get in a car with someone who has been drinking behind the wheel.
That will increase you chance of living until old age.
But I am sure you know that.
What things can you do to increase your chances of a having an enjoyable and successful (However you define that) thru hike?
Buying a light (ish) pack is one, but it is rather far down the list.
Water Rat your response was spot on. Well done. To the younger Hikers out there PLEASE listen to advice its not that old vs young thing. Its respect for Nature and what it can & will toss at ya.We're all survivors till it ends bad.
Hi Ben! I plan to thru-hike after my graduation next May 2016 too. I haven't decided if I'm doing NOBO or SOBO, but I'm so close to Georgia, I'd like to start at Springer.
I feel you Ben. Take the positive road( I so dig that!) but don't let your positive approach blind you to what Water Rat is saying. It's not that you have to include yourself in those 80-90% AT thru-hiker wannabe but fail stats it's the dismissive attitude that you can't LEARN something from those stats. I'm the same way as you in that I never considered myself in those 80-90% stats when I did my first AT NOBO thru BUT that DID NOT keep me from realizing why so many are in that 80-90% category. Those realizations assisted me in happily completing my at theru-hikes by avoiding many of those same pitfalls! If experience is a great teacher one can fast track life's lessons by learning from the experiences of others! Of course, don't place a major focus on those stats. Place the major focus on the hows and whys of that 10-20% that realize their AT Thru hike goals. Take clues on how those 10-20 % behave but also take a few general clues on how not to behave from those other 80-90% too!
Those realizations assisted me in happily completing my AT thru-hikes by avoiding many of those same pitfalls that those 80-90% experienced!
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